Impacts of Rainfall Variability, Land Use and Land Cover Change on Stream Flow of the Black Volta Basin, West Africa
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area Presentation
2.2. Rainfall Data Analysis
2.2.1. Aridity Index
2.2.2. Standardized Precipitation Index
2.2.3. Mann-Kendall Trend Test
2.2.4. Sen’s Slope Estimator
2.3. Land Use and Land Cover Change Maps Development
2.4. Brief Description of the SWAT Model
2.4.1. Surface Runoff
2.4.2. Model Input
Digital Elevation Model
Soil Data
River Discharge
2.4.3. Black Volta Basin Model Set Up
- Goodness of fit or coefficient of determination (R2) between the observation and the final best simulation:
- And the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient (Nash et al., 1970) [47]:
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Aridity Index Profile of the Black Volta and the Standardired Precipitation Index
3.2. Rainfall Trend Analysis
3.3. Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis
3.4. SWAT Modeling Results
3.4.1. Sensitivity Analysis
3.4.2. Calibration and Validation
3.4.3. Model Uncertainties
3.4.4. Changes in Seasonal Stream Flow Due to LULC
3.4.5. Changes in Stream Flow Components Due to LULC
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Aridity Index
Standardized Precipitation Index
Mann-Kendall Trend Test
Sen’s Slope Estimator
References
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Country | Gauging Station | Lat (°N) | Lon (°W) | Elevation (m) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ghana | Sunyani | 7.3328 | −2.3281 | 296 |
Ghana | Wenchi | 7.75 | −2.1 | 322 |
Ghana | Bui | 8.2361 | −2.2772 | 176 |
Ghana | Bole | 9.0319 | −2.4762 | 295 |
Ghana | Wa | 10.0667 | −2.5 | 262 |
Burkina Faso | Batie | 9.8739 | −2.9213 | 298 |
Burkina Faso | Diebougou | 10.9667 | −3.25 | 298 |
Burkina Faso | Boura | 11.0333 | −2.5 | 306 |
Burkina Faso | Dano | 11.1490 | −3.2931 | 304 |
Burkina Faso | Boromo | 11.75 | −2.9333 | 260 |
Burkina Faso | Bondoukuy | 11.8450 | −3.7639 | 326 |
Burkina Faso | Bobo-Dioulasso | 11.1605 | −4.3298 | 374 |
Burkina Faso | Bomborokuy | 12.9972 | −3.9496 | 344 |
Gauging Station | Tau | p-Value | Zs | Qs med or Sen’s Slope Estimator | Constant B |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sunyani | 0.156 | 0.1864 | 1.321 | 0.3437 | 93.12 |
Wenchi | 0.073 | 0.5399 | 0.6129 | 0.1197 | 101.68 |
Bui | −0.0724 | 0.4535 | −0.7497 | −0.1283 | 94.11 |
Bole | 0.18 | 0.1271 | 1.55 | 0.3961 | 82.17 |
Wa | 0.127 | 0.2819 | 1.076 | 0.1749 | 83.29 |
Batie | −0.0635 | 0.5953 | −0.531 | −0.1559 | 88.69 |
Diebougou | 0.106 | 0.3686 | 0.899 | 0.1178 | 83.47 |
Boura | 0.279 | 0.0171 | 2.38 | 0.3218 | 70.02 |
Dano | 0.143 | 0.2254 | 1.21 | 0.222 | 72.03 |
Boromo | 0.113 | 0.3403 | 0.954 | 0.1754 | 68.17 |
Bondoukuy | −0.132 | 0.6728 | −0.422 | −0.0936 | 71.85 |
Bobo-Dioulasso | −0.0635 | 0.5952 | −0.5312 | −0.1683 | 84.75 |
Bomborokuy | −0.126 | 0.2584 | −1.13 | −0.2106 | 62.73 |
Year | Overall Accuracy | Kappa Coefficient |
---|---|---|
1987 | 90.20 | 88.57 |
2000 | 93.06 | 91.90 |
2013 | 99.18 | 99.05 |
Land Cover Type | Area Coverage (km2) | Area Coverage (%) | 1987–2000 | 2000–2013 | 1987–2013 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1987 | 2000 | 2013 | 1987 | 2000 | 2013 | Change (%) | Change Rate (%/year) | Change (%) | Change Rate (%/year) | Change (%) | Change Rate (%/year) | |
Bare Land | 13231.9 | 11279.37 | 18842.86 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 12.15 | −14.76 | −1.05 | 67.06 | 4.79 | 42.4 | 1.57 |
Urban Areas | 9619.8 | 16537.32 | 22030.4 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 14.21 | 71.91 | 5.14 | 33.22 | 2.37 | 129.01 | 4.78 |
Water Bodies | 101.7 | 872.6904 | 939.15 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.61 | 758.1 | 54.15 | 7.62 | 0.54 | 823.45 | 30.5 |
Agricultural Land | 36125.7 | 36796.48 | 47710.4 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 30.77 | 1.86 | 0.13 | 29.66 | 2.12 | 32.07 | 1.19 |
Grass Land | 76253.9 | 74198.44 | 41151.4 | 49.2 | 47.9 | 26.54 | −2.7 | −0.19 | −44.54 | −3.18 | −46.03 | −1.7 |
Forest Deciduous | 14034.6 | 14398.31 | 23063.6 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 14.87 | 2.57 | 0.19 | 60.18 | 4.3 | 64.33 | 2.38 |
Forest Evergreen | 5708.9 | 967.4019 | 1338.64 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.86 | −83.05 | −5.93 | 38.38 | 2.74 | −76.55 | −2.84 |
Parameter Name | Definition | Absolute SWAT Values | Fitted Value | Minimum Value | Maximum Value | Sensitivity Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R__SOL_K | Saturated hydraulic conductivity | 0–2000 | −0.999737 | −1.009404 | −0.966056 | 1 |
V__MSK_CO2 | Calibration coefficient used to control impact of the storage time constant for low flow | 0–10 | 3.117479 | 2.870465 | 5.470611 | 2 |
V__SURLAG | Surface runoff lag time | 0.05–24 | 22.728235 | 22.493849 | 22.75284 | 3 |
V__MSK_CO1 | Calibration coefficient used to control impact of the storage time constant for normal flow | 0–10 | 10.726233 | 9.479877 | 14.147874 | 4 |
R__SOL_AWC | Available water capacity of the soil layer | 0–1 | 0.201121 | 0.145896 | 0.2093 | 5 |
R__CN2 | SCS runoff curve number f | −0.2–0.2 | −0.537993 | −0.552411 | −0.505139 | 6 |
A__GWQMN | Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur (mm) | 0–5000 | 73.4655 | 73.35611 | 74.378479 | 7 |
V__ALPHA_BF | Base flow alpha factor (days) | 0–1 | −0.155831 | −0.160484 | −0.153358 | 8 |
V__GW DELAY | Groundwater delay (days) | 0–500 | 1.087874 | 0.994085 | 1.122037 | 9 |
V__RCHRG_DP | Deep aquifer percolation fraction | 0–1 | 0.159342 | 0.148055 | 0.176487 | 10 |
V__ESCO | Soil evaporation compensation factor | 0–1 | 0.599675 | 0.595305 | 0.646715 | 11 |
V__CH_N2 | Manning’s “n” value for the main channel | −0.01–0.3 | 0.267461 | 0.242134 | 0.271966 | 12 |
Period | Average Monthly Flow (m3/s) | Standard Deviation (m3/s) | Model Performance | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | Simulated | Measured | Simulated | P-Factor | R-Factor | R2 | NS | |
Calibration (2000–2005) | 223.16 | 252.70 | 306.38 | 274.3 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.91 | 0.9 |
Validation (2006–2010) | 447.99 | 371.23 | 730.94 | 433.84 | 0.2 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.7 |
Period | Average Monthly Flow (m3/s) | Standard Deviation (m3/s) | Model Performance | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | Simulated | Measured | Simulated | P-Factor | R-Factor | R2 | NS | |
Calibration (1990–1995) | 172.28 | 161.79 | 234.95 | 212.24 | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.9 |
Validation (1996–2000) | 229.18 | 254.37 | 338.39 | 394.68 | 0.64 | 0.9 | 0.85 | 0.7 |
LULC 2000 | LULC 2013 | Mean Monthly Flow Change | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dry Months (Jan, Feb, Mar) | Wet Months (Aug, Sep, Oct) | Dry Months (Jan, Feb, Mar) | Wet Months (Aug, Sep, Oct) | Dry | Wet |
238.62 | 2969.02 | 253.42 | 2995.35 | +6% | +1% |
Stream Flow Components (m3/s) and ET (mm) | LULC 2000 | LULC 2013 | Changes (%) |
---|---|---|---|
SURF_Q | 376.7 | 477.3 | 27% |
LAT_Q | 5.7 | 6.8 | 19% |
GW_Q | 828 | 775.1 | −6% |
WATER_YIELD | 1210.4 | 1259.2 | 4% |
ET | 521.6 | 546.7 | 4.59% |
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Akpoti, K.; Antwi, E.O.; Kabo-bah, A.T. Impacts of Rainfall Variability, Land Use and Land Cover Change on Stream Flow of the Black Volta Basin, West Africa. Hydrology 2016, 3, 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology3030026
Akpoti K, Antwi EO, Kabo-bah AT. Impacts of Rainfall Variability, Land Use and Land Cover Change on Stream Flow of the Black Volta Basin, West Africa. Hydrology. 2016; 3(3):26. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology3030026
Chicago/Turabian StyleAkpoti, Komlavi, Eric Ofosu Antwi, and Amos T. Kabo-bah. 2016. "Impacts of Rainfall Variability, Land Use and Land Cover Change on Stream Flow of the Black Volta Basin, West Africa" Hydrology 3, no. 3: 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology3030026