Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models
AbstractCoherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-speciﬁc mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-speciﬁc data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality. View Full-Text
Share & Cite This Article
Shair, S.; Purcal, S.; Parr, N. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models. Risks 2017, 5, 16.
Shair S, Purcal S, Parr N. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models. Risks. 2017; 5(1):16.Chicago/Turabian Style
Shair, Syazreen; Purcal, Sachi; Parr, Nick. 2017. "Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models." Risks 5, no. 1: 16.
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.