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Mathematics 2017, 5(3), 46; doi:10.3390/math5030046

The Catastrophe of Electric Vehicle Sales

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University, 496 Lomita Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
Academic Editor: Indranil SenGupta
Received: 9 August 2017 / Revised: 30 August 2017 / Accepted: 11 September 2017 / Published: 17 September 2017
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Electric vehicles have undergone a recent faddy trend in the United States and Europe, and several recent publications trumpet the continued rise of electric vehicles citing steadily-climbing monthly vehicle sales. The broad purpose of this study is to examine this optimism with some degree of mathematical rigor. Specifically, the methodology will use catastrophe theory to explore the possibility of a sudden, seemingly-unexplainable crash in vehicle sales. The study begins by defining optimal system equations that well-model the available sales data. Next, these optimal models are used to investigate the potential response to a slow dynamic acting on the relatively faster dynamic of the optimal system equations. Catastrophe theory indicates a potential sudden crash in sales when a slow dynamic is at-work. It is noteworthy that the prediction can be made even while sales are increasing. View Full-Text
Keywords: electric vehicles; gas prices; catastrophe theory; least squares; extrapolation; equilibrium point; jump theory electric vehicles; gas prices; catastrophe theory; least squares; extrapolation; equilibrium point; jump theory

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Sands, T. The Catastrophe of Electric Vehicle Sales. Mathematics 2017, 5, 46.

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