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Climate 2017, 5(1), 12; doi:10.3390/cli5010012

Reliability and Robustness Analysis of the Masinga Dam under Uncertainty

Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Yang Zhang
Received: 30 December 2016 / Revised: 13 February 2017 / Accepted: 14 February 2017 / Published: 21 February 2017
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Abstract

Kenya’s water abstraction must meet the projected growth in municipal and irrigation demand by the end of 2030 in order to achieve the country’s industrial and economic development plan. The Masinga dam, on the Tana River, is the key to meeting this goal to satisfy the growing demands whilst also continuing to provide hydroelectric power generation. This study quantitatively assesses the reliability and robustness of the Masinga dam system under uncertain future supply and demand using probabilistic climate and population projections, and examines how long-term planning may improve the longevity of the dam. River flow and demand projections are used alongside each other as inputs to the dam system simulation model linked to an optimisation engine to maximise water availability. Water availability after demand satisfaction is assessed for future years, and the projected reliability of the system is calculated for selected years. The analysis shows that maximising power generation on a short-term year-by-year basis achieves 80%, 50% and 1% reliability by 2020, 2025 and 2030 onwards, respectively. Longer term optimal planning, however, has increased system reliability to up to 95% in 2020, 80% in 2025, and more than 40% in 2030 onwards. In addition, increasing the capacity of the reservoir by around 25% can significantly improve the robustness of the system for all future time periods. This study provides a platform for analysing the implication of different planning and management of Masinga dam and suggests that careful consideration should be given to account for growing municipal needs and irrigation schemes in both the immediate and the associated Tana River basin. View Full-Text
Keywords: Tana river basin; planning under uncertainty; climate change; reliability; robustness; water resource; Masinga reservoir; integrated modelling Tana river basin; planning under uncertainty; climate change; reliability; robustness; water resource; Masinga reservoir; integrated modelling
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Postle-Floyd, H.; Erfani, T. Reliability and Robustness Analysis of the Masinga Dam under Uncertainty. Climate 2017, 5, 12.

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