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Climate 2016, 4(4), 53; doi:10.3390/cli4040053

Forecasted Changes in West Africa Photovoltaic Energy Output by 2045

1
Institut de Mathématiques et de Sciences Physiques, Université de Porto-Novo, BP 613 Porto-Novo, Benin
2
Laboratoire d’Hydrologie Appliquée (LHA), Université d’Abomey–Calavi, 01 BP 4521 Cotonou, Bénin
3
Laboratoire de Physiques et Chimies de l’Environnement, Université Ouaga I Professeur Joseph Ki-Zerbo, 03 BP 7021 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
4
Laboratoire des Energies Thermiques et Renouvelables, Université Ouaga I Professeur Joseph Ki–Zerbo, 03 BP 7021 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
These authors contributed equally to this work.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Yang Zhang
Received: 1 July 2016 / Revised: 30 September 2016 / Accepted: 9 October 2016 / Published: 17 October 2016
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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) output in the fifteen countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was analyzed in this paper. Using a set of eight climate models, the trends of solar radiation and temperature between 2006–2100 were examined. Assuming a lifetime of 40 years, the future changes of photovoltaic energy output for the tilted plane receptor compared to 2006–2015 were computed for the whole region. The results show that the trends of solar irradiation are negative except for the Irish Centre for High-End Computing model which predicts a positive trend with a maximum value of 0.17 W/m2/year for Cape Verde and the minimum of −0.06 W/m2/year for Liberia. The minimum of the negative trend is −0.18 W/m2/year predicted by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), developed at the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research for Cape Verde. Furthermore, temperature trends are positive with a maximum of 0.08 K/year predicted by MIROC for Niger and minimum of 0.03 K/year predicted by Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC), Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Climate Meteorology at Hamburg, French National Meteorological Research Center (CNRM) and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA) for Cape Verde. Photovolataic energy output changes show increasing trends in Sierra Leone with 0.013%/year as the maximum. Climate change will lead to a decreasing trend of PV output in the rest of the countries with a minimum of 0.032%/year in Niger. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate model; solar radiation; ambient air temperature changes; solar photovoltaic energy output; ECOWAS climate model; solar radiation; ambient air temperature changes; solar photovoltaic energy output; ECOWAS
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MDPI and ACS Style

Bazyomo, S.D.Y.B.; Agnidé Lawin, E.; Coulibaly, O.; Ouedraogo, A. Forecasted Changes in West Africa Photovoltaic Energy Output by 2045. Climate 2016, 4, 53.

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