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Climate 2016, 4(2), 30; doi:10.3390/cli4020030

Towards Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity on Sea Surface Temperature and Its Response in a Warming World

1
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
2
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
3
Center for Satellite Application and Research (STAR), NOAA NESDIS, College Park, MD 20740, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Christina Anagnostopoulou and Yang Zhang
Received: 25 December 2015 / Revised: 26 April 2016 / Accepted: 10 May 2016 / Published: 23 May 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Extremes: Observations and Impacts)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [5656 KB, uploaded 23 May 2016]   |  

Abstract

Tropical Cyclone (TC) systems affect global ocean heat transport due to mixing of the upper ocean and impact climate dynamics. A higher Sea Surface Temperature (SST), other influencing factors remaining supportive, fuels TC genesis and intensification. The atmospheric thermodynamic profile, especially the sea-air temperature contrast (SAT), also contributes due to heat transfer and affects TC’s maximum surface wind speed (Vmax) explained by enthalpy exchange processes. Studies have shown that SST can approximately be used as a proxy for SAT. As a part of an ongoing effort in this work, we simplistically explored the connection between SST and Vmax from a climatological perspective. Subsequently, estimated Vmax is applied to compute Power Dissipation Index (an upper limit on TC’s destructive potential). The model is developed using long-term observational SST reconstructions employed on three independent SST datasets and validated against an established model. This simple approach excluded physical parameters, such as mixing ratio and atmospheric profile, however, renders it generally suitable to compute potential intensity associated with TCs spatially and weakly temporally and performs well for stronger storms. A futuristic prediction by the HadCM3 climate model under doubled CO2 indicates stronger storm surface wind speeds and rising SST, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. View Full-Text
Keywords: tropical cyclone; sea surface temperature; climate change; power dissipation index; ensemble PPE; statistical model tropical cyclone; sea surface temperature; climate change; power dissipation index; ensemble PPE; statistical model
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Arora, K.; Dash, P. Towards Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity on Sea Surface Temperature and Its Response in a Warming World. Climate 2016, 4, 30.

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