Next Article in Journal
Geospatial Modeling for Investigating Spatial Pattern and Change Trend of Temperature and Rainfall
Next Article in Special Issue
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in the Food Industry—Insights from Product Carbon and Water Footprints
Previous Article in Journal
Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based on a Model Ensemble
Previous Article in Special Issue
The Relationships between Climate Variability and Crop Yield in a Mountainous Environment: A Case Study in Lamjung District, Nepal
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Climate 2016, 4(2), 20; doi:10.3390/cli4020020

Association between Empirically Estimated Monsoon Dynamics and Other Weather Factors and Historical Tea Yields in China: Results from a Yield Response Model

1
Agriculture, Food, and Environment Program, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, 150 Harrison Avenue, Room 108, Boston, MA 02111, USA
2
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA
3
Department of Health and Human Development, Montana State University, P.O. Box 173540, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
4
Department of Chemistry, Pearson Chemical Laboratory, Tufts University, 62 Talbot Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA
5
Department of Anthropology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-7305, USA
6
Tea Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310008, China
7
Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, USA
8
Department of Biology, Barnum Hall, Room 102, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Angelika Ploeger, Sisira S. Withanachchi, Engin Koncagul and Yang Zhang
Received: 10 November 2015 / Revised: 23 March 2016 / Accepted: 25 March 2016 / Published: 8 April 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change on Crops, Foods and Diets)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3619 KB, uploaded 8 April 2016]   |  

Abstract

Farmers in China’s tea-growing regions report that monsoon dynamics and other weather factors are changing and that this is affecting tea harvest decisions. To assess the effect of climate change on tea production in China, this study uses historical weather and production data from 1980 to 2011 to construct a yield response model that estimates the partial effect of weather factors on tea yields in China, with a specific focus on East Asian Monsoon dynamics. Tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kunze) has not been studied using these methods even though it is an important crop for human nutrition and the economic well-being of rural communities in many countries. Previous studies have approximated the monsoon period using historical average onset and retreat dates, which we believe limits our understanding of how changing monsoon patterns affect crop productivity. In our analysis, we instead estimate the monsoon season across China’s tea growing regions empirically by identifying the unknown breakpoints in the year-by-province cumulative precipitation. We find that a 1% increase in the monsoon retreat date is associated with 0.481%–0.535% reduction in tea yield. In the previous year, we also find that a 1% increase in the date of the monsoon retreat is associated with a 0.604% decrease in tea yields. For precipitation, we find that a 1% increase in average daily precipitation occurring during the monsoon period is associated with a 0.184%–0.262% reduction in tea yields. In addition, our models show that 1% increase in the average daily monsoon precipitation from the previous growing season is associated with 0.258%–0.327% decline in yields. We also find that a 1% decrease in solar radiation in the previous growing season is associated with 0.554%-0.864% decrease in tea yields. These findings suggest the need for adaptive management and harvesting strategies given climate change projections and the known negative association between excess rainfall and delayed monsoon retreat on tea quality and yield. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; tea; Camellia sinensis; China; East Asian monsoon; agricultural yields climate change; tea; Camellia sinensis; China; East Asian monsoon; agricultural yields
Figures

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary materials

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Boehm, R.; Cash, S.B.; Anderson, B.T.; Ahmed, S.; Griffin, T.S.; Robbat, A.; Stepp, J.R.; Han, W.; Hazel, M.; Orians, C.M. Association between Empirically Estimated Monsoon Dynamics and Other Weather Factors and Historical Tea Yields in China: Results from a Yield Response Model. Climate 2016, 4, 20.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Climate EISSN 2225-1154 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top