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Systems 2017, 5(1), 6; doi:10.3390/systems5010006

The Climate Change-Road Safety-Economy Nexus: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding Complex Interdependencies

Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA
Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul 34662, Turkey
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Ockie Bosch
Received: 2 August 2016 / Revised: 2 January 2017 / Accepted: 10 January 2017 / Published: 23 January 2017
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [5321 KB, uploaded 23 January 2017]   |  


Road accidents have the highest externality costs to society and to the economy, even when compared to the externality damages associated with air emissions and oil dependency. Road safety is one of the most complicated topics, which involves many interdependencies, and so, a sufficiently thorough analysis of roadway safety will require a novel system-based approach in which the associated feedback relationships and causal effects are given appropriate consideration. The factors affecting accident frequency and severity are highly dependent on economic parameters, environmental factors and weather conditions. In this study, we try to use a system dynamics modeling approach to model the climate change-road safety-economy nexus, thereby investigating the complex interactions among these important areas by tracking how they affect each other over time. For this purpose, five sub-models are developed to model each aspect of the overall nexus and to interact with each other to simulate the overall system. As a result, this comprehensive model can provide a platform for policy makers to test the effectiveness of different policy scenarios to reduce the negative consequences of traffic accidents and improve road safety. View Full-Text
Keywords: road safety; climate change; system dynamics; policy analysis; policy analysis road safety; climate change; system dynamics; policy analysis; policy analysis

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Alirezaei, M.; Onat, N.C.; Tatari, O.; Abdel-Aty, M. The Climate Change-Road Safety-Economy Nexus: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding Complex Interdependencies. Systems 2017, 5, 6.

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