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Atmosphere 2016, 7(2), 22; doi:10.3390/atmos7020022

Changing Trends and Abrupt Features of Extreme Temperature in Mainland China from 1960 to 2010

1,2,†
,
3,†
,
1,†
,
4
and
1,*
1
Institute of Eco-environment and Agrometeorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, No. 46 Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing 100081, China
2
Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast Meteorological Disaster Warning and Assessment, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3
Gansu Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA/Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
4
National Meteorological Information Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
These authors contributed equally to this work.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: John Boland
Received: 10 November 2015 / Revised: 17 January 2016 / Accepted: 18 January 2016 / Published: 2 February 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variable Forecasting)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1474 KB, uploaded 2 February 2016]   |  

Abstract

Studies based on the 10th (90th) percentiles as thresholds have been presented to assess moderate extremes in China and globally. However, there has been notably little research on the occurrences of high extremes of warm days and hot days (TX95p and TX99p) and cold nights and very cold nights (TN05p and TN01p), based on the 95th and 99th (5th and 1st) percentiles of the daily maximum (minimum) temperature data at a certain station in the period 1971–2000, which have more direct impacts on society and the ecosystem. The trends analyses of cool nights or warm days are based upon the hypothesis that expects a linear trend and no abrupt change. However, abrupt changes in the climate, especially in extreme temperatures, have been pointed to as a major threat to ecosystem services. This study demonstrates that (1) the mean frequencies of TX95p and TX99p increased by 1.80 day/10 year and 0.62 day/10 year, respectively, and that those of TN05p and TN01p decreased by 3.18 day/10 year and 1.01 day/10 year, respectively, in mainland China. Additionally, the TX95p and TX99p increased significantly by 50.42% and 58.21%, respectively, while the TN05p and TN01p of all of the stations decreased significantly by 83.76% and 76.48%, respectively. Finally, (2) the TX95p and TX99p trends underwent abrupt changes in the 1990s or 2000s, but the trends of TN05p and TN01p experienced abrupt changes in the late 1970s and early 1980s. After the abrupt change points, the trend of warm and hot days increased more rapidly than before in most regions, but the trend of cold days and very cold days decreased more slowly than before in most regions, which indicates a greater risk of heat waves in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: temperature extreme; heat waves; global warming; climate change; extreme weather events; maximum temperature; minimum temperature temperature extreme; heat waves; global warming; climate change; extreme weather events; maximum temperature; minimum temperature
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Fang, S.; Qi, Y.; Han, G.; Li, Q.; Zhou, G. Changing Trends and Abrupt Features of Extreme Temperature in Mainland China from 1960 to 2010. Atmosphere 2016, 7, 22.

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