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Remote Sens. 2014, 6(6), 5520-5540; doi:10.3390/rs6065520

Statistical Modeling of Sea Ice Concentration Using Satellite Imagery and Climate Reanalysis Data in the Barents and Kara Seas, 1979–2012

1
Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Pukyong National University, 45 Yongsoro, Namgu, Busan 608-737, Korea
2
National Meteorological Satellite Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, 64-18 Guamgil, Gwanghyewonmyeon, Jincheongun, Chungcheongbukdo 365-831, Korea
3
Geospatial Information Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, 254 Simindaero, Dongangu, Anyangsi, Gyeonggido 431-712, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 24 February 2014 / Revised: 5 June 2014 / Accepted: 6 June 2014 / Published: 16 June 2014
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Abstract

Extensive sea ice over Arctic regions is largely involved in heat, moisture, and momentum exchanges between the atmosphere and ocean. Some previous studies have been conducted to develop statistical models for the status of Arctic sea ice and showed considerable possibilities to explain the impacts of climate changes on the sea ice extent. However, the statistical models require improvements to achieve better predictions by incorporating techniques that can deal with temporal variation of the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate factors. In this paper, we describe the statistical approaches by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and a time-series method for modeling sea ice concentration using satellite imagery and climate reanalysis data for the Barents and Kara Seas during 1979–2012. The OLS regression model could summarize the overall climatological characteristics in the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate variables. We also introduced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models because the sea ice concentration is such a long-range dataset that the relationships may not be explained by a single equation of the OLS regression. Temporally varying relationships between sea ice concentration and the climate factors such as skin temperature, sea surface temperature, total column liquid water, total column water vapor, instantaneous moisture flux, and low cloud cover were modeled by the ARIMA method, which considerably improved the prediction accuracies. Our method may also be worth consideration when forecasting future sea ice concentration by using the climate data provided by general circulation models (GCM). View Full-Text
Keywords: sea ice concentration; climate reanalysis; statistical model; time series sea ice concentration; climate reanalysis; statistical model; time series
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Ahn, J.; Hong, S.; Cho, J.; Lee, Y.-W.; Lee, H. Statistical Modeling of Sea Ice Concentration Using Satellite Imagery and Climate Reanalysis Data in the Barents and Kara Seas, 1979–2012. Remote Sens. 2014, 6, 5520-5540.

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