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Remote Sens. 2013, 5(11), 5969-5998; doi:10.3390/rs5115969
Article

Simulating Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Land Surface Temperature in Dhaka, Bangladesh

1,* , 2
, 3
, 4
 and 5
1 Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction (IRDR), Department of Earth Sciences, University College London (UCL), Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK 2 School of Civil Engineering and the Built Environment, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia 3 School of Geography & Environmental Science, Building 11, Clayton Campus, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia 4 BUET-Japan Institute of Disaster Prevention and Urban Safety (BUET-JIDPUS), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh 5 Department of Transportation Engineering, College of Engineering, Ajou University, San 5 Woncheon-Dong, Yeongtong-Ku, Suwon 443-749, Korea
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 7 September 2013 / Revised: 31 October 2013 / Accepted: 31 October 2013 / Published: 15 November 2013
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Abstract

Despite research that has been conducted elsewhere, little is known, to-date, about land cover dynamics and their impacts on land surface temperature (LST) in fast growing mega cities of developing countries. Landsat satellite images of 1989, 1999, and 2009 of Dhaka Metropolitan (DMP) area were used for analysis. This study first identified patterns of land cover changes between the periods and investigated their impacts on LST; second, applied artificial neural network to simulate land cover changes for 2019 and 2029; and finally, estimated their impacts on LST in respective periods. Simulation results show that if the current trend continues, 56% and 87% of the DMP area will likely to experience temperatures in the range of greater than or equal to 30 °C in 2019 and 2029, respectively. The findings possess a major challenge for urban planners working in similar contexts. However, the technique presented in this paper would help them to quantify the impacts of different scenarios (e.g., vegetation loss to accommodate urban growth) on LST and consequently to devise appropriate policy measures.
Keywords: land cover change; land surface temperature; urban heat island effect; NDVI; artificial neural network; Markov chain; Dhaka land cover change; land surface temperature; urban heat island effect; NDVI; artificial neural network; Markov chain; Dhaka
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Ahmed, B.; Kamruzzaman, M.; Zhu, X.; Rahman, M.S.; Choi, K. Simulating Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Land Surface Temperature in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Remote Sens. 2013, 5, 5969-5998.

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