Next Article in Journal
A Values-Based Approach to Exploring Synergies between Livestock Farming and Landscape Conservation in Galicia (Spain)
Next Article in Special Issue
Going Public and Industrial Upgrading of Traditional Clusters in Developing Countries: Rethinking the Dynamics of the ‘Jinjiang Model’ in China
Previous Article in Journal
The Behavioral Response to Location Based Services: An Examination of the Influence of Social and Environmental Benefits, and Privacy
Article Menu
Issue 11 (November) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Sustainability 2017, 9(11), 1975; doi:10.3390/su9111975

Forecasting the Energy Consumption of China’s Manufacturing Using a Homologous Grey Prediction Model

1
College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
2
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Electronic Commerce & Supply Chain System, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 13 September 2017 / Revised: 24 October 2017 / Accepted: 27 October 2017 / Published: 31 October 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Transition from China-Made to China-Innovation )
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1247 KB, uploaded 31 October 2017]   |  

Abstract

With the rapid development of China’s manufacturing, energy consumption has increased rapidly, and this has become a major bottleneck affecting the sustainable development of China’s economy. This paper deduces and constructs a homologous grey prediction model with one variable and one first order equation (HGEM(1,1)) for forecasting the total energy consumption of China’s manufacturing based on the Grey system theory. Both parameter estimation (PE) and the deduction of the final restored expression (FRE) of the HGEM(1,1) model are all from the time response expression of the whitenization differential equation, which solves the ‘non-homologous’ defects of PE and FRE with traditional grey prediction models. HGEM(1,1) has good performance and can unbiasedly simulate a homogeneous/non-homogeneous exponential function sequence and a linear function sequence. Then, the HGEM(1,1)model is used to simulate and forecast the total energy consumption of China’s energy manufacturing, and the results show that the comprehensive performance of this model is much better than that of the classic Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, GM(1,1) for short and the frequently-used Discrete Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, DGM(1,1) for short. Finally, we forecast the total energy consumption of China’s manufacturing industry during the years 2018–2024. The results show that the total energy consumption in China’s manufacturing is slowing down but is still too large. For this, some measures, such as optimizing the manufacturing structure and speeding up the development and promotion of energy saving and emission reduction technologies, to ensure the effective supply of energy in China’s manufacturing industry are suggested. View Full-Text
Keywords: the energy consumption of China’s manufacturing; homologous grey prediction model; simulation and prediction; suggestions for sustainable development of China’s manufacturing the energy consumption of China’s manufacturing; homologous grey prediction model; simulation and prediction; suggestions for sustainable development of China’s manufacturing
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Zeng, B.; Zhou, M.; Zhang, J. Forecasting the Energy Consumption of China’s Manufacturing Using a Homologous Grey Prediction Model. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1975.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Sustainability EISSN 2071-1050 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top