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Sustainability 2018, 10(1), 256; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10010256

Influencing Factors and Development Trend Analysis of China Electric Grid Investment Demand Based on a Panel Co-Integration Model

1
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China
3
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
4
State Power Economic Research Institute China State Grid Corp, Beijing 102209, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 8 December 2017 / Revised: 13 January 2018 / Accepted: 15 January 2018 / Published: 19 January 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Electric Power Systems Research)
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Abstract

Electric grid investment demand analysis is significant to reasonably arranging construction funds for the electric grid and reduce costs. This paper used the panel data of electric grid investment from 23 provinces of China between 2004 and 2016 as samples to analyze the influence between electric grid investment demand and GDP, population scale, social electricity consumption, installed electrical capacity, and peak load based on co-integration tests. We find that GDP and peak load have positive influences on electric grid investment demand, but the impact of population scale, social electricity consumption, and installed electrical capacity on electric grid investment is not remarkable. We divide different regions in China into the eastern region, central region, and western region to analyze influence factors of electric grid investment, finally obtaining key factors in the eastern, central, and western regions. In the end, according to the analysis of key factors, we make a prediction about China’s electric grid investment for 2020 in different scenarios. The results offer a certain understanding for the development trend of China’s electric grid investment and contribute to the future development of electric grid investment. View Full-Text
Keywords: electric grid investment; influencing factors; panel co-integration; multiple scenarios electric grid investment; influencing factors; panel co-integration; multiple scenarios
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Li, J.; Chen, L.; Xiang, Y.; Li, J.; Peng, D. Influencing Factors and Development Trend Analysis of China Electric Grid Investment Demand Based on a Panel Co-Integration Model. Sustainability 2018, 10, 256.

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