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Forests 2017, 8(12), 471; https://doi.org/10.3390/f8120471

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

1
Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Tree Breeding by Molecular Design, National Engineering Laboratory for Tree Breeding, Key Laboratory of Genetics and Breeding in Forest Trees and Ornamental Plants, Ministry of Education, College of Biological Sciences and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2
Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 October 2017 / Revised: 17 November 2017 / Accepted: 28 November 2017 / Published: 1 December 2017
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Ecology and Management)
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Abstract

Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L.) seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical) covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; seed zone; local adaptation; spatial shifts; conifer climate change; seed zone; local adaptation; spatial shifts; conifer
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Hu, X.-G.; Wang, T.; Liu, S.-S.; Jiao, S.-Q.; Jia, K.-H.; Zhou, S.-S.; Jin, Y.; Li, Y.; El-Kassaby, Y.A.; Mao, J.-F. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models. Forests 2017, 8, 471.

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