Next Article in Journal
Fire Effects on Historical Wildfire Refugia in Contemporary Wildfires
Previous Article in Journal
Effects of Linear Disturbances and Fire Severity on Velvet Leaf Blueberry Abundance, Vigor, and Berry Production in Recently Burned Jack Pine Forests
Article Menu
Issue 10 (October) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Forests 2017, 8(10), 399; https://doi.org/10.3390/f8100399

Effects of Climate Change on the Potentially Suitable Climatic Geographical Range of Liriodendron chinense

1
Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA
3
Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66047, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 2 August 2017 / Revised: 12 October 2017 / Accepted: 17 October 2017 / Published: 19 October 2017
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3073 KB, uploaded 20 October 2017]   |  

Abstract

Identifying the potentially suitable climatic geographical range for Liriodendron chinense (L. chinense) and predicting its responses to climate change is urgently necessary, as L. chinense is an important tertiary relict tree species. In this study, we simulated the potentially suitable climatic habitat of L. chinense in China using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. We found that the MaxEnt model was highly accurate with an average training Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.912. Annual precipitation and mean temperature of the driest quarter are the main factors controlling the geographical distribution of L. chinense. Currently, the suitable climatic habitat of L. chinense is mainly located in Southeastern China. Forecasted patterns of predicted suitable climatic habitat show a significant change by the 2050s and 2070s, suggesting that the suitable climatic habitat of L. chinense would shift north with future climate change, based on four Representative Concentrations Pathways for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The southern extent of the current distribution would become unsuitable for L. chinense, pointing to a threat of extinction and highlighting the urgent need for conservation within the next half century. The potentially suitable climatic habitat of L. chinense was predicted to move further north, but those habitat gains may be inaccessible because of dispersal limitations. Our unique findings offer a climatic suitability map for L. chinense in China, which can help to identify locations where L. chinense may already exist, but has not yet been detected; to recognize locations where L. chinense is likely to spread in the future given forecasted climate change; and to select priority areas for its introduction, cultivation, and conservation. View Full-Text
Keywords: species distribution model; maximum entropy modeling; Liriodendron chinense; climate change; suitable climatic habitat species distribution model; maximum entropy modeling; Liriodendron chinense; climate change; suitable climatic habitat
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary material

SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Xu, X.; Zhang, H.; Xie, T.; Xu, Y.; Zhao, L.; Tian, W. Effects of Climate Change on the Potentially Suitable Climatic Geographical Range of Liriodendron chinense. Forests 2017, 8, 399.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Forests EISSN 1999-4907 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top