Energies 2011, 4(10), 1508-1541; doi:10.3390/en4101508
Article

How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin

1 Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, Munich 80333, Germany 2 VISTA GmbH, Remote Sensing in Geosciences, Gabelsbergerstrasse 51, Munich 80333, Germany 3 Commission for Geodesy and Glaciology, Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities, Alfons-Goppel-Str. 11, Munich 80539, Germany
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 June 2011; in revised form: 6 September 2011 / Accepted: 22 September 2011 / Published: 30 September 2011
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Hydroelectric Power Generation)
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Abstract: Climate change has a large impact on water resources and thus on hydropower. Hydroelectric power generation is closely linked to the regional hydrological situation of a watershed and reacts sensitively to changes in water quantity and seasonality. The development of hydroelectric power generation in the Upper Danube basin was modelled for two future decades, namely 2021–2030 and 2051–2060, using a special hydropower module coupled with the physically-based hydrological model PROMET. To cover a possible range of uncertainties, 16 climate scenarios were taken as meteorological drivers which were defined from different ensemble outputs of a stochastic climate generator, based on the IPCC-SRES-A1B emission scenario and four regional climate trends. Depending on the trends, the results show a slight to severe decline in hydroelectric power generation. Whilst the mean summer values indicate a decrease, the mean winter values display an increase. To show past and future regional differences within the Upper Danube basin, three hydropower plants at individual locations were selected. Inter-annual differences originate predominately from unequal contributions of the runoff compartments rain, snow- and ice-melt.
Keywords: climate change; PROMET; hydroelectric power generation; runoff components; GLOWA-Danube; Upper Danube basin

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MDPI and ACS Style

Koch, F.; Prasch, M.; Bach, H.; Mauser, W.; Appel, F.; Weber, M. How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin. Energies 2011, 4, 1508-1541.

AMA Style

Koch F, Prasch M, Bach H, Mauser W, Appel F, Weber M. How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin. Energies. 2011; 4(10):1508-1541.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Koch, Franziska; Prasch, Monika; Bach, Heike; Mauser, Wolfram; Appel, Florian; Weber, Markus. 2011. "How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin." Energies 4, no. 10: 1508-1541.

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