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Energies 2018, 11(1), 20; doi:10.3390/en11010020

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

1
Department of Business Technology and Operations, Research Group MOBI, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, BE-1050 Brussels, Belgium
2
Research Centre for Economics and Corporate Sustainability (ECON-CEDON), Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Warmoesberg 26, BE-1000 Brussels, Belgium
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 31 October 2017 / Revised: 15 December 2017 / Accepted: 19 December 2017 / Published: 22 December 2017
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Abstract

This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society’s mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a ‘business as usual’ case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required. View Full-Text
Keywords: energy efficiency; electric and hybrid vehicles; CO2 emissions; environmental effects energy efficiency; electric and hybrid vehicles; CO2 emissions; environmental effects
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Höltl, A.; Macharis, C.; De Brucker, K. Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach. Energies 2018, 11, 20.

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