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Energies 2017, 10(2), 181; doi:10.3390/en10020181

Interpolating and Estimating Horizontal Diffuse Solar Irradiation to Provide UK-Wide Coverage: Selection of the Best Performing Models

Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, School of Mechanical, Electrical and Manufacturing Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, UK
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Academic Editor: Senthilarasu Sundaram
Received: 8 November 2016 / Revised: 16 January 2017 / Accepted: 21 January 2017 / Published: 5 February 2017
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Abstract

Plane-of-array (PoA) irradiation data is a requirement to simulate the energetic performance of photovoltaic devices (PVs). Normally, solar data is only available as global horizontal irradiation, for a limited number of locations, and typically in hourly time resolution. One approach to handling this restricted data is to enhance it initially by interpolation to the location of interest; next, it must be translated to PoA data by separately considering the diffuse and the beam components. There are many methods of interpolation. This research selects ordinary kriging as the best performing technique by studying mathematical properties, experimentation and leave-one-out-cross validation. Likewise, a number of different translation models has been developed, most of them parameterised for specific measurement setups and locations. The work presented identifies the optimum approach for the UK on a national scale. The global horizontal irradiation will be split into its constituent parts. Divers separation models were tried. The results of each separation algorithm were checked against measured data distributed across the UK. It became apparent that while there is little difference between procedures (14 Wh/m2 mean bias error (MBE), 12 Wh/m2 root mean square error (RMSE)), the Ridley, Boland, Lauret equation (a universal split algorithm) consistently performed well. The combined interpolation/separation RMSE is 86 Wh/m2). View Full-Text
Keywords: photovoltaic; spatial interpolation; ordinary kriging; solar radiation separation; national model validation; UK photovoltaic; spatial interpolation; ordinary kriging; solar radiation separation; national model validation; UK
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Palmer, D.; Cole, I.; Betts, T.; Gottschalg, R. Interpolating and Estimating Horizontal Diffuse Solar Irradiation to Provide UK-Wide Coverage: Selection of the Best Performing Models. Energies 2017, 10, 181.

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