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Energies 2017, 10(11), 1824; doi:10.3390/en10111824

Estimation of Transformers Health Index Based on the Markov Chain

1
Centre for Electromagnetic and Lightning Protection Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
2
Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Hang Tuah Jaya, 76100 Durian Tunggal, Melaka, Malaysia
3
Institute of Advanced Technology (ITMA), Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
4
Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Hang Tuah Jaya, 76100 Durian Tunggal, Melaka, Malaysia
5
TNB Research Sdn. Bhd., No. 1, Lorong Ayer Itam, Kawasan Institut Penyelidikan, 43000 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 28 September 2017 / Revised: 23 October 2017 / Accepted: 24 October 2017 / Published: 10 November 2017
(This article belongs to the Section Electrical Power and Energy System)
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Abstract

This paper presents a study on the application of the Markov Model (MM) to determine the transformer population states based on Health Index (HI). In total, 3195 oil samples from 373 transformers ranging in age from 1 to 25 years were analyzed. First, the HI of transformers was computed based on yearly individual oil condition monitoring data that consisted of oil quality, dissolved gases, and furanic compounds. Next, the average HI for each age was computed and the transition probabilities were obtained based on a nonlinear optimization technique. Finally, the future deterioration performance curve of the transformers was determined based on the MM chain algorithm. It was found that the MM can be used to predict the future transformers condition states. The chi-squared goodness-of-fit analysis revealed that the predicted HI for the transformer population obtained based on MM agrees with the average computed HI along the years, and the average error is 3.59%. View Full-Text
Keywords: transformers; Health Index (HI); Markov Model (MM); nonlinear optimization; transition probabilities; deterioration performance curve; chi-squared goodness-of-fit; asset management transformers; Health Index (HI); Markov Model (MM); nonlinear optimization; transition probabilities; deterioration performance curve; chi-squared goodness-of-fit; asset management
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Yahaya, M.S.; Azis, N.; Ab Kadir, M.Z.A.; Jasni, J.; Hairi, M.H.; Talib, M.A. Estimation of Transformers Health Index Based on the Markov Chain. Energies 2017, 10, 1824.

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