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From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term
Biological Resource Discipline, United States Geological Survey, 2150 Centre Ave. Building C. Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
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Received: 23 March 2010; in revised form: 4 May 2010 / Accepted: 6 May 2010 / Published: 12 May 2010
Abstract: We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2.
Keywords: climate change; invasive species; maximum entropy modeling; range shifts
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MDPI and ACS Style
Holcombe, T.R.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Jarnevich, C.S. From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term. Diversity 2010, 2, 738-767.
Holcombe TR, Stohlgren TJ, Jarnevich CS. From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term. Diversity. 2010; 2(5):738-767.
Holcombe, Tracy R.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S. 2010. "From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term." Diversity 2, no. 5: 738-767.