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Diversity 2010, 2(5), 738-767; doi:10.3390/d2050738
Article

From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term

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Received: 23 March 2010; in revised form: 4 May 2010 / Accepted: 6 May 2010 / Published: 12 May 2010
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Diversity Theories and Perspectives)
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Abstract: We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2.
Keywords: climate change; invasive species; maximum entropy modeling; range shifts climate change; invasive species; maximum entropy modeling; range shifts
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Holcombe, T.R.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Jarnevich, C.S. From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term. Diversity 2010, 2, 738-767.

AMA Style

Holcombe TR, Stohlgren TJ, Jarnevich CS. From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term. Diversity. 2010; 2(5):738-767.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Holcombe, Tracy R.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S. 2010. "From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term." Diversity 2, no. 5: 738-767.


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