Journal Description
Journal of Risk and Financial Management
Journal of Risk and Financial Management
is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal on risk and financial management, published monthly online by MDPI.
- Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
- High Visibility: indexed within Scopus, EconBiz, EconLit, RePEc, and other databases.
- Journal Rank: CiteScore - Q1 (Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous))
- Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision is provided to authors approximately 20.5 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 4.9 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the second half of 2023).
- Recognition of Reviewers: reviewers who provide timely, thorough peer-review reports receive vouchers entitling them to a discount on the APC of their next publication in any MDPI journal, in appreciation of the work done.
Latest Articles
Resource Price Interconnections and the Impact of Geopolitical Shocks Using Granger Causality: A Case Study of Ukraine–Russia Unrest
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 240; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060240 (registering DOI) - 9 Jun 2024
Abstract
Political events significantly impact economic indices, including agricultural commodities. While Granger causality is a well-established method for analyzing interdependencies between time series data, its traditional application can be challenging to interpret across multiple periods. This research enhances the Granger causality method to quantify
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Political events significantly impact economic indices, including agricultural commodities. While Granger causality is a well-established method for analyzing interdependencies between time series data, its traditional application can be challenging to interpret across multiple periods. This research enhances the Granger causality method to quantify changes in the interlinkages among variables over time, offering a more intuitive framework for analyzing how political events affect economic indices. The proposed method involves conducting Granger causality tests across different periods, forming vectors from the results to capture transitions from Granger-causing to non-Granger-causing variables. These vector amplitudes provide quantitative measures of changes with explanatory power over time. The dataset includes eight variables over a decade, focusing on the following major geopolitical events: the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with an intermediate “no-shocks” period as the reference. The results show significant changes in the interlinkages among the variables during crisis periods compared to stable periods. This enhanced method provides valuable insights, informing trading strategies and risk management during periods of geopolitical instability. This innovative approach offers a novel tool for market participants to better understand and respond to economic shocks caused by political events.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Markets Reaction to Russo-Ukrainian War)
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Exploring the Resilience of Islamic Stock in Indonesia and Asian Markets
by
Nofrianto Nofrianto, Deni Pandu Nugraha, Amanj Mohamed Ahmed, Zaenal Muttaqin, Maria Fekete-Farkas and István Hágen
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 239; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060239 - 7 Jun 2024
Abstract
This study aims to investigate the relationship between returns and risk of Islamic stock under stable economic conditions, crises, and pandemics within the scope of Indonesian and Asian Islamic capital markets. How do economic conditions affect the risks and returns of investors in
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This study aims to investigate the relationship between returns and risk of Islamic stock under stable economic conditions, crises, and pandemics within the scope of Indonesian and Asian Islamic capital markets. How do economic conditions affect the risks and returns of investors in the Indonesian and Asian Islamic capital markets? Verification of the veracity of the Islamic capital market serves as a more resilient option for alternative investments. This study uses Granger causality to determine exogenous and endogenous variables when building the model. The model that is formed is then analyzed using regression with dummy variables of stable economic conditions, crises, and pandemics. The first research findings on differences in crisis, stable and pandemic times in the Asian stock market show that there is no significant difference in effect between stable times and during a crisis, but there are differences in the effect during stable and pandemic times. The second research finding states that the return on Asian market Shariah stocks has no influence on increasing or reducing the value of risk or value at risk. The third finding explains that Islamic stocks in Indonesia have a greater risk value during pandemics and crises than in stable times, but the effect of pandemic and crisis conditions is not as great as Islamic stocks in Asia as a whole. In order to stabilize markets and reduce risks, regulatory bodies and governments frequently employ a variety of actions during times of crisis. When applied to trading volume, risk, and return patterns, these findings can help determine the appropriate policy.
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(This article belongs to the Section Financial Markets)
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CEO Characteristics and Risk-Taking under Economic Policy Uncertainty
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Ivan Stetsyuk, Ayca Altintig, Kerim Peren Arin and Moo Sung Kim
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 238; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060238 - 7 Jun 2024
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of such CEO characteristics as gender, age, and education on the CEOs’ risk-taking behavior during periods of economic policy uncertainty. The paper utilizes Execucomp, BoardEx, and Compustat data from 2005 to 2017 in order to give a novel
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This paper investigates the effects of such CEO characteristics as gender, age, and education on the CEOs’ risk-taking behavior during periods of economic policy uncertainty. The paper utilizes Execucomp, BoardEx, and Compustat data from 2005 to 2017 in order to give a novel perspective on how CEO characteristics may provide differing risk-taking positions when faced with varying levels of uncertainty. The results offer robust evidence that older CEOs generally take less risk—regardless of the level of economic policy uncertainty. However, more educated CEOs take less risk only during economically uncertain times. The results also indicate that while female CEOs tend to be younger and have lower levels of education, gender does not provide a significant difference in risk-taking behavior during periods of economic policy uncertainty. Furthermore, we do not find any significant effect of insider status or corporate governance variables on CEO risk-taking under economic policy uncertainty once gender, age, and education are controlled for.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Policy Uncertainty)
Open AccessArticle
Perception of Corporate Social Responsibility, Organizational Commitment and Employee Innovation Behavior: A Survey from Chinese AI Enterprises
by
Hao He and Chonlavit Sutunyarak
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 237; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060237 - 6 Jun 2024
Abstract
This study delves into the relationships between the perception of corporate social responsibility (PCSR), organizational commitment and employee innovation behavior, as well as the multiple mediating roles of affective, normative and continuance commitment in the relationship between the perception of CSR and innovation
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This study delves into the relationships between the perception of corporate social responsibility (PCSR), organizational commitment and employee innovation behavior, as well as the multiple mediating roles of affective, normative and continuance commitment in the relationship between the perception of CSR and innovation behavior. This research involved 419 employees from 15 artificial intelligence (AI) enterprises in Shenzhen, China. This study’s hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling. The findings indicate that PCSR significantly impacts innovation behavior, and affective, continuance and normative commitments also positively influence innovation behavior. Moreover, these three commitments play a partial mediating role in the relationship between PCSR and innovation behavior. This study enriches and expands the understanding of the multiple mediating mechanisms between PCSR and employee innovation behavior, providing a theoretical basis and guidance for management to comprehensively understand the role of employees’ PCSR in enhancing organizational commitment and fostering innovation behavior.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fintech and Green Finance)
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Does Islamic Sustainable Finance Support Sustainable Development Goals to Avert Financial Risk in the Management of Islamic Finance Products? A Critical Literature Review
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Lukman Raimi, Ibrahim Adeniyi Abdur-Rauf and Saheed Afolabi Ashafa
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 236; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060236 - 6 Jun 2024
Abstract
Policymakers, governments, and Islamic financial institutions are increasingly focusing on sustainable development, leading to an in-depth examination of current sustainable finance practices, projects, and product portfolios. This study examines the role of Islamic sustainable finance (ISF) in promoting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to
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Policymakers, governments, and Islamic financial institutions are increasingly focusing on sustainable development, leading to an in-depth examination of current sustainable finance practices, projects, and product portfolios. This study examines the role of Islamic sustainable finance (ISF) in promoting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to avert financial risk in the management of Islamic Finance Products (ISFP). Through qualitative analysis, the study conducts a critical literature review (CLR) that incorporates conceptual, theoretical, and empirical perspectives on ISF and SDGs and addresses two specific research questions. Our study examines over 48 journals from 2010 to 2024 and provides insights into how ISF advances the SDGs across all environmental, social, and economic dimensions. It also highlights that ISF promotes green entrepreneurship by investing in sustainable projects, supporting SMEs, and offering alternative financing. ISF also promotes financial stability, justice, and growth and is consistent with the principles of Maqasid al-Shari’ah. Key ISF mechanisms that promote the SDGs include Islamic Green Sukuk, Socially Responsible Investment Funds, Islamic Microfinance, and Islamic Impact Investing. Integrating Islamic ethical principles into financial activities is crucial for inclusive and sustainable economic development. These qualitative insights are critical for policymakers, Islamic financial institutions, Halal entrepreneurs, environmentalists, and investors to understand the potential of Islamic social finance (ISF) to support sustainable practices, projects, and portfolios. Furthermore, the ISFs alignment with Maqasid al-Shari’ah highlights its importance in promoting sustainable development while mitigating financial risk in ISFPs management. The study offers robust contributions to the existing literature to provide comprehensive insights into how ISF can be effectively used to promote SDGs.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Finance, Risk and Sustainable Development)
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Open AccessArticle
Financial Fragility and Public Social Spending: Unraveling the Endogenous Nexus
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Dionysios Kyriakopoulos, John Yfantopoulos and Theodoros Stamatopoulos
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 235; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060235 - 5 Jun 2024
Abstract
This article provides both stylized facts and estimations of the endogenous nexus of the financial fragility hypothesis (FFH) with public social spending (PSS) for a paradigmatic Eurozone member country. The sample period 1995–2022 includes three major economic crises, the global financial crisis 2007–2009,
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This article provides both stylized facts and estimations of the endogenous nexus of the financial fragility hypothesis (FFH) with public social spending (PSS) for a paradigmatic Eurozone member country. The sample period 1995–2022 includes three major economic crises, the global financial crisis 2007–2009, the European debt crisis 2010–2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic one in 2020–2022. Within the context of the financialization literature, this paper is founded, for the first time, as far as we know, on the “financial fragility hypothesis”, combining the effects of both Minsky’s “financial instability”, as it has been extended for open economies, and the “Eurozone fragility one”. Similar to the relevant literature, the findings show that the PSS is associated, in a long-term steady state (cointegration), with the financial fragility process, starting, firstly, from the hedge-financing structure with high profitability of firms, when PSS decreases; secondly, to hyper-speculative financing with risky options, supported by bank credit and openness, indebtedness or discretionary fiscal policy, when PSS rises; thirdly, to the hyper-speculative or even Ponzi financing structures with over-indebtedness (leverage) from the global capital market, inflated asset prices and internationalized fragility, when PSS also rises, and so on. Our conclusion validates Minsky’s famous saying, “stability breeds instability”, also in the architecturally incomplete Eurozone. Policy implications are straightforward and discussed.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Featured Papers in Mathematics and Finance)
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Can the Presence of Big 4 Auditors in IPO Prospectus Reduce Failure Risk?
by
Manal Alidarous
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 234; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060234 - 5 Jun 2024
Abstract
This paper addresses a void in the research on auditing and initial public offering (IPO) failure by investigating the impact of the Big 4 auditing firms on the likelihood of an IPO failure. This research is the first comprehensive analysis of more than
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This paper addresses a void in the research on auditing and initial public offering (IPO) failure by investigating the impact of the Big 4 auditing firms on the likelihood of an IPO failure. This research is the first comprehensive analysis of more than 33,000 global IPOs that either failed or were successful between 1995 and 2019 across a wide range of nations with vastly different regulatory, cultural, and economic settings. A cross-sectional probit regression model is utilized to investigate the influence of hiring the Big 4 auditing firms on IPO failure, building upon prior studies on IPO failure. We found strong evidence that IPO failure rates were diminished by up to 67% when one of the Big 4 auditing firms was involved in auditing the IPO prospectus. For IPO founders, hiring Big 4 auditors before an IPO is a quality signaling strategy that minimizes the risk of a failed IPO by reducing information asymmetry among IPO participants. Our findings provide useful policy implications. Hiring one of the Big 4 auditing firms before an IPO is a reassuring signaling strategy for founders, since it decreases information asymmetry among IPO investors and so lowers the risk of the IPO failing. Primary market investors now have access to credible evidence indicating that backing IPOs from companies that use the Big 4 auditing firms increases the likelihood of such IPOs being listed on stock exchanges and yields positive returns. This is the first time, as far as the academicians are aware, that conclusive evidence has been found of a strong inverse association between the presence of Big 4 audits and failure risk for IPO firms. Our research could be helpful to primary market regulators since it shows how crucial it is to encourage Big 4 audits in IPO companies. The quality work of the Big 4 auditors does lower the risk of failure in the IPO market, which might help owners of small private equities to list their firms on the IPO market, boosting economic growth.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Judgment and Decision-Making Research in Auditing)
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The Principle of Proportionality: Unraveling the Practical Application of Proportionality in the EU Regulations and the Solvency II Directive for Insurance Undertakings
by
Aaron Baldacchino, Simon Grima and Kiran Sood
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 233; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060233 - 4 Jun 2024
Abstract
Proportionality, pivotal to EU regulations and Solvency II, tailors rules to insurers’ size and complexity. Inconsistent application by supervisory authorities (NSAs) necessitates clarity to prevent undue costs. This study examines the issue via a review of the literature and industry discussions, emphasizing Solvency
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Proportionality, pivotal to EU regulations and Solvency II, tailors rules to insurers’ size and complexity. Inconsistent application by supervisory authorities (NSAs) necessitates clarity to prevent undue costs. This study examines the issue via a review of the literature and industry discussions, emphasizing Solvency II’s introduction of proportionality and the varied interpretations it evokes. Transparent communication is crucial, and regulatory evolution must align with market dynamics, with the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) fostering convergence. Assessing proportionality mandates a comprehensive evaluation of an insurer’s nature, scale, and complexity. Regulatory distinctions between first-party and third-party risks could enhance market efficiency. Ultimately, a holistic, market-oriented approach is essential for proportionate regulation in the insurance sector, requiring concerted efforts to elucidate frameworks, foster transparency, and align regulatory evolution with market dynamics.
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(This article belongs to the Section Financial Markets)
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Public Law Liability of the Financial Market Supervisor
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Michal Janovec and János Kálmán
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 232; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060232 - 1 Jun 2024
Abstract
This article deals with the liability of the supervisory authority of the financial market. It could be questioned whether the supervisory authority, as the public authority, is liable for the supervisory performance. If the answer is yes, then the question is what kind
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This article deals with the liability of the supervisory authority of the financial market. It could be questioned whether the supervisory authority, as the public authority, is liable for the supervisory performance. If the answer is yes, then the question is what kind of liability could be found and if any special conditions (prerequisites) are needed. In general, there could be two lines of public liability found. One is systemic liability for the safe financial market—e.g., financial market stability. The other perspective is individual liability for damages caused by unlawful administrative procedure or maladministration, where unlimited strict liability is granted. This kind of liability might be widely questioned, especially when the central bank is the supervisory authority, like in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and other EU member states. This article aims to evaluate the liability of the supervisory authority in the Czech Republic and Hungary concerning the European level of such liability.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Markets and Institutions and Financial Crises)
Open AccessArticle
Optimizing Concession Agreement Terms and Conditions: Stakeholder Interest Alignment in the Petrochemical Sector
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Tatyana Ponomarenko, Ilya Gorbatyuk, Sergey Galevskiy and Evgenii Marin
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 231; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060231 - 1 Jun 2024
Abstract
This article is devoted to the examination of models and the selection of optimal parameters for concession agreements pertaining to construction and operation projects within the pipeline infrastructure of the petrochemical sector. Pipelines are underscored as capital-intensive assets crucial for the organization of
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This article is devoted to the examination of models and the selection of optimal parameters for concession agreements pertaining to construction and operation projects within the pipeline infrastructure of the petrochemical sector. Pipelines are underscored as capital-intensive assets crucial for the organization of complex petrochemical production processes. These processes play a vital role in generating added value, tax revenue, employment opportunities, and fostering territorial development while upholding environmental quality standards. This study aims to ascertain the economic parameters of concession agreements, with a focus on achieving a balance of economic interests between the government and businesses. Through a comparative analysis of fundamental economic and mathematical models of concession agreements, the authors model economic parameters to determine the government’s share in investments and concession fees concerning pipeline projects. Subsequently, an oil product pipeline project is discussed as a case study. The results gleaned from this analysis can be harnessed to optimize the parameters of concession agreements and enhance the economic efficiency of project implementation. Economically viable parameters not only facilitate the execution of concession agreements but also foster the generation of added value, social benefits, and environmental oversight, thus aligning with the principles of sustainable development.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effective Governance and Financing Models for Public–Private Partnerships)
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Financial Development, Financial Openness, and Policy Effectiveness
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Niraj P. Koirala, Hassan Anjum Butt, Jeffrey Zimmerman and Ahmed Kamara
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 230; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060230 - 29 May 2024
Abstract
This study explores how financial development and openness influence the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. An analysis of data from about 100 countries between 1980 and 2018 reveals that both financial openness and development weaken the impact of monetary and fiscal policies.
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This study explores how financial development and openness influence the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. An analysis of data from about 100 countries between 1980 and 2018 reveals that both financial openness and development weaken the impact of monetary and fiscal policies. Our results further show that financial development in a country diminishes policy effectiveness depending on the country’s level of financial development; specifically, the more developed a country, the less effective the policies would be. Additionally, through a detailed examination employing a dynamic panel GMM approach, the study investigates the global repercussions of economic downturns in the US and how financial maturity shapes policy effectiveness during these times. We also discuss some policy implications that show that the positive impacts of monetary policy on output growth are lessened during crisis periods, and policymakers should act accordingly.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Econometrics and Time Series Analysis (Volume II))
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An Empirical Examination of Bitcoin’s Halving Effects: Assessing Cryptocurrency Sustainability within the Landscape of Financial Technologies
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Juraj Fabus, Iveta Kremenova, Natalia Stalmasekova and Terezia Kvasnicova-Galovicova
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 229; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060229 - 29 May 2024
Abstract
This article explores the significance of Bitcoin halving events within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their impact on market dynamics. While the existing literature addresses the periods before and after Bitcoin halving, as well as financial bubbles, there is an absence of forecasting regarding
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This article explores the significance of Bitcoin halving events within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their impact on market dynamics. While the existing literature addresses the periods before and after Bitcoin halving, as well as financial bubbles, there is an absence of forecasting regarding Bitcoin price in the time after halving. To address this gap and provide predictions of Bitcoin price development, we conducted a rigorous analysis of past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, focusing on Bitcoin price behaviour before and after each occurrence. What interests us is not only the change in the price level of Bitcoins (top and bottom), but also when this turn occurs. Through synthesizing data and trends from previous events, this article aims to uncover patterns and insights that illuminate the impact of Bitcoin halving on market dynamics and sustainability, movement of the price level, the peaks reached, and price troughs. Our approach involved employing methods such as RSI, MACD, and regression analysis. We looked for the relationship between the price of Bitcoin (top and bottom) and the number of days after the halving. We have uncovered a mathematical model, according to which the next peak will be reached 19 months (in November 2025) and the trough 31 months after Bitcoin halving 2024 (in November 2026). Looking towards the future, this study estimates predictions and expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving. These discoveries significantly enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s trajectory and its implications for the finance cryptocurrency market. By offering novel insights into cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study contributes to advancing knowledge in the field and provides valuable information for cryptocurrency markets, investors, and stakeholders.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Stability of Financial Markets and Sustainability Post-COVID-19)
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European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIFs) and Regional Development across the European Union (EU)
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Nikolitsa Spilioti and Athanasios Anastasiou
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 228; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060228 - 29 May 2024
Abstract
This scoping review synthesizes the evidence from eleven key studies to assess the impact of European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIFs) on regional development across the European Union (EU), focusing on fund efficiency, regional disparities and convergence, governance quality, economic freedom, and fund
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This scoping review synthesizes the evidence from eleven key studies to assess the impact of European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIFs) on regional development across the European Union (EU), focusing on fund efficiency, regional disparities and convergence, governance quality, economic freedom, and fund management. A systematic search was conducted across multiple databases to identify the relevant literature published up to 2023. Eleven studies were selected based on the date published and their focus on ESIFs’ role in regional development, employing a range of methodological approaches including Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), spatial econometrics, and multivariate analyses. The thematic analysis identified four main categories: Methodological Approaches in Evaluating Fund Efficiency, Regional Disparities and Convergence, The Interconnection between Governance Quality, Economic Freedom, and the Efficiency of Structural Fund Management, and The Absorption Capacity and Fund Management. The review highlights the importance of sophisticated analytical tools in evaluating fund efficiency, with DEA and spatial econometrics providing critical insights into fund management efficiency. Studies underscored the nuanced efficacy of ESIFs in reducing regional disparities, albeit pointing to the need for more targeted fund allocation. Governance quality and economic freedom emerged as pivotal factors enhancing fund management efficiency, suggesting the potential of governance reforms in optimizing ESIF allocation and utilization. Challenges related to fund absorption and management were illuminated, advocating for enhanced institutional management capabilities and the development of innovative performance indicators. The findings of this scoping review contribute to a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding ESIFs’ impact on regional development within the EU. They underscore the critical importance of governance quality, economic freedom, methodological rigor, and strategic fund allocation in enhancing the effectiveness of ESIFs. The review calls for tailored policy interventions and the integration of national and European funding strategies to maximize the impact of these programs on regional development and SME support. Future research should continue to refine these methodological approaches and explore the causal effects of funding, to enhance our understanding of ESIFs’ efficiency in promoting regional development and convergence within the European Union.
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(This article belongs to the Section Economics and Finance)
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Do CEOs Identified as Value Investors Outperform Those Who Are Not?
by
George Athanassakos
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 227; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060227 - 29 May 2024
Abstract
The aim of this study is to examine whether good asset allocation by a CEO leads to superior stock returns and, if so, how one might be able to identify CEOs that are good asset allocators. Employing US data from May 2001 to
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The aim of this study is to examine whether good asset allocation by a CEO leads to superior stock returns and, if so, how one might be able to identify CEOs that are good asset allocators. Employing US data from May 2001 to April 2019, we find that CEOs that invest the company’s cash flows according to a value-investing style seem to outperform companies that do not. We find that high goodwill to assets and high operating margin (good asset allocator) companies outperform companies with high or low goodwill to assets and low operating margin (poor asset allocator) companies. The findings are corroborated with out-of-sample (May 2019–April 2023) robustness tests. When buying other businesses, value investor CEOs ensure that their consolidated operating margins remain high, as opposed to other firms managed by poor asset allocator CEOs who buy businesses that bring down operating margins, either because they overpay or due to an inability to materialize expected synergies. Using both summary statistics and regression analysis, the findings of this study help us identify companies that allocate assets like value investors and enable us to anticipate future stock performance. For example, if a company, on average, has a goodwill/assets ratio of 41.03%, and an operating margin of 21.38%, it is likely this firm would be at the top quartile in terms of stock return performance over at least the next three years. At the same time, if a firm has a low average goodwill/assets ratio (i.e., 1.95%), its operating margins, on average, should be 24.46%, if it wants to achieve a similar performance as that of firms with high goodwill/assets. Moreover, the future stock return predictability of high (low) goodwill/assets and high (low) operating margin firms, found in this study, can help an investor develop trading strategies that can lead to superior stock price performance by effectively taking long positions in (shorting) firms that are (not) managed by value investor CEOs. Finally, the paper’s findings can also help investors in another way. For example, investors tend to be skeptical about companies with high goodwill/assets. The rule of thumb is to beware of companies carrying goodwill on their balance sheets that is more than 25% of assets. Based on our findings, this should not be a problem as long as the company’s operating margin has remained high and is rising.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Featured Papers in Corporate Finance and Governance)
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Goodwill Valuation Enhancement through Capitalization Method and Statistical Impact Analysis
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Shariq Mohammed, Amir Ahmad Dar, Mohammad Shahfaraz Khan, Imran Azad, Gopu Jayaraman and Olayan Albalawi
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 226; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060226 - 28 May 2024
Abstract
The valuation of Goodwill (GW) has remained one of the several critical issues in financial analysis. This aspect is particularly important for mergers and acquisitions due to the significance of intangible assets. This study delves into the capitalization method of super profit (CMSP),
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The valuation of Goodwill (GW) has remained one of the several critical issues in financial analysis. This aspect is particularly important for mergers and acquisitions due to the significance of intangible assets. This study delves into the capitalization method of super profit (CMSP), a prominent technique for GW valuation, enhanced by the integration of statistical tools. Assessing a company’s excess profits over its average return on tangible assets is part of the CMSP. Finding the variables that have a significant impact on GW valuation, such as average profit, capital employed, and rate of return, is the main goal of this research. These issues are thoroughly investigated through statistical analysis to give stakeholders useful information for well-informed decision-making. Additionally, the study seeks to identify the external elements influencing this process as well as the internal aspects influencing GW valuation. Regression analysis, correlation matrices, response analysis and ANOVA are used to improve GW assessment and comprehension of the complex relationships between different factors.
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(This article belongs to the Section Mathematics and Finance)
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Diversification Is Not a Free Lunch
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Dirk G. Baur
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 225; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060225 - 27 May 2024
Abstract
This study analyzed the statement “diversification is a free lunch”. We empirically showed that diversification is only a free lunch under uncertainty or ignorance, confirming Warren Buffett’s “diversification is protection against ignorance”. Using historical returns of the S&P500 constituents illustrated that diversification not
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This study analyzed the statement “diversification is a free lunch”. We empirically showed that diversification is only a free lunch under uncertainty or ignorance, confirming Warren Buffett’s “diversification is protection against ignorance”. Using historical returns of the S&P500 constituents illustrated that diversification not only decreased the risk but also the returns if the expected returns could be estimated. The findings of this study highlight that diversification reduces risk but that the risk reduction is not for free.
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(This article belongs to the Section Economics and Finance)
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Revolutionizing Hedge Fund Risk Management: The Power of Deep Learning and LSTM in Hedging Illiquid Assets
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Yige Wang, Leyao Tong and Yueshu Zhao
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 224; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060224 - 26 May 2024
Abstract
In the dynamic sphere of financial markets, hedge funds have emerged as a critical force, navigating through volatility with advanced risk management techniques yet grappling with the challenges posed by illiquid assets. This study aims to transcend traditional option pricing models, which struggle
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In the dynamic sphere of financial markets, hedge funds have emerged as a critical force, navigating through volatility with advanced risk management techniques yet grappling with the challenges posed by illiquid assets. This study aims to transcend traditional option pricing models, which struggle under the complexities of hedge fund investments, by exploring the applicability of machine learning in financial risk management. Leveraging Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells, the research introduces a model-free, data-driven approach for discrete-time hedging problems. Through a comparative analysis of simulated data and the implementation of LSTM architectures, the paper elucidates the potential of these machine learning techniques to enhance the precision of risk assessments and decision-making processes in hedge fund investments. The findings reveal that DNNs and LSTMs offer significant advancements over conventional models, effectively capturing long-term dependencies and complex patterns within financial time series data. Consequently, the study underscores the transformative impact of machine learning on the methodologies employed in financial risk management, proposing a novel paradigm that promises to mitigate the intricacies of hedging illiquid assets. This research not only contributes to the academic discourse but also paves the way for the development of more adaptive and resilient investment strategies in the face of market uncertainties.
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(This article belongs to the Section Financial Technology and Innovation)
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Does Debt Structure Explain the Relationship between Agency Cost of Free Cash Flow and Dividend Payment? Evidence from Saudi Arabia
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Moez Dabboussi
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 223; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060223 - 26 May 2024
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of debt financing on dividend payments when they face the agency costs of free cash flow. It focuses on a sample of 120 firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange during the period of 2011–2021. The findings from
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This paper investigates the impact of debt financing on dividend payments when they face the agency costs of free cash flow. It focuses on a sample of 120 firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange during the period of 2011–2021. The findings from the Generalized Least Squares regression model revealed that the presence of agency costs of free cash flows may limit the funds available for dividend payments. Regarding the moderating effect of debt structure, the research highlights the significant role of long-term debt in making more prudent use of free cash flow. The use of long-term debt becomes more effective and can enhance shareholder wealth when a firm is facing agency costs of free cash flow. More specifically, bondholders primarily focus on affirmative covenants which require the firm to undertake specified actions such as maintaining assets and financial ratios, or paying taxes, but they do not restrict financing activities such as dividend payments. Since interest and debt repayments are fixed obligations, using free cash flow for dividend disbursement is considered a more profitable and beneficial approach for shareholders in the context of Saudi Arabia. This study contributes to our understanding of financial management under different debt structures and improves our scientific knowledge of the culture of Saudi firms regarding the dividend distribution policy.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Corporate Finance: Financial Management of the Firm)
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Effects of Ownership Structure on Intellectual Capital: Evidence from Publicly Listed Banks in Bangladesh
by
Syed Zabid Hossain and Md. Sohel Rana
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 222; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060222 - 24 May 2024
Abstract
This study explored the impacts of ownership structure (OS) on intellectual capital (IC) and its components. Data were gathered from 31 Dhaka Stock Exchange-listed banks for five years, from 2017 to 2021, consisting of 155 observations as balanced panel data. The study used
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This study explored the impacts of ownership structure (OS) on intellectual capital (IC) and its components. Data were gathered from 31 Dhaka Stock Exchange-listed banks for five years, from 2017 to 2021, consisting of 155 observations as balanced panel data. The study used the modified value-added intellectual coefficient (MVAIC) model to track the IC efficiency. The robust fixed effects model was employed for regression analysis to test the hypotheses. The research found that sponsor director ownership is negatively associated with the MVAIC, human capital efficiency (HCE), and structural capital efficiency (SCE) but positively with relational capital efficiency (RCE). High institutional and public ownership are positively linked with SCE but negatively with RCE. Foreign ownership is only positively associated with banks’ MVAIC and HCE. The regression results showed that high institutional ownership (IO) significantly enhanced the MVAIC and HCE. Foreign and public ownership positively influenced banks’ MVAIC, HCE, and capital employed efficiency (CEE) but negatively impacted RCE. The findings of this study will help banks’ policymakers with ownership mixes for the optimum utilization of banks’ resources. Management may assess IC’s efficiency level for proper supervision and use of knowledge resources to boost bank profitability. Also, the findings will help investors make prudent investment decisions. This is the first study to focus on OS and IC with diverse elements in Southeast Asia, especially Bangladesh, an emerging market.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Subjective Well-Being and Financial Decision Making)
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Open AccessArticle
Transmission of Inflation and Exchange Rate Effects: The Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Methodology
by
Heni Boubaker and Ben Saad Zorgati Mouna
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(6), 221; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17060221 - 24 May 2024
Abstract
The aim of this study is to delve into the intricate the mechanism through which alterations in currency exchange rates give rise to shifts in inflation rates, while taking into careful consideration the country’s economic cycle. In order to accomplish this objective, we
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The aim of this study is to delve into the intricate the mechanism through which alterations in currency exchange rates give rise to shifts in inflation rates, while taking into careful consideration the country’s economic cycle. In order to accomplish this objective, we used a dataset that spanned from 1 January 1999 to 1 July 2023, focusing our analytical lens on three specific geographic areas, namely the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada. In our pursuit of understanding this complex relationship, we employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model. Our research outcomes can be succinctly encapsulated as follows: in the initial stages, particularly during phases characterized by robust economic growth, the transmission of exchange rate effects onto inflation levels appeared to exhibit a partial impact across all geographic areas under examination. However, during periods marked by economic downturns, both the United Kingdom and Canada displayed a distinctly more comprehensive transmission of these effects. Moreover, the prevailing projections for the forthcoming time horizon, across all the countries encompassed by our study, strongly indicate the onset of an expansionary phase that is projected to extend over a span of 25 months. Lastly, concerning the implications of unexpected disturbances or shocks, it is noteworthy that the response of exchange rates to inflation induced shocks was neither immediate nor as pronounced as the corresponding reaction of inflation to sudden shifts in exchange rates.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Econometrics and Quantitative Economic Analysis)
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