Water

The initiation of debris flows in mountainous areas is dynamically influenced by multiple factors, including rainfall intensity, duration, and antecedent rainfall conditions. Traditional static threshold methods struggle to adapt to these dynamic environmental conditions. To address this issue, this paper proposes a dynamic threshold determination method for the critical rainfall triggering debris flows in mountainous regions. Firstly, high-risk areas are identified based on the frequency ratio model, and the effective rainfall is quantified using the Crozier model. Subsequently, a combination of dynamic variables, such as soil saturation and safety factor, is constructed, and the Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence is introduced for sensitivity screening to select the most relevant variables. These optimized variables are then fed into an LSTM-TCN (Long Short-Term Memory-Temporal Convolutional Network) framework to extract temporal features and predict the probability of debris flow occurrence time. Finally, real-time threshold determination is achieved by integrating the absolute rainfall energy with a dynamic threshold model. Test results demonstrate that this method can effectively quantify the dynamic nature of rainfall across different regions, screen key variables, and achieve threshold determination with high coverage (average of 0.978) and precise interval width (average of 0.023). This approach provides a more accurate and adaptive means of predicting and managing debris flow risks in mountainous areas, enhancing our ability to respond to these natural hazards in a timely and effective manner.

Under dynamic loading (e.g., earthquakes, extreme rainfall), multi-stage slope slumps occur as downstream slopes lose anti-sliding stability, triggering intensive lateral sediment supply that governs mountainous channel evolution. This study uses a coupled CFD-DEM model to simulate how water–sediment conditions regulate sediment transport and riverbed deformation. Results show that during the first sediment supply event, particle motion is initially slower under wet than dry conditions but accelerates due to buoyancy, with the peak average particle velocity along the gully axis decreasing by 11.5% and exhibiting negligible flow rate dependence. In the channel, higher flow rates raise particle velocity and downstream sediment flux, while a prolonged supply interval elevates peak velocity and delays its occurrence. For subsequent events, peak gully axis and vertical velocities increase with sediment supply mass, with weak dependence on flow rate or interval. Post-peak particle motion accelerates with these three factors, enhancing sediment entrainment effects. Increasing flow rate from 1.7 to 2.2 L/s, supply mass from 0.75 to 1.50 kg, and interval from 4 to 6 s significantly strengthens substrate dynamic response, with the peak average velocity rising by 78.3%, 33.3%, 67.0% and maximum displacement by 80.7%, 51.2%, 67.6%, respectively. Channel particle velocity is more sensitive to flow rate but suppressed by greater sediment mass and shorter intervals. The deposited riverbed has three zones: first-supply-dominated, mixed, and subsequent-supply-dominated. Higher flow rates restrict depositional area expansion but increase thickness, whereas greater subsequent sediment expands its dominant zone while reducing thickness, with minimal influence from supply intervals. This study offers theoretical insights for preventing water–sediment disasters in mountainous areas.

This study examines the historical relationship between water management and epidemic diseases in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain) between the 16th and 19th centuries. It focuses on two major pathologies—yellow fever and cholera—which, despite differing transmission mechanisms (vector-borne and waterborne, respectively), both depended critically on aquatic and semi-endorheic ecosystems. By analysing archival records, parish death registers, and historical reports of floods and droughts, the paper demonstrates how inadequate hydraulic infrastructure and poor sanitation practices intensified epidemic outbreaks. At least five large-scale epidemic episodes (1804, 1834, 1854, 1865, and 1885) coincided with extreme hydrological events, indicating a clear correlation between water governance failures and mortality peaks. Conversely, periods of effective state intervention through regulation and infrastructure maintenance reveal a marked reduction in disease incidence. The results highlight that water governance was not only a technical challenge but also a socio-political determinant of public health. These historical insights remain relevant today, particularly as climate change exacerbates water-related risks worldwide. Understanding the long-term interactions between ecology, infrastructure, and disease contributes to current debates on environmental resilience and sustainable management of water resources as key components of collective health and social stability.