Hydrology

Drought is expected to intensify under climate change, posing significant risks to Mediterranean agroecosystems. This study provides long-term projections of drought and wetness conditions for three representative Mediterranean regions—Eastern Mancha (Spain), Sidi Bouzid Governorate (Tunisia), and the Beqaa Valley (Lebanon)—to support climate-resilient planning. Future monthly precipitation (2020–2050) was dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP4.5 scenario, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12) was subsequently applied to quantify drought severity at annual and monthly scales. By integrating dynamically downscaled WRF projections with pixel-based SPI analysis across three spatially distinct Mediterranean regions, the study provides a novel, spatially explicit and comparative framework for assessing future drought and wetness extremes in support of climate-resilient planning. The results reveal spatial variability and moderate temporal fluctuations across the three regions, reflected in differing timings and intensities of their driest and wettest hydrological years. Spain is projected to experience its driest hydrological year in 2046–2047, Tunisia in 2030–2031, and Lebanon in 2047–2048. The wettest years are projected to occur in 2045–2046 for Spain and Tunisia, and in 2028–2029 for Lebanon. Although extreme drought events are not widely anticipated, localised severe dry periods emerge in many parts of the study areas. while in Lebanon, these conditions also extend into the winter and spring. These findings underscore the need for spatially targeted adaptation rather than uniform regional measures. Identifying both driest and wettest projected years enhances preparedness, informs water-resource optimisation, and supports agricultural land-use planning, especially in areas with favourable future climatic conditions. Integrating drought projections into multi-hazard planning (i.e., drought and floods) frameworks can further strengthen territorial resilience in regions facing increasing climate-related extremes.

Groundwater, a vital resource for drinking water supply, must be managed sustainably to ensure its availability and quality. In France, the SISE-Eaux database on water intended for human consumption, archived by the Regional Health Agencies (ARS) since 1990, constitutes a rich source of information. This study focused on the groundwater of the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region, the largest administrative region in metropolitan France, covering 84,061 km² with 6 million inhabitants. It is based on a 22-year data extraction, resulting in a matrix of 121,649 observations and 51 physico-chemical and bacteriological parameters. Following logarithmic transformation of the data and fitting of variograms using the mean value of each parameter for each sampling point, the spatial distribution of numerous parameters across the region is presented. From this initial sparse matrix, a dense matrix of 23,319 samples (rows) and 15 key parameters (columns) was selected for a multivariate approach. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to condense the information and create summary maps capturing over 68% of the information contained in the dense matrix. The combined results of the multivariate analysis (dense matrix) and the distribution of individual parameters (sparse matrix) highlight the diversity of sources contributing to the spatial variability of groundwater, such as the role of lithology, the origin and pathways of fecal contamination, and the influence of redox processes. Neither the large size of the study area nor the high number of parameters proved to be an obstacle to the analysis. The understanding of ongoing processes and the factorial axis distribution maps, which enable the spatial representation of these mechanisms, can be used to facilitate groundwater monitoring and protection.

The determination of groundwater background levels is a prerequisite for assessing and analyzing groundwater characteristics. Shanghai is among the most economically developed regions in China and is located in the estuary of the Yangtze River, where frequent hydrogeochemical processes occur. Moreover, the frequency of anthropogenic activities in Shanghai is very high. Consequently, assessing groundwater background levels in Shanghai is inherently limited if only statistical methods are adopted or anthropogenic impacts are ignored. In this study, hydrochemical and statistical methods were coupled to identify groundwater anomalies and background levels. The results revealed distinct differences in hydrochemical characteristics between the two selected independent units (Chongming and Qingpu units), highlighting the necessity of reasonably delineating hydrogeological units for obtaining background values. Furthermore, for these two independent units, different optimal methods for identifying and eliminating anthropogenic groundwater anomalies were determined. The use of coupled methods was demonstrated to be substantially superior to the use of purely statistical approaches. Hydro-HCA was identified as the optimal identification method for the Chongming unit, whereas Hydro-Grubbs was determined as the most suitable method for the Qingpu unit. This could be attributed mainly to the coupled methods accounting for not only the dispersion of the data itself but also the intrinsic relationships and evolutionary processes of hydrochemical components. These findings could provide reliable information for subsequent groundwater background surveys and studies on groundwater pollution characteristics in Shanghai and to guide future endeavors aimed at protecting groundwater resources.