Earth, Volume 5, Issue 2 (June 2024) – 5 articles

In the global carbon cycle, atmospheric carbon emissions, both ‘natural’ and anthropogenic, are balanced by carbon uptake (i.e., sequestration) that mostly occurs via photosynthesis, plus a much smaller proportion via geological processes. Since the formation of the Earth about 4.54 billion years ago, the ratio between emitted and sequestered carbon has varied considerably, with atmospheric CO₂ levels ranging from 100,000 ppm to a mere 100 ppm. Over this time, a huge amount of carbon has been sequestered due to photosynthesis and essentially removed from the cycle, being buried as fossil deposits of coal, oil, and gas. Relatively low atmospheric CO₂ levels were the norm for the past 10 million years, and during the past million years, they averaged about 220 ppm. More recently, the Holocene epoch, starting ~11,700 years ago, has been a period of unusual climatic stability with relatively warm, moist conditions and low atmospheric CO₂ levels of between 260 and 280 ppm. During the Holocene, stable conditions facilitated a social revolution with the domestication of crops and livestock, leading to urbanisation and the development of complex technologies. As part of the latter process, immense quantities of sequestered fossil carbon have recently been used as energy sources, resulting in a particularly rapid increase in CO₂ emissions after 1950 CE to the current value of 424 ppm, with further rises to >800 ppm predicted by 2100. This is already perturbing the previously stable Holocene climate and threatening future food production and social stability. Today, the global carbon cycle has been shifted such that carbon sequestration is no longer keeping up with recent anthropogenic emissions. In order to address this imbalance, it is important to understand the roles of potential biological carbon sequestration systems and to devise strategies to facilitate net CO₂ uptake; for example, via changes in the patterns of land use, such as afforestation, preventing deforestation, and facilitating agriculture–agroforestry transitions. Full article

This research focuses on the urban expansion occurring in the Kamrup Metropolitan District—an area experiencing significant urbanization—with the aim of understanding its patterns and projecting future growth. The research covers the period from 2000 to 2022 and projects growth up to 2052, providing insights for sustainable urban planning. The study utilizes the maximum likelihood method for land use/land cover (LULC) delineation and the Shannon entropy technique for assessing urban sprawl. Additionally, it integrates the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for future projections. The results indicate a considerable shift from non-built-up to built-up areas, with the proportion of built-up areas expected to reach 36.2% by 2032 and 40.54% by 2052. These findings emphasize the importance of strategic urban management and sustainable planning. The study recommends adaptive urban planning strategies and highlights the value of integrating the CA Markov model and AHP for policymakers and urban planners. This can contribute to the discourse on sustainable urban development and informed decision-making. Full article

The interplay between climate and land use/cover significantly shapes streamflow characteristics within watersheds, with dominance varying based on geography and watershed attributes. This study quantifies the relative and combined impacts of land use/cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) on streamflow variability in the Baro River Basin (BRB) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+). The model was calibrated and validated with observed streamflow data from 1985 to 2014 and projected the future streamflow from 2041 to 2070 under two Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios, based on the ensemble of four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models. The LULCC was analyzed through Google Earth Engine (GEE) and predicted for the future using the Land Change Modeler (LCM), revealing reductions in forest and wetlands, and increases in agriculture, grassland, and shrubland. Simulations show that the decrease in streamflow is attributed to LULCC, whereas an increase in flow is attributed to the impact of CC. The combined impact of LULCC and CC results in a net increase in streamflow by 9.6% and 19.9% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period. Our findings indicate that climate change outweighs the impact of land use/cover (LULC) in the basin, emphasizing the importance of incorporating comprehensive water resources management and adaptation approaches to address the changing hydrological conditions. Full article

Water footprints have been widely used to illustrate the consumption of water in many situations, for instance, in products, processes, or regions of interest. In this work, we analyzed—using a sensitivity analysis approach—the effect of some variables in the calculation of the water footprint in the viticulture in the Brazilian Serra Gaúcha (the major producing region of Brazilian wine). The classical Penman–Monteith model for evapotransporation was considered, with uncertainties in some parameters (dead mulch covering a fraction of the vineyard, maximum temperatures for some months, the altitudes and latitudes of the site). A sensitivity analysis was conducted using the SAFE toolbox under Octave framework. The results indicated that the the portion of the water footprint corresponding to evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the values of the mulch-covered fraction and the altitude of the site in comparison with the latitude and the maximum temperatures. Full article

Land use land cover (LULC) changes resulting from copper exploration in Kitwe District, Copperbelt Province has adversely impacted the environment. To understand LULC change dynamics associated with mining activities, this study mapped LULC changes using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) from 1990 to 2020. In addition, the Zambian legal framework for mine closure was assessed in terms of adequacy and comprehensiveness. A remote sensing analysis using Landsat TM (1990, 2000, and 2010) and OLI (2020) images was performed and the GEE Random Forest classifier algorithm was employed to detect LULC changes. Then, transition matrices and overall changes were calculated for each LULC class. The LULC classification had an overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of 82.47% and 0.78, respectively. In total, 45.2% of the district area (360.92 km²) experienced LULC changes from 1990 to 2020. The overall change indicates that the areas of built-up area, bare land, and grassland/pasture/agricultural land gained 35.84, 14.67, and 43.53 km², respectively, while forest lost 95.30 km², with the major driver being the privatization of mining companies. Several concerns regarding the mine closure process practiced in Zambia have principally been raised to the government. Although the legislation generally conformed to international best practices, a gap involving various pieces of legislation, overlapping requirements, and different interpretations of the laws by different governmental departments makes the system complex and unmanageable. An area of concern is the government’s capability and competence to implement legislation. Ineffective law enforcement, that is, the inadequacy of the legislation, is to blame for LULC changes in mining areas, resulting in mining corporations not paying attention to the changes made, particularly regarding mine closures. This study provides decision-makers and land use planners with baseline knowledge on LULC changes that can be valuable for future mining legislation and how these legislations can be effectively executed to ensure sustainable mine closure. Full article