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Keywords = von Foerster–McKendrick model

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20 pages, 2324 KiB  
Article
A Population Pyramid Dynamics Model and Its Analytical Solution. Application Case for Spain
by Joan C. Micó
Mathematics 2022, 10(19), 3443; https://doi.org/10.3390/math10193443 - 22 Sep 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3592
Abstract
This paper presents the population pyramid dynamics model (PPDM) to study the evolution of the population pyramid of a determined country or society, deducing as a crucial objective its exact analytical solution. The PPDM is a first-order linear partial differential equation whose unknown [...] Read more.
This paper presents the population pyramid dynamics model (PPDM) to study the evolution of the population pyramid of a determined country or society, deducing as a crucial objective its exact analytical solution. The PPDM is a first-order linear partial differential equation whose unknown variable is the population density (population per age unit) depending on time and age, jointly an initial condition in the initial time and a boundary condition given by the births in the zero age. In addition, the dynamical patterns of the crude birth, death, immigration and emigration rates depending on time, jointly with the mathematical pattern of the initial population pyramid depending on ages, take part of the PPDM. These patterns can be obtained from the historical data. An application case of the PPDM analytical solution is presented: Spain, in the 2007–2021 period for its validation, and in the 2021–2026 period for its future forecasting. This application case also permits to obtain the forecasting limits of the PPDM by comparing the historical data with those provided by the PPDM. Other variables that can be obtained from the historical population pyramids data, such as the dependency ratio and the life expectancy at birth, are considered. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Methods and Models in Nature and Society)
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15 pages, 3674 KiB  
Article
Minimizing Dependency Ratio in Spain through Demographic Variables
by Joan C. Micó, David Soler, Maria T. Sanz, Antonio Caselles and Salvador Amigó
Mathematics 2022, 10(9), 1471; https://doi.org/10.3390/math10091471 - 27 Apr 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2221
Abstract
The population pyramids in Europe have changed in the last decades, particularly in Spain, where population aging is observed and implies an increase in the dependency ratio. The present study aims to modify a mathematical model of population defined by age and sex [...] Read more.
The population pyramids in Europe have changed in the last decades, particularly in Spain, where population aging is observed and implies an increase in the dependency ratio. The present study aims to modify a mathematical model of population defined by age and sex based on the von Foerster-Mckendrick equations in order to have birth and migration rates as control variables. To achieve this objective, the necessary mathematical changes are made in the model, and the new mathematical model is verified and validated for the case of Spain, in the period 2008–2019, being considered successful both in its deterministic and stochastic formulation. Finally, through the method of strategies and scenarios and a genetic algorithm, a modification of the population pyramid is obtained in the direction of a decrease in the dependency ratio, increasing the birth rate and immigration and decreasing the emigration rate. These changes lead to a modification of the population pyramid in the year 2040; in particular, an increase of the female population in the age range from 20 to 39 years old. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Models and Methods in Engineering and Social Sciences)
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