Search Results (430)

In the context of global efforts toward energy conservation and emission reduction, accurate short-term electric load forecasting plays a crucial role in improving energy efficiency, enabling low-carbon dispatching, and supporting sustainable power system operations. To address the growing demand for accuracy and stability in this domain, this paper proposes a novel prediction model tailored for power systems. The proposed method combines Spearman correlation analysis with modal decomposition techniques to compress redundant features while preserving key information, resulting in more informative and cleaner input representations. In terms of model architecture, this study integrates Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRUs) with dilated convolution. This design improves the model’s capacity to capture long-range dependencies and complex relationships. For parameter optimization, an Improved Beluga Whale Optimization (IBWO) algorithm is introduced, incorporating dynamic population initialization, adaptive Lévy flight mechanisms, and refined convergence procedures to enhance search efficiency and robustness. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed model achieves excellent forecasting performance (RMSE = 26.1706, MAE = 18.5462, R² = 0.9812), combining high predictive accuracy with strong generalization. These advancements contribute to more efficient energy scheduling and reduced environmental impact, making the model well-suited for intelligent and sustainable load forecasting applications in environmentally conscious power systems. Full article

Park-level integrated energy systems (IESs) are increasingly challenged by rapid electrification and higher penetration of renewable energy, which exacerbate source–load imbalances and scheduling uncertainty. This study proposes a unified framework that couples high-accuracy cooling and heating load forecasting with day-ahead coordinated optimization for an office park in Tianjin. The forecasting module employs correlation-based feature selection and variational mode decomposition (VMD) to capture multi-scale dynamics, and a sparrow search algorithm (SSA)-driven long short-term memory network (LSTM), with hyperparameters globally tuned by root mean square error to improve generalization and robustness. The scheduling module performs day-ahead optimization across source, grid, load, and storage to minimize either (i) the standard deviation (SD) of purchased power to reduce grid impact, or (ii) the total operating cost (OC) to achieve economic performance. On the case dataset, the proposed method achieves mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of 8.32% for cooling and 5.80% for heating, outperforming several baselines and validating the benefits of multi-scale decomposition combined with intelligent hyperparameter searching. Embedding forecasts into day-ahead scheduling substantially reduces external purchases: on representative days, forecast-driven optimization lowers the SD of purchased electricity from 29.6% to 88.1% across heating and cooling seasons; seasonally, OCs decrease from 6.4% to 15.1% in heating and 3.8% to 11.6% in cooling. Overall, the framework enhances grid friendliness, peak–valley coordination, and the stability, flexibility, and low-carbon economics of park-level IESs. Full article

This study develops an explainable machine learning framework for wildfire prediction across Australia, integrating region-specific models and feature attribution to identify key environmental drivers. Three wildfire indicators, Estimated Fire Area (FA), Mean Fire Brightness Temperature (FBT), and Fire Radiative Power (FRP), were modeled using Lasso, Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. Performance metrics (RMSEC, RMSECV, RMSEP) confirmed strong calibration and generalization, with Tasmania and Queensland achieving the lowest prediction errors for FA and FRP, respectively. Feature importance and SHAP analyses revealed that soil moisture, solar radiation, precipitation, and humidity variability are dominant predictors. Extremes and variance-based measures proved more influential than mean climatic values, indicating that fire dynamics respond non-linearly to environmental fluctuations. Lasso models captured stable linear dependencies in arid regions, while ensemble models effectively represented complex interactions in tropical climates. The results highlight a hierarchical process where cumulative soil and radiation stress establish fire potential, and short-term meteorological variability drives ignition and spread. Projected climate shifts, declining soil water and increased radiative load, are likely to intensify these drivers. The framework supports interpretable, region-specific mitigation planning and paves the way for incorporating generative AI and multi-source data fusion to enhance real-time wildfire forecasting. Full article

Conventional power load forecasting frameworks face limitations in dynamic spatial topology capture and long-term dependency modeling. To address these issues, this study proposes a hybrid GAT-CNN-LSTM architecture for enhanced short-term power load forecasting. The model integrates three core components synergistically: Graph Attention Network (GAT) dynamically captures spatial correlations via adaptive node weighting, resolving static topology constraints; a CNN-LSTM module extracts multi-scale temporal features—convolutional kernels decompose load fluctuations, while bidirectional LSTM layers model long-term trends; and a gated fusion mechanism adaptively weights and fuses spatio-temporal features, suppressing noise and enhancing sensitivity to critical load periods. Experimental validations on multi-city datasets show significant improvements: the model outperforms baseline models by a notable margin in error reduction, exhibits stronger robustness under extreme weather, and maintains superior stability in multi-step forecasting. This study concludes that the hybrid model balances spatial topological analysis and temporal trend modeling, providing higher accuracy and adaptability for STLF in complex power grid environments. Full article

Virtual Power Plant (VPP) is capable of aggregating and intelligently coordinating diverse distributed energy resources, among which the accuracy of load forecasting is a key factor in ensuring their regulation capability. To address the periodicity and complex nonlinear fluctuations of electricity load data, this study introduces a Cyclic Order Mapping (COM) encoding method, which maps weekly and intraday sequences into continuous ordered variables on the unit circle, thereby effectively preserving load periodic features. On the basis of the COM encoding, a novel forecasting model is proposed by integrating Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks, an efficient self-attention mechanism, and the Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN). This model is termed BiLSTM-Att-KAN. Comparative and ablation experiments were conducted to assess the scientific validity and predictive accuracy of the proposed approach. The results confirm its superiority, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 141.403, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 106.687, and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.962. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in enhancing load forecasting performance for VPP applications. Full article

This paper presents an optimized hybrid deep learning model for power load forecasting—QR-FMD-CNN-BiGRU-Attention—that integrates similar day selection, load decomposition, and deep learning to address the nonlinearity and volatility of power load data. Firstly, the original data are classified using Gaussian Mixture Clustering optimized by ICPO (ICPO-GMM), and similar day samples consistent with the predicted day category are selected. Secondly, the load data are decomposed into multi-scale components (IMFs) using feature mode decomposition optimized by ICPO (ICPO-FMD). Then, with the IMFs as targets, the quantile interval forecasting is trained using the CNN-BiGRU-Attention model optimized by ICPO. Subsequently, the forecasting model is applied to the features of the predicted day to generate interval forecasting results. Finally, the model’s performance is validated through comparative evaluation metrics, sensitivity analysis, and interpretability analysis. The experimental results show that compared with the comparative algorithm presented in this paper, the improved model has improved RMSE by at least 39.84%, MAE by 26.12%, MAPE by 45.28%, PICP and MPIW indicators by at least 3.80% and 2.27%, indicating that the model not only outperforms the comparative model in accuracy, but also exhibits stronger adaptability and robustness in complex load fluctuation scenarios. Full article

Distribution-level long-term load forecasting with hourly resolution is essential for modern power systems operation, yet it remains challenging due to complex temporal patterns and error accumulation over extended horizons. This study proposes a Multi-Resolution Residual LSTNet framework integrating Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTNet), and Normalized Linear (NLinear) models for accurate one-year ahead hourly load forecasting. The methodology decomposes load time series into daily, weekly, and monthly components using multi-resolution DWT, applies direct forecasting with LSTNet to capture short-term and long-term dependencies, performs residual correction using NLinear models, and integrates predictions through dynamic weighting mechanisms. Validation using five years of Korean distribution feeder data (2015–2019) demonstrates significant performance improvements over benchmark methods including Autoformer, LSTM, and NLinear, achieving Mean Absolute Error of 0.5771, Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 17.29%, and Huber Loss of 0.2567. The approach effectively mitigates error accumulation common in long-term forecasting while maintaining hourly resolution, providing practical value for demand response, distributed resource control, and infrastructure planning without requiring external variables. Full article

Ensuring grid stability in the transition to renewable energy sources requires accurate power demand forecasting. This study addresses the need for precise forecasting by differentiating among industrial, commercial, and residential consumers through customer clusterisation, tailoring the forecasting models to capture the unique consumption patterns of each group. Feature selection incorporated temporal, socio-economic, and weather-related data obtained from the Copernicus Earth Observation (EO) program. A variety of AI and machine learning algorithms for short-term load forecasting (STLF) and very-short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) are explored and compared, determining the most effective approaches. With all that, the main contribution of this work are the new forecasting approaches proposed, which have demonstrated superior performance compared to simpler models, both for STLF and VSTLF, highlighting the importance of customized forecasting strategies for different consumer groups and demonstrating the impact of incorporating detailed weather data on forecasting accuracy. These advancements contribute to more reliable power demand predictions, with our novel forecasting approaches reducing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by up to 1–3% for industrial and 1–10% for commercial consumers compared to baseline models, thereby supporting grid stability. Full article

In the context of low carbon, achieving accurate forecasting of electrical energy is critical for power management with the continuous development of power systems. For the sake of improving the performance of load forecasting, an improved MNet-Atten electric vehicle charging load forecasting based on composite decomposition and the evolutionary predator–prey and strategy model is proposed. In this light, through the data decomposition theory, each subsequence is processed using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and filters out high-frequency white noise by using singular value decomposition based on matrix operation, which improves the anti-interference ability and computational efficiency of the model. In the model construction stage, the MNet-Atten prediction model is developed and constructed. The convolution module is used to mine the local dependencies of the sequences, and the long term and short-term features of the data are extracted through the loop and loop skip modules to improve the predictability of the data itself. Furthermore, the evolutionary predator and prey strategy is used to iteratively optimize the learning rate of the MNet-Atten for improving the forecasting performance and convergence speed of the model. The autoregressive module is used to enhance the ability of the neural network to identify linear features and improve the prediction performance of the model. Increasing temporal attention to give more weight to important features for global and local linkage capture. Additionally, the electric vehicle charging load data in a certain region, as an example, is verified, and the average value of 30 running times of the combined model proposed is 117.3231 s, and the correlation coefficient PCC of the CEEMD-SVD-EPPS-MNet-Atten model is closer to 1. Furthermore, the CEEMD-SVD-EPPS-MNet-Atten model has the lowest MAPE, RMSE, and PCC. The results show that the model in this paper can better extract the characteristics of the data, improve the modeling efficiency, and have a high data prediction accuracy. Full article

With the large-scale development of smart grids and the integration of renewable energy, the operational complexity and load volatility of power systems have increased significantly, placing higher demands on the accuracy and timeliness of electricity load forecasting. However, existing methods struggle to capture the nonlinear and volatile characteristics of load sequences, often exhibiting insufficient fitting and poor generalization in peak and abrupt change scenarios. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a deep learning model named CGA-LoadNet, which integrates a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), gated recurrent units (GRUs), and a self-attention mechanism. The model is capable of simultaneously extracting local temporal features and long-term dependencies. To validate its effectiveness, we conducted experiments on a publicly available electricity load dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that CGA-LoadNet significantly outperforms baseline models, achieving the best performance on key metrics with an $R^2$ of 0.993, RMSE of 18.44, MAE of 13.94, and MAPE of 1.72, thereby confirming the effectiveness and practical potential of its architectural design. Overall, CGA-LoadNet more accurately fits actual load curves, particularly in complex regions, such as load peaks and abrupt changes, providing an efficient and robust solution for short-term load forecasting in smart grid scenarios. Full article

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is essential for efficient energy management, grid reliability, and cost optimization. This study presents a comprehensive comparison of five supervised learning models—Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), a hybrid (CNN-LSTM) architecture, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)—using multivariate data from the Greek electricity market between 2015 and 2024. The dataset incorporates hourly load, temperature, humidity, and holiday indicators. Extensive preprocessing was applied, including K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) imputation, time-based feature extraction, and normalization. Models were trained using a 70:20:10 train–validation–test split and evaluated with standard performance metrics: MAE, MSE, RMSE, NRMSE, MAPE, and $R^2$. The experimental findings show that LightGBM beat deep learning (DL) models on all evaluation metrics and had the best MAE (69.12 MW), RMSE (101.67 MW), and MAPE (1.20%) and the highest $R^2$ (0.9942) for the test set. It also outperformed models in the literature and operational forecasts conducted in the real world by ENTSO-E. Though LSTM performed well, particularly in long-term dependency capturing, it performed a bit worse in high-variance periods. CNN, GRU, and hybrid models demonstrated moderate results, but they tended to underfit or overfit in some circumstances. These findings highlight the efficacy of LightGBM in structured time-series forecasting tasks, offering a scalable and interpretable alternative to DL models. This study supports its potential for real-world deployment in smart/distribution grid applications and provides valuable insights into the trade-offs between accuracy, complexity, and generalization in load forecasting models. Full article

Accurate very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) is critical to ensure a secure operation of power systems under increasing uncertainty due to renewables. This study proposes an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-based VSTLF model that incorporates day-ahead load forecasts (DALF) results and load variation features. DALF results provide trend information for the target time, while load variation, the difference in historical electric load, captures residual patterns. The load reconstitution method is also adapted to mitigate the forecasting uncertainty caused by behind-the-meter (BTM) photovoltaic (PV) generation. Input features for the proposed VSTLF model are selected using Kendall’s tau correlation coefficient and a feature importance score to remove irrelevant variables. A case study with real data from the Korean power system confirms the proposed model’s high forecasting accuracy and robustness. Full article

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources, driven by carbon neutrality goals, has intensified load variability, thereby making very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) more challenging. Accurate VSTLF is essential for the reliable and economical real-time operation of power systems. This study proposes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based VSTLF model designed to predict nationwide power system load, including renewable generation over a six-hour horizon with 15 min intervals. The model employs a reconstituted load approach that incorporates photovoltaic (PV) generation effects and computes representative weather variables across the country. Furthermore, the most informative input features are selected through a combination of correlation analyses. To further enhance input sequences, pseudo-trend components are generated using a Kalman filter-based predictor and integrated into the model input. The Kalman filter-based pseudo-trend produced an MAPE of 1.724%, and its inclusion in the proposed model reduced the forecasting error (MAPE) by 0.834 percentage points. Consequently, the final model achieved an MAPE of 0.890%, which is under 1% of the 94,929 MW nationwide peak load. Full article

This study combines an experimental semi-physical simulation model of an electric propulsion tugboat with four different neural networks to create a real-time simulation model for forecasting total power loads with small samples. The results of repeated experiments demonstrate that the BP neural network effectively forecasts the power load. Subsequently, addressing the limitations of traditional BP neural networks, an optimization approach employing an enhanced particle swarm algorithm and attention mechanism was developed, thereby improving the model’s prediction accuracy and robustness. The experiment shows that the improved prediction model achieves an R² value of 97.42%, demonstrating its effectiveness in forecasting changes in the short-term power load of ships as parameters change. In actual operation, ships can allocate power reasonably and in a timely manner according to the load forecast results, thereby improving the efficiency of the power grid. Full article

Ice loads continue to pose challenges to the structural safety of offshore wind turbines (OWTs), while the rapid development of offshore wind power in cold regions is enabling the deployment of OWTs in deeper waters. To accurately simulate the dynamic response of an OWT under combined ice–wind loading, this paper proposes a Discrete Element Method–Wind Turbine Integrated Analysis (DEM-WTIA) framework. The framework can synchronously simulate discontinuous ice-crushing processes and aeroelastic–structural dynamic responses through a holistic turbine model that incorporates rotor dynamics and control systems. To address the issue of insufficient prediction accuracy for dynamic responses, we introduced a multivariate time series forecasting method that integrates a secondary decomposition strategy with a hybrid prediction model. First, we developed a parallel signal processing mechanism, termed Adaptive Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Improved Singular Spectrum Analysis (CEEMDAN-ISSA), which achieves adaptive denoising via permutation entropy-driven dynamic window optimization and multi-feature fusion-based anomaly detection, yielding a noise suppression rate of 76.4%. Furthermore, we propose the F-Transformer prediction model, which incorporates a Frequency-Enhanced Channel Attention Mechanism (FECAM). By integrating the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) into the Transformer architecture, the F-Transformer mines hidden features in the frequency domain, capturing potential periodicities in discontinuous data. Experimental results demonstrate that signals processed by ISSA exhibit increased signal-to-noise ratios and enhanced fidelity. The F-Transformer achieves a maximum reduction of 31.86% in mean squared error compared to the standard Transformer and maintains a coefficient of determination (R²) above 0.91 under multi-condition coupled testing. By combining adaptive decomposition and frequency-domain enhancement techniques, this framework provides a precise and highly adaptable ultra-short-term response forecasting tool for the safe operation and maintenance of offshore wind power in cold regions. Full article