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Keywords = recurrent NeuroFuzzy

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30 pages, 6996 KB  
Article
Time-Series Prediction of Failures in an Industrial Assembly Line Using Artificial Learning
by Mert Can Sen and Mahmut Alkan
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(11), 5984; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15115984 - 26 May 2025
Viewed by 910
Abstract
This study evaluates the efficacy of six artificial learning (AL) models—nonlinear autoregressive (NAR), long short-term memory (LSTM), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), gated recurrent unit (GRU), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and CNN-RNN hybrid networks—for time-series data for failure prediction in aerospace assembly lines. The [...] Read more.
This study evaluates the efficacy of six artificial learning (AL) models—nonlinear autoregressive (NAR), long short-term memory (LSTM), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), gated recurrent unit (GRU), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and CNN-RNN hybrid networks—for time-series data for failure prediction in aerospace assembly lines. The data consist of 45,654 records of configurations of failure. The models are trained to predict failures and assessed via error metrics (RMSE, MAE, MAPE), residual analysis, variance analysis, and computational efficiency. The results indicate that NAR and MLP models, respectively, achieve the lowest residuals (clustered near zero) and minimal variance, demonstrating robust calibration and stability. MLP exhibits strong accuracy (MAE = 2.122, MAPE = 0.876%, RMSE = 1.418, and ME = 1.145) but higher residual variability, while LSTM and CNN-RNN show sensitivity to data noise and computational inefficiency. ANFIS balances interpretability and performance but requires extensive training iterations. The study underscores NAR as optimal for precision-critical aerospace applications, where error minimisation and generalisability are paramount. However, the reliance on a single failure-related variable “configuration” and exclusion of exogenous factors may constrain holistic failure prediction. These findings advance predictive maintenance strategies in high-stakes manufacturing environments with future work integrating multivariable datasets and domain-specific constraints. Full article
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20 pages, 3646 KB  
Article
Short-Term Load Forecasting of the Greek Power System Using a Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Neural Network
by George Kandilogiannakis, Paris Mastorocostas, Athanasios Voulodimos and Constantinos Hilas
Energies 2023, 16(10), 4227; https://doi.org/10.3390/en16104227 - 20 May 2023
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1963
Abstract
A dynamic fuzzy neural network for short-term load forecasting of the Greek power system is proposed, and an hourly based prediction for the whole year is performed. A DBD-FELF (Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Electric Load Forecaster) consists of fuzzy rules with consequent parts that [...] Read more.
A dynamic fuzzy neural network for short-term load forecasting of the Greek power system is proposed, and an hourly based prediction for the whole year is performed. A DBD-FELF (Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Electric Load Forecaster) consists of fuzzy rules with consequent parts that are neural networks with internal recurrence. These networks have a hidden layer, which consists of pairs of neurons with feedback connections between them. The overall fuzzy model partitions the input space in partially overlapping fuzzy regions, where the recurrent neural networks of the respective rules operate. The partition of the input space and determination of the fuzzy rule base is performed via the use of the Fuzzy C-Means clustering algorithm, and the RENNCOM constrained optimization method is applied for consequent parameter tuning. The performance of DBD-FELF is tested via extensive experimental analysis, and the results are promising, since an average percentage error of 1.18% is attained, along with an average yearly absolute error of 76.2 MW. Moreover, DBD-FELF is compared with Deep Learning, fuzzy and neurofuzzy rivals, such that its particular attributes are highlighted. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Energy Consumption and Load Forecasting Challenges)
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25 pages, 6680 KB  
Article
Fault Identification and Classification of Asynchronous Motor Drive Using Optimization Approach with Improved Reliability
by Gopu Venugopal, Arun Kumar Udayakumar, Adhavan Balashanmugham, Mohamad Abou Houran, Faisal Alsaif, Rajvikram Madurai Elavarasan, Kannadasan Raju and Mohammed H. Alsharif
Energies 2023, 16(6), 2660; https://doi.org/10.3390/en16062660 - 12 Mar 2023
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2711
Abstract
This article aims to provide a technique for identifying and categorizing interturn insulation problems in variable-speed motor drives by combining Salp Swarm Optimization (SSO) with Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). The goal of the proposed technique is to detect and classify Asynchronous Motor faults [...] Read more.
This article aims to provide a technique for identifying and categorizing interturn insulation problems in variable-speed motor drives by combining Salp Swarm Optimization (SSO) with Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). The goal of the proposed technique is to detect and classify Asynchronous Motor faults at their early stages, under both normal and abnormal operating conditions. The proposed technique uses a recurrent neural network in two phases to identify and label interturn insulation concerns, with the first phase being utilised to establish whether or not the motors are healthy. In the second step, it discovers and categorises potentially dangerous interturn errors. The SSO approach is used in the second phase of the recurrent neural network learning procedure, with the goal function of minimizing error in mind. The proposed CSSRN technique simplifies the system for detecting and categorizing the interturn insulation issue, resulting in increased system precision. In addition, the proposed model is implemented in the MATLAB/Simulink, where metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and specificity may be analysed. Similarly, existing methods such as Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Salp Swarm Algorithm Artificial Neural Network (SSAANN) are utilised to evaluate metrics such as Root mean squared error (RMSE), Mean bias error (MBE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), consumption, and execution time for comparative analysis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Electric Machinery and Transformers II)
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31 pages, 6205 KB  
Article
Design and Conceptual Proposal of an Intelligent Clinical Decision Support System for the Diagnosis of Suspicious Obstructive Sleep Apnea Patients from Health Profile
by Manuel Casal-Guisande, María Torres-Durán, Mar Mosteiro-Añón, Jorge Cerqueiro-Pequeño, José-Benito Bouza-Rodríguez, Alberto Fernández-Villar and Alberto Comesaña-Campos
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20(4), 3627; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043627 - 18 Feb 2023
Cited by 23 | Viewed by 3187
Abstract
Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) is a chronic sleep-related pathology characterized by recurrent episodes of total or partial obstruction of the upper airways during sleep. It entails a high impact on the health and quality of life of patients, affecting more than one thousand [...] Read more.
Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) is a chronic sleep-related pathology characterized by recurrent episodes of total or partial obstruction of the upper airways during sleep. It entails a high impact on the health and quality of life of patients, affecting more than one thousand million people worldwide, which has resulted in an important public health concern in recent years. The usual diagnosis involves performing a sleep test, cardiorespiratory polygraphy, or polysomnography, which allows characterizing the pathology and assessing its severity. However, this procedure cannot be used on a massive scale in general screening studies of the population because of its execution and implementation costs; therefore, causing an increase in waiting lists which would negatively affect the health of the affected patients. Additionally, the symptoms shown by these patients are often unspecific, as well as appealing to the general population (excessive somnolence, snoring, etc.), causing many potential cases to be referred for a sleep study when in reality are not suffering from OSA. This paper proposes a novel intelligent clinical decision support system to be applied to the diagnosis of OSA that can be used in early outpatient stages, quickly, easily, and safely, when a suspicious OSA patient attends the consultation. Starting from information related to the patient’s health profile (anthropometric data, habits, comorbidities, or medications taken), the system is capable of determining different alert levels of suffering from sleep apnea associated with different apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) levels to be studied. To that end, a series of automatic learning algorithms are deployed that, working concurrently, together with a corrective approach based on the use of an Adaptive Neuro-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and a specific heuristic algorithm, allow the calculation of a series of labels associated with the different levels of AHI previously indicated. For the initial software implementation, a data set with 4600 patients from the Álvaro Cunqueiro Hospital in Vigo was used. The results obtained after performing the proof tests determined ROC curves with AUC values in the range 0.8–0.9, and Matthews correlation coefficient values close to 0.6, with high success rates. This points to its potential use as a support tool for the diagnostic process, not only from the point of view of improving the quality of the services provided, but also from the best use of hospital resources and the consequent savings in terms of costs and time. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Obstructive Sleep Apnoea)
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40 pages, 18678 KB  
Article
Adaptive Neural Network Q-Learning-Based Full Recurrent Adaptive NeuroFuzzy Nonlinear Control Paradigms for Bidirectional-Interlinking Converter in a Grid-Connected Hybrid AC-DC Microgrid
by Muhammad Awais, Laiq Khan, Said Ghani Khan, Qasim Awais and Mohsin Jamil
Energies 2023, 16(4), 1902; https://doi.org/10.3390/en16041902 - 14 Feb 2023
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 2523
Abstract
The stability of a hybrid AC-DC microgrid depends mainly upon the bidirectional interlinking converter (BIC), which is responsible for power transfer, power balance, voltage solidity, frequency and transients sanity. The varying generation from renewable resources, fluctuating loads, and bidirectional power flow from the [...] Read more.
The stability of a hybrid AC-DC microgrid depends mainly upon the bidirectional interlinking converter (BIC), which is responsible for power transfer, power balance, voltage solidity, frequency and transients sanity. The varying generation from renewable resources, fluctuating loads, and bidirectional power flow from the utility grid, charging station, super-capacitor, and batteries produce various stability issues on hybrid microgrids, like net active-reactive power flow on the AC-bus, frequency oscillations, total harmonic distortion (THD), and voltage variations. Therefore, the control of BIC between AC and DC buses in grid-connected hybrid microgrid power systems is of great importance for the quality/smooth operation of power flow, power sharing and stability of the whole power system. In literature, various control schemes are suggested, like conventional droop control, communication-based control, model predictive control, etc., each addressing different stability issues of hybrid AC-DC microgrids. However, model dependence, single-point-failure (SPF), communication vulnerability, complex computations, and complicated multilayer structures motivated the authors to develop online adaptive neural network (NN) Q-learning-based full recurrent adaptive neurofuzzy nonlinear control paradigms for BIC in a grid-connected hybrid AC-DC microgrid. The proposed strategies successfully ensure the following: (i) frequency stabilization, (ii) THD reduction, (iii) voltage normalization and (iv) negligible net active-reactive power flow on the AC-bus. Three novel adaptive NN Q-learning-based full recurrent adaptive neurofuzzy nonlinear control paradigms are proposed for PQ-control of BIC in a grid-connected hybrid AC-DC microgrid. The control schemes are based on NN Q-learning and full recurrent adaptive neurofuzzy identifiers. Hybrid adaptive full recurrent Legendre wavelet-based Neural Network Q-learning-based full recurrent adaptive NeuroFuzzy control, Hybrid adaptive full recurrent Mexican hat wavelet-based Neural Network Q-learning-based full recurrent adaptive NeuroFuzzy control, and Hybrid adaptive full recurrent Morlet wavelet-based Neural Network Q-learning-based full recurrent adaptive NeuroFuzzy control are modeled and tested for the control of BIC. The controllers differ from each other, based on variants used in the antecedent part (Gaussian membership function and B-Spline membership function), and consequent part (Legendre wavelet, Mexican hat wavelet, and Morlet wavelet) of the full recurrent adaptive neurofuzzy identifiers. The performance of the proposed control schemes was validated for various quality and stability parameters, using a simulation testbench in MATLAB/Simulink. The simulation results were bench-marked against an aPID controller, and each proposed control scheme, for a simulation time of a complete solar day. Full article
(This article belongs to the Topic Power Electronics Converters)
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27 pages, 11533 KB  
Article
Management of Landslides in a Rural–Urban Transition Zone Using Machine Learning Algorithms—A Case Study of a National Highway (NH-44), India, in the Rugged Himalayan Terrains
by Mohsin Fayaz, Gowhar Meraj, Sheik Abdul Khader, Majid Farooq, Shruti Kanga, Suraj Kumar Singh, Pankaj Kumar and Netrananda Sahu
Land 2022, 11(6), 884; https://doi.org/10.3390/land11060884 - 10 Jun 2022
Cited by 25 | Viewed by 6417
Abstract
Landslides are critical natural disasters characterized by a downward movement of land masses. As one of the deadliest types of disasters worldwide, they have a high death toll every year and cause a large amount of economic damage. The transition between urban and [...] Read more.
Landslides are critical natural disasters characterized by a downward movement of land masses. As one of the deadliest types of disasters worldwide, they have a high death toll every year and cause a large amount of economic damage. The transition between urban and rural areas is characterized by highways, which, in rugged Himalayan terrain, have to be constructed by cutting into the mountains, thereby destabilizing them and making them prone to landslides. This study was conducted landslide-prone regions of the entire Himalayan belt, i.e., National Highway NH-44 (the Jammu–Srinagar stretch). The main objectives of this study are to understand the causes behind the regular recurrence of the landslides in this region and propose a landslide early warning system (LEWS) based on the most suitable machine learning algorithms among the four selected, i.e., multiple linear regression, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), random forest, and decision tree. It was found that ANFIS and random forest outperformed the other proposed methods with a substantial increase in overall accuracy. The LEWS model was developed using the land system parameters that govern landslide occurrence, such as rainfall, soil moisture, distance to the road and river, slope, land surface temperature (LST), and the built-up area (BUA) near the landslide site. The developed LEWS was validated using various statistical error assessment tools such as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), confusion matrix, out-of-bag (OOB) error estimation, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The outcomes of this study can help to manage landslide hazards in the Himalayan urban–rural transition zones and serve as a sample study for similar mountainous regions of the world. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rural Land Management Interaction with Urbanization)
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18 pages, 4679 KB  
Article
ReNFuzz-LF: A Recurrent Neurofuzzy System for Short-Term Load Forecasting
by George Kandilogiannakis, Paris Mastorocostas and Athanasios Voulodimos
Energies 2022, 15(10), 3637; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15103637 - 16 May 2022
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2179
Abstract
A neurofuzzy system is proposed for short-term electric load forecasting. The fuzzy rule base of ReNFuzz-LF consists of rules with dynamic consequent parts that are small-scale recurrent neural networks with one hidden layer, whose neurons have local output feedback. The particular representation maintains [...] Read more.
A neurofuzzy system is proposed for short-term electric load forecasting. The fuzzy rule base of ReNFuzz-LF consists of rules with dynamic consequent parts that are small-scale recurrent neural networks with one hidden layer, whose neurons have local output feedback. The particular representation maintains the local learning nature of the typical static fuzzy model, since the dynamic consequent parts of the fuzzy rules can be considered as subsystems operating at the subspaces defined by the fuzzy premise parts, and they are interconnected through the defuzzification part. The Greek power system is examined, and hourly based predictions are extracted for the whole year. The recurrent nature of the forecaster leads to the use of a minimal set of inputs, since the temporal relations of the electric load time-series are identified without any prior knowledge of the appropriate past load values being necessary. An extensive simulation analysis is conducted, and the forecaster’s performance is evaluated using appropriate metrics (APE, RMSE, forecast error duration curve). ReNFuzz-LF performs efficiently, attaining an average percentage error of 1.35% and an average yearly absolute error of 86.3 MW. Finally, the performance of the proposed forecaster is compared to a series of Computational Intelligence based models, such that the learning characteristics of ReNFuzz-LF are highlighted. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Challenges and Research Trends of Computational Intelligence)
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17 pages, 12257 KB  
Article
Estimating the Relative Crystallinity of Biodegradable Polylactic Acid and Polyglycolide Polymer Composites by Machine Learning Methodologies
by Jing Wang, Mohamed Arselene Ayari, Amith Khandakar, Muhammad E. H. Chowdhury, Sm Ashfaq Uz Zaman, Tawsifur Rahman and Behzad Vaferi
Polymers 2022, 14(3), 527; https://doi.org/10.3390/polym14030527 - 28 Jan 2022
Cited by 38 | Viewed by 5115
Abstract
Biodegradable polymers have recently found significant applications in pharmaceutics processing and drug release/delivery. Composites based on poly (L-lactic acid) (PLLA) have been suggested to enhance the crystallization rate and relative crystallinity of pure PLLA polymers. Despite the large amount of experimental research that [...] Read more.
Biodegradable polymers have recently found significant applications in pharmaceutics processing and drug release/delivery. Composites based on poly (L-lactic acid) (PLLA) have been suggested to enhance the crystallization rate and relative crystallinity of pure PLLA polymers. Despite the large amount of experimental research that has taken place to date, the theoretical aspects of relative crystallinity have not been comprehensively investigated. Therefore, this research uses machine learning methods to estimate the relative crystallinity of biodegradable PLLA/PGA (polyglycolide) composites. Six different artificial intelligent classes were employed to estimate the relative crystallinity of PLLA/PGA polymer composites as a function of crystallization time, temperature, and PGA content. Cumulatively, 1510 machine learning topologies, including 200 multilayer perceptron neural networks, 200 cascade feedforward neural networks (CFFNN), 160 recurrent neural networks, 800 adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems, and 150 least-squares support vector regressions, were developed, and their prediction accuracy compared. The modeling results show that a single hidden layer CFFNN with 9 neurons is the most accurate method for estimating 431 experimentally measured datasets. This model predicts an experimental database with an average absolute percentage difference of 8.84%, root mean squared errors of 4.67%, and correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.999008. The modeling results and relevancy studies show that relative crystallinity increases based on the PGA content and crystallization time. Furthermore, the effect of temperature on relative crystallinity is too complex to be easily explained. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Crystallization in Polymer Science)
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17 pages, 11070 KB  
Article
Feedback-Linearization-Based Fuel-Cell Adaptive-Control Paradigm in a Microgrid Using a Wavelet-Entrenched NeuroFuzzy Framework
by Muhammad Awais, Laiq Khan, Saghir Ahmad and Mohsin Jamil
Energies 2021, 14(7), 1850; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14071850 - 26 Mar 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2372
Abstract
The article portrays an adaptive control paradigm for the swift response of a solid-oxide fuel cell (SOFC) in a grid-connected microgrid. The control scheme is based on an adaptive feedback-linearization-embedded fully recurrent NeuroFuzzy Laguerre wavelet control (FBL-FRNF-Lag-WC) framework. The nonlinear functions of feedback [...] Read more.
The article portrays an adaptive control paradigm for the swift response of a solid-oxide fuel cell (SOFC) in a grid-connected microgrid. The control scheme is based on an adaptive feedback-linearization-embedded fully recurrent NeuroFuzzy Laguerre wavelet control (FBL-FRNF-Lag-WC) framework. The nonlinear functions of feedback linearization (FBL) are estimated using a fully recurrent NeuroFuzzy Laguerre wavelet control (FRNF-Lag-WC) architecture with a recurrent Gaussian membership function in the antecedent part and a recurrent Laguerre wavelet in the consequent part, respectively. The performance of the proposed control scheme is validated for various stability, quality, and reliability factors obtained through a simulation testbed implemented in MATLAB/Simulink. The proposed scheme is compared against adaptive NeuroFuzzy, PID, and adaptive PID (aPID) control schemes using different performance parameters for a grid-connected load over 24 h. Full article
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17 pages, 1333 KB  
Article
Neuro-Fuzzy Network-Based Reduced-Order Modeling of Transonic Aileron Buzz
by Rebecca Zahn and Christian Breitsamter
Aerospace 2020, 7(11), 162; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7110162 - 13 Nov 2020
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3677
Abstract
In the present work, a reduced-order modeling (ROM) framework based on a recurrent neuro-fuzzy model (NFM) that is serial connected with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network is applied for the computation of transonic aileron buzz. The training data set for the specified [...] Read more.
In the present work, a reduced-order modeling (ROM) framework based on a recurrent neuro-fuzzy model (NFM) that is serial connected with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network is applied for the computation of transonic aileron buzz. The training data set for the specified ROM is obtained by performing forced-motion unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) simulations. Further, a Monte Carlo-based training procedure is applied in order to estimate statistical errors. In order to demonstrate the method’s fidelity, a two-dimensional aeroelastic model based on the NACA651213 airfoil is investigated at different flow conditions, while the aileron deflection and the hinge moment are considered in particular. The aileron is integrated in the wing section without a gap and is modeled as rigid. The dynamic equations of the rigid aileron rotation are coupled with the URANS-based flow model. For ROM training purposes, the aileron is excited via a forced motion and the respective aerodynamic and aeroelastic response is computed using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. A comparison with the high-fidelity reference CFD solutions shows that the essential characteristics of the nonlinear buzz phenomenon are captured by the selected ROM method. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Aerospace Sciences and Technology)
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23 pages, 5674 KB  
Article
Coordination between Demand Response Programming and Learning-Based FOPID Controller for Alleviation of Frequency Excursion of Hybrid Microgrid
by Masoud Babaei, Ahmadreza Abazari and S. M. Muyeen
Energies 2020, 13(2), 442; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13020442 - 16 Jan 2020
Cited by 29 | Viewed by 4150
Abstract
In recent years, residential rate consumptions have increased due to modern appliances which require a high level of electricity demands. Although mentioned appliances can improve the quality of consumers’ lives to a certain extent, they suffer from various shortcomings including raising the electricity [...] Read more.
In recent years, residential rate consumptions have increased due to modern appliances which require a high level of electricity demands. Although mentioned appliances can improve the quality of consumers’ lives to a certain extent, they suffer from various shortcomings including raising the electricity bill as well as serious technical issues such as lack of balance between electricity generation and load disturbances. This imbalance can generally lead to the frequency excursion which is a significant concern, especially for low-inertia microgrids with unpredictable parameters. This research proposes an intelligent combination of two approaches in order to alleviate challenges related to the frequency control mechanism. Firstly, a learning-based fractional-order proportional-integral-derivative (FOPID) controller is trained by recurrent adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference (RANFIS) in the generation side during various operational conditions and climatic changes. In the following, a decentralized demand response (DR) programming in the load side is introduced to minimize consumption rate through controllable appliances and energy storage systems (ESSs). Furthermore, parameters uncertainties and time delay, which are generally known as two main concerns of isolated microgrids, are regarded in the frequency plan of a low-inertia microgrid including renewable energy sources (RESs), and energy storage systems (ESSs). Simulation results are illustrated in three different case studies in order to compare the performance of the proposed two methods during various operational conditions. It is obvious that the frequency deviation of microgrid can be improved by taking advantage of intelligent combination of both DR program and modern control mechanism. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section F: Electrical Engineering)
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23 pages, 6705 KB  
Article
Ensemble Recurrent Neural Network Based Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Approach
by Lilin Cheng, Haixiang Zang, Tao Ding, Rong Sun, Miaomiao Wang, Zhinong Wei and Guoqiang Sun
Energies 2018, 11(8), 1958; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11081958 - 27 Jul 2018
Cited by 83 | Viewed by 6230
Abstract
Wind energy is a commonly utilized renewable energy source, due to its merits of extensive distribution and rich reserves. However, as wind speed fluctuates violently and uncertainly at all times, wind power integration may affect the security and stability of power system. In [...] Read more.
Wind energy is a commonly utilized renewable energy source, due to its merits of extensive distribution and rich reserves. However, as wind speed fluctuates violently and uncertainly at all times, wind power integration may affect the security and stability of power system. In this study, we propose an ensemble model for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. It consists of wavelet threshold denoising (WTD), recurrent neural network (RNN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Firstly, WTD smooths the wind speed series in order to better capture its variation trend. Secondly, RNNs with different architectures are trained on the denoising datasets, operating as sub-models for point wind speed forecasting. Thirdly, ANFIS is innovatively established as the top layer of the entire ensemble model to compute the final point prediction result, in order to take full advantages of a limited number of deep-learning-based sub-models. Lastly, variances are obtained from sub-models and then prediction intervals of probabilistic forecasting can be calculated, where the variances inventively consist of modeling and forecasting uncertainties. The proposed ensemble model is established and verified on less than one-hour-ahead ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting. We compare it with other soft computing models. The results indicate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model in both point and probabilistic wind speed forecasting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting)
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15 pages, 2452 KB  
Article
Estimating Sediment Discharge Using Sediment Rating Curves and Artificial Neural Networks in the Shiwen River, Taiwan
by Samkele S. Tfwala and Yu-Min Wang
Water 2016, 8(2), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/w8020053 - 5 Feb 2016
Cited by 40 | Viewed by 9402
Abstract
Sediment in river is usually transported during extreme events related to intense rainfall and high river flows. The conventional means of collecting data in such events are risky and costly compared to water discharge measurements. Hence, the lack of sediment data has prompted [...] Read more.
Sediment in river is usually transported during extreme events related to intense rainfall and high river flows. The conventional means of collecting data in such events are risky and costly compared to water discharge measurements. Hence, the lack of sediment data has prompted the use of sediment rating curves (SRC). The aim of this study is to explore the abilities of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in advancing the precision of stream flow-suspended discharge relationships during storm events in the Shiwen River, located in southern Taiwan. The ANNs used were multilayer perceptrons (MLP), the coactive neurofuzzy inference system model (CANFISM), time lagged recurrent networks (TLRN), fully recurrent neural networks (FRNN) and the radial basis function (RBF). A comparison is made between SRC and the ANNs. Hourly based water and sediment discharge during 8 storms were manually collected and used as inputs for the SRC and the ANNs. Results have shown that the ANN models were superior in reproducing hourly sediment discharge compared to SRC. The findings further suggest that MLP can provide the most accurate estimates of sediment discharge, (R2 of 0.903) compared to CANFISM, TLRN, FRNN and RBF. SRC had the lowest R2 (0.765), and resulted in underestimations of peak sediment discharge (−47%). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Watershed Sediment Process)
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