Search Results (20)

Iraq has faced escalating water scarcity over the past two decades, driven by climate change, upstream water withdrawals, and prolonged economic instability. These factors have caused deterioration in irrigation systems, inefficient water distribution, and growing social unrest. As per capita water availability falls below critical levels, Iraq is entering a period of acute water stress. This escalating water scarcity directly impacts water and food security, public health, and economic stability. This study aims to develop a general framework combining decision support systems (DSSs) with Integrated Comprehensive Water Management Strategies (ICWMSs) to support water planning, allocation, and response to ongoing water scarcity and reductions in Iraq. Implementing such a system is essential for Iraq to alleviate its continuing severe situation and adequately tackle its worsening water scarcity that has intensified over the years. This integrated approach is fundamental for enhancing planning efficiency, improving operational performance and monitoring, optimizing water allocation, and guiding informed policy decisions under scarcity and uncertainty. The current study highlights various international case studies that show that DSSs integrate real-time data, artificial intelligence, and advanced modeling to provide actionable policies for water management. Implementing such a framework is crucial for Iraq to mitigate this critical situation and effectively address the escalating water scarcity. Furthermore, Iraq’s water management system requires modifications considering present and expected future challenges. This study analyzes the inflows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from 1933 to 2022, revealing significant reductions in water flow: a 31% decrease in the Tigris and a 49.5% decline in the Euphrates by 2021. This study highlights the future 7–20% water deficit between 2020 and 2035. Furthermore, this study introduces a flexible, tool-based framework supported by a DSS with the DPSIR model (Driving Forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, and Responses) designed to address and reduce the gap between water availability and increasing demand. This approach proposes a multi-hazard risk matrix to identify and prioritize strategic risks facing Iraq’s water sector. This matrix links each hazard with appropriate DSS-based response measures and supports scenario planning under the ICWMS framework. The proposed framework integrates hydro-meteorological data analysis with hydrological simulation models and long-term investment strategies. It also emphasizes the development of institutional frameworks, the promotion of water diplomacy, and the establishment of transboundary water allocation and operational policy agreements. Efforts to enhance national security and regional stability among riparian countries complement these actions to tackle water scarcity effectively. Simultaneously, this framework offers a practical guideline for water managers to adopt the best management policies without bias or discrimination between stakeholders. By addressing the combined impacts of anthropogenic and climate change, the proposed framework aims to ensure rational water allocation, enhance resilience, and secure Iraq’s water strategies, ensuring sustainability for future generations. Full article

The rising number of disturbances caused by natural hazards, epidemics, and international conflicts seriously threatens global agriculture and food systems. In order to combat the increasing uncertainty, the Chinese government proposed a “dual circulation” strategy, which puts forward a new requirement of promoting self-sufficiency. Among various food categories, grain serves as a cornerstone for sustaining human life during public crises. Guangdong Province is one of the most economically developed and highly densely populated regions in China; therefore, it faces significant pressure to enhance food security. This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of the rate of grain self-sufficiency (RSSG) at the county levels in Guangdong Province from 2014 to 2023. The findings reveal the following: (1) rice remains the predominant grain crop, with its sown area and production consistently accounting for over 75%; (2) the RSSG is 28.14% on average, which is lower than the governmental goal of 30%; (3) the RSSG has significant regional disparities and distinct agglomeration patterns; and (4) scenario simulations indicate that grain yield improvement and grain loss reduction have the potential to promote the RSSG to 34.14%. Based on the research findings, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations: (1) prioritize farmland preservation and implement the “storing grain in the land” strategy to ensure food supply; (2) adopt advanced agricultural technologies under the “storing grain in the technology” strategy to improve grain yield; (3) reduce grain loss by strengthening disaster prevention, improving storage management, and enhancing storage efficiency; and (4) strengthen interdepartmental coordination. The integrated application of these strategies will help Guangdong Province enhance its grain self-sufficiency, ensure food security, and contribute to the achievement of national food security goals. Full article

The decrease in grain plantation areas poses a growing concern for global food security. China, with its large population, increasingly diversified food demands, and relatively small cultivated lands, has suffered deeply from this phenomenon (non-grain production, NGP) in recent years. Since 2020, the central government of China has claimed to deal with this problem by attracting agriculturalists and organizations involved in grain plantation. In this context, understanding the global NGP of the national situation is vital for policy making. Remote sensing is regarded as the most effective and accurate method for this purpose, but existing studies have mainly focused on algorithms operating at the local scale or exploring grain-producing capability from the perspective of agricultural space. As such, the characterization of NGP on a national scale remains deficient. In this study, we tried to bridge the gap through spatio-analysis with a newly published nationwide crop pattern and land use geo-datasets; the quantitative, spatial, and structural features, as well as the utilization of NGP cropland in the year 2019, were observed. The results showed that about 60% of the cropland was used for non-grain plantation. About 15% of the NGP parcels were cultivated with grains at least three times in the past 4 years, and of these 60% and 40% were parcels with double- or single-season plantation, respectively, which could result in a 16–22% increase in the grain-sown area compared with 2019. Forest and grassland were the dominant non-cropping categories which NGP cropland transferred into, indicating more time and economic cost for regaining grains. NGP parcels also presented spatio-heterogeneity regarding cropping intensity and transformation. Parcels with double-season plantation mostly emerged in northern, central, and southern provinces, while those with single-season plantation were always located in northeastern and western provinces. The parcels that were transferred into forest or grassland mainly appeared in southern and Inner Mongolia, respectively, while the parcels in northern and central areas mostly continued cropping. According to these results, we propose remediation policies focusing on raising the cropping intensity of cultivated land in central and northern provinces due to their advantages of water, heat, terrain, and land use change features. Future work is warranted based on this study’s deficiencies and uncertainties. As a forerunner, this study provides a holistic observation of the NGP phenomenon in mainland China on a national scale, and the findings can inform improvements in land use policies concerning grain production and food security in China. Full article

Achieving the ambitious economic, social, and environmental goals of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires strategic digital governance improvements that promote long-term and equitable participation in emerging technologies. However, research lacks clear confirmation regarding how governments’ varied policy investments in spheres, like infrastructure expansion, skills programming, and cybersecurity, specifically contribute to holistic sustainable development progress monitored across international benchmarks. Addressing persistent uncertainties, this study statistically modeled if national expenditures directed toward information and communications technology (ICT) access, digital literacy initiatives, and online privacy protections predict higher performances meeting SDGs longitudinally. Analyzing recent country-level data across 27 European nations, structural equation modeling uncovered positive relationships between all three complementary digital governance priority areas and national SDG Index achievement over time. Beyond theoretically validating the instrumental role of availability, capabilities, and security advancements for balanced digitization, findings offer policymakers vital empirical guidance to amplify social returns on ICT investments. The results also demonstrate practical tools to track implementation impacts amidst unrelenting technological shifts. Ultimately, equitably mainstreaming technologies’ vast problem-solving potential necessitates evidence-based digital governance carefully expanding equitable participation. This work aims to equip leaders to purposefully craft enabling, empowering ICT policy ecosystems advancing urgent development aims. Full article

Soybeans play a crucial role in global food security and international agricultural trade. As the world’s largest consumer and trader of soybeans, China faces significant external dependence on supply and concentration of import sources. In light of increasing uncertainties in the international political and economic landscape, risks within China’s soybean supply chain have become increasingly prominent, highlighting the need to explore the global soybean supply potential and optimize import strategies. In response to national food security strategic requirements and anticipated changes in global production capacity, the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model and the multi-objective nonlinear programming model are used in this paper to estimate the potential of soybean yield increase globally. From dual perspectives of risk minimization and cost minimization, diversified soybean import schemes for China are proposed across three scopes: neighboring countries, countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and globally. The results indicate that in the long term, the center of gravity for global soybean production capacity remains in the Americas; these areas, along with Europe and Africa, are key regions for China to expand its soybean import sources in the future. If all countries’ soybean production potentials are fully explored, China can achieve sufficient soybean supply by relying on neighboring countries as well as those countries participating in the BRI. Specifically, it is estimated that during the 2020s (2011–2040), the potential soybean production in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina could reach more than 290 million tons, 140 million tons, and 130 million tons, respectively, under scenarios of both yield increase and cultivated land expansion. Neighboring countries such as India and Russia also show significant potential, with India’s production potentially increasing by 42.8 million tons and Russia’s by 10.4 million tons. The results suggest that China can achieve a more balanced and secure import strategy by leveraging the production capabilities of countries in the Americas, Europe, and Africa while also fostering closer economic and agricultural cooperation with neighboring nations and BRI countries. Based on these findings, policy recommendations aimed at stabilizing and ensuring China’s soybean supply are discussed. Full article

This research explores the effects of significant global economic shocks, such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, on GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. Employing a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model, the analysis highlights the strong momentum effect of lagged GDP growth, where past performance plays a critical role in shaping current economic outcomes. The findings also reveal that natural resources continue to positively influence short-term growth, but with diminishing returns over time, supporting the resource curse hypothesis and underscoring the need for broader structural reforms to ensure long-term sustainability. In addition, the results show that external investments flowing into the country, trade balance, and inflation emerge as key drivers of economic growth. While moderate inflation is positively associated with economic expansion, unemployment exerts a significant negative effect on GDP growth, particularly in models that account for country-specific characteristics. This emphasizes the need for labor market reforms to improve employment rates and support sustainable development. The role of gross capital formation, particularly in both the dynamic GMM and random effects models, further underscores the importance of strategic domestic investment, especially during periods of global disruption. These findings emphasize the critical need for economic diversification in the GCC. Policymakers should focus on attracting foreign investment, managing inflation, enhancing human capital, and boosting domestic investment to mitigate the adverse effects of the resource curse and secure sustainability. While market capitalization and oil rents may stimulate short-term growth, their long-term sustainability remains uncertain without greater diversification. Both external and domestic investments emerge as critical drivers of long-term growth, while persistent challenges such as inflation and unemployment continue to pose risks to economic stability. The study highlights the need to reduce reliance on oil and leverage human capital to build more resilient economies capable of adapting to future challenges. By offering dynamic, empirical insights into the balance between resource reliance and sustainable growth, this research adds valuable insights to the policy discussion on economic diversification in the GCC. Policymakers are urged to prioritize FDI, inflation management, domestic capital formation, and human capital development to mitigate vulnerabilities and ensure sustainable economic growth in the face of ongoing global uncertainties. Full article

Monitoring and estimating spatially resolved changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are necessary for supporting national and international policies aimed at assisting land degradation neutrality and climate change mitigation, improving soil fertility and food production, maintaining water quality, and enhancing renewable energy and ecosystem services. In this work, we report on the development and application of a data-driven, quantile regression machine learning model to estimate and predict annual SOC stocks at plow depth under the variability of climate. The model enables the analysis of SOC content levels and respective probabilities of their occurrence as a function of exogenous parameters such as monthly temperature and precipitation and endogenous, decision-dependent parameters, which can be altered by land use practices. The estimated quantiles and their trends indicate the uncertainty ranges and the respective likelihoods of plausible SOC content. The model can be used as a reduced-form scenario generator of stochastic SOC scenarios. It can be integrated as a submodel in Integrated Assessment models with detailed land use sectors such as GLOBIOM to analyze costs and find optimal land management practices to sequester SOC and fulfill food–water–energy–-environmental NEXUS security goals. Full article

U.S. trade protectionism has frequently risen recently, and trade policy fluctuations have become increasingly significant. In this context, examining the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade is of great significance to China’s response to changes in the international trade situation, guaranteeing national food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development. From the statistical data, the U.S. trade policy uncertainty and China’s grain imports primarily show a reverse trend, and China’s grain exports show a positive trend. To further explore the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade, this study selects the monthly data from July 2003 to December 2022. It conducts impulse response analysis by constructing a vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility. It is found that the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade has prominent time-varying characteristics and point-in-time effects, and the impact on different kinds of grain is heterogeneous. In this regard, China needs to clarify the nature of the trade dispute between China and the United States, reasonably utilize the multilateral coordination mechanism of the WTO, coordinate the international and domestic markets, adjust the short board of grain trade, and safeguard the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. Full article

Efforts for carbon emission reduction have been identified as a major climate change mitigation target in the Paris Agreement. The 26th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change highlighted the worldwide effort for cleaner and greener mining, urging the mineral industry to embrace greener operational emissions reduction technologies and strategies. At the Paris Conference, Ghana pledged to reduce CO₂ emissions by 15% and increase its renewable energy share to 10% of the national energy mix. Ghana’s efforts to implement a low-carbon policy were, however, hampered for several reasons. Ghana is Africa’s leading and the world’s seventh largest gold producer. Mining has contributed significantly to foreign currency acquisition and government revenue. The gold mining sector contributes approximately 95% of Ghana’s total mineral revenue. Considering these situations, the fundamental question is how Ghana’s mining industry can contribute to CO₂ emission reduction efforts. This paper investigates barriers to low-carbon emission policy implementation among mining companies in Ghana. We adopted 5-point Likert scale statement questions. The questionnaire survey was conducted among Ghana’s four large-scale gold mining companies. As the sample number of available companies is limited, we used a descriptive analysis to assess the responses. The results show that the companies expressed widely different ways to respond to the issues of cost, a government policy for carbon emission reduction, and the acquisition of low-carbon technologies. Those companies that are relatively less prepared for this endeavor emphasized the uncertainties of securing sufficient energy in case of using low-carbon technologies. They also expressed a need for more trained workers to handle low-carbon technologies. We found that a major challenge among companies was the expected cost involved in implementing a low-carbon emission policy. There was a communication gap with the relevant government ministry about low-carbon mining options where the government should be able to facilitate the involvement of low-carbon technology providers, such as solar Photovoltaics installation. Full article

Global food production is facing increasing uncertainties under climate change and the coronavirus pandemic, provoking challenges and severe concerns to national food security. The role of global agricultural trade in bridging the imbalance between food supply and demand has come to the fore. However, the impact of multifaceted and dynamic factors, such as trade policies, national relations, and epidemics, on the stability of the agricultural trade network (ATN) needs to be better addressed. Quantitatively, this study estimated grouping characteristics and network stability by analyzing the changing global ATN from 1986 to 2018. We found that the evolution of global agricultural trade communities has gone through four stages: the dominance of the US–Asian community, the rise of the European–African community, the formation of tri-pillar communities, and the development of a multipolar community with a more complex structure. Despite witnessing a progressive increase in the nodal stability of the global ATN during the decades, particular gaps can still be found in stability across countries. Specifically, the European community achieved stability of 0.49 and its trade relations were effectively secured. Meanwhile, the remaining leading communities’ stability shows a stable and upward trend, albeit with more significant challenges in trade relations among some of them. Therefore, how to guarantee the stability of trade relations and strengthen the global ATN to resist external shocks has become an essential question to safeguard global food security. Full article

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that can cause extreme acute respiratory syndrome has posed a catastrophic threat to public health. The vaccines had indeed restored optimism and, after more than two years of battling the pandemic, there is renewed hope for the transition to endemicity. At the start of vaccination efforts, when supply shortages of vaccines were inevitable, every nation determined the high-risk population groups to be given priority for the COVID-19 vaccines. In this paper, the characteristics of the initial COVID-19 vaccine recipients in Malaysia are described. In line with the policies of many other countries, Malaysia firstly inoculated frontline healthcare workers, and subsequently the list of front liners grew to include defense and security personnel and those involved in the provision of essential services. People with disabilities or those with special needs and several underlying medical conditions that increased their risk of developing severe COVID-related illnesses were included in the priority categories. These included patients with severe lung disease, chronic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, neurological disease, diabetes mellitus and obesity in adults, splenic dysfunction, and severe mental illness. With little information and under circumstances of great uncertainty, the Health Ministry of a middle-income country had developed a vaccination priority-list based on the disease’s epidemiology and clinical data, vaccine type, operational considerations, and risk evaluation. Early evidence was presented and suggested that the full vaccination with any of the three predominant vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) in the country had been highly effective in preventing COVID-19 infections, COVID-19-related ICU admissions, and death. As many SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VoC), such as the Omicron BA.2/4/5, are emerging, future vaccination strategies may necessitate the need to change the immunogen of the vaccine, as well as considerations for when to give high-risk groups booster injections. These considerations are valuable for future planning by policymakers and healthcare providers to make vaccination policy and decisions, especially for the inclusion of the COVID-19 vaccines into national immunization programs. Full article

This study investigates the spillover effects among partisan conflict, national security policy uncertainty and tourism (i.e., tourist arrivals, exports, and stock) in the U.S. by using the TVP-VAR-based connectedness measures. Specifically, we discuss the association strength, spillover direction and dynamic linkages among the three under this framework. The results show that partisan conflict and national security policy uncertainty are net transmitters of spillovers to tourism, and those effects are more potent for inbound tourism demand than tourism stock performance. Moreover, the magnitude of spillovers among the three is time-varying and increases significantly in times of crisis, especially during the 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results have important implications for tourism managers to develop sustainable development strategies to buffer or adapt to the uncertainty impact. Full article

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the pandemic and then fell about half-way back to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. Second, and in contrast, the 1-month VIX, a Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply in reaction to the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid-2021. Third, Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes highlight the changing sources of uncertainty—from healthcare and fiscal policy uncertainty in spring 2020 to elevated uncertainty around monetary policy and national security as of May 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but shifted rapidly to the upside from fall 2020 onwards. Perceived upside uncertainty remains highly elevated as of early 2022. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 and 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so skewed to the upside. Full article

A concern for ensuring energy security is particularly important in the 2020s, a decade significantly marked by economic and political uncertainty: the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and inflation turning into stagflation in many markets. Additionally, the national and international climate policy promoting the acquisition of energy from non-renewable sources is only a part of the problem that forces a revision of the direction and degree of diversification of energy sources. States, bearing in mind the inevitability of change, in order to maintain energy security, should not only accurately read these phenomena but also effectively prevent them. One of the available solutions is to build a multi-energy concern to ensure energy independence through diversified production and distribution of electricity and non-renewable fuels. To this end, a large international entity centred around the PKN Orlen group has existed in Poland for several years. The construction of this holding is based on M&A transactions, as effective mechanisms for long-term management, and focused around complementary, in terms of economic activity, market entities—Energa, Lotos and PGNiG. This article focuses on the assessment of the phenomenon of capital concentration in M&A transactions by PKN Orlen, with particular emphasis on the changes in the shaping of energy security in the near future and also on the basis of the directions resulting from government guidelines and policies. Full article

The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on China’s dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961–2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China’s vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China’s future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply–demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies. Full article