Search Results (112)

Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry (Latitude 30.1 N) in the Big Bend area of Florida with a central pressure of 939 hPa. It moved northwards creating devastating damage and loss of life; however, the greatest damage and number of fatalities occurred well to the north around the City of Ashville (Latitude 35.6 N) where extreme rainfall fell and some of the strongest wind gusts were reported. This paper describes the change in the hurricane’s structure as it tracked northwards, how it gathered tropical moisture from the Atlantic and a turning wind profile between the 850 hPa and 500 hPa elevations, which led to such extreme rainfall. This turning wind profile is shown to be associated with extreme rainfall and loss of life from drowning and landslides around the globe. The area around Ashville suffered 157 fatalities, which is a considerable proportion of the 250 fatalities so far recorded in the whole United Stares from Helene. This is of extreme concern and should be investigated in detail as the public expect the greatest impact from hurricanes to be confined to coastal areas near the landfall site. It is another example of increased death tolls from tropical cyclones moving inland and generating heavy rainfall. As the global population increases and inland centres become more urbanised, run off from such rainfall events increases, which causes greater devastation. Full article

Atlantic White Cedar (Chamaecyparis thyoides) (AWC) anchors a globally threatened ecosystem that is being impacted by climate change, as these trees are vulnerable to hurricane events, sea-level rises, and increasing salinity at the forest–marsh ecotone. In this study, we determined the current amount and distribution of AWC in an area that is experiencing sea-level rises that are higher than the global average rate. We used a combination of a field investigation and aerial photo interpretation to identify known locations of AWC, then integrated Sentinel-1 and 2A satellite data with abiotic variables into a species distribution model. We developed a spectral signature of AWC to aid in our understanding of phenology differences from nearby species groups. The selected model had an out-of-bag error of 7.2%, and 8 of the 11 variables retained in the final model were derived from remotely sensed data, highlighting the importance of including temporal data to exploit divergent phenology. Model predictions were strong in live AWC stands and, accurately, did not predict live AWC in stands that experienced high levels of mortality after Hurricane Sandy. The model presented in this study provides high utility for AWC management and tracking mortality dynamics within stands after disturbances such as hurricanes. Full article

Previous research has shown that people use a benchmark hurricane as part of their preparation and evacuation decision-making process. While hurricanes are a common occurrence along the Gulf Coast, research on personal memories of past storms is lacking. Particularly, how well do people remember the track and geophysical hazards (wind speed, storm surge, and total rainfall) of past storms? The accurate or inaccurate recollection and perception of previous storm details can influence personal responses to future storms, such as the decision to evacuate or take other life-saving actions. Survey responses of residents in Alabama and Mississippi were studied to determine if people were accurately able to recall a notable storm’s name when seeing an image of the storm’s track. Those who were able to identify the storm by its track were also asked if they could remember the storm’s maximum reported rainfall, maximum sustained winds, and storm surge at landfall. Results showed that there were statistically significant differences between the levels of accurate recall for different storms, with Hurricanes Katrina and Michael having the most correct responses. Regardless of the storm, most people struggled to remember geophysical hazards. The results of this study are important as they can inform broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers on forecast elements of the storm to better emphasize in future communication in comparison to the actual values from historical benchmark storms. Full article

The insurance industry has used parametric solutions to transfer catastrophe risks since the 1990s. Instead of relying on a lengthy process to assess a claim, these products pay the insured a pre-agreed amount if the physical characteristics of the event fulfill pre-defined conditions. Cat-in-a-box or cat-in-a-circle triggers, commonly used tools for tropical cyclone risk transfer, provide a payout to the insured if the track of a hurricane crosses the perimeter of a geographic area defined by a polygon or a circle with a certain intensity. Cat-in-a-grid solutions are novel and more sophisticated. They rely on a set of multiple cat-in-a-box triggers arranged on an orthogonal grid. The consideration of multiple geographic domains instead of a single box or circle is helpful to reduce basis risk, i.e., the difference between the parametric loss estimate and the target loss. In the case study for Miami presented here, for instance, a cat-in-a-grid solution showed 18.5% less basis risk than a typical cat-in-a-box alternative. To organize the different types of triggers within a common framework, we classify the existing alternatives based on whether they use a single geographic domain (like a box or a circle) or multiple domains (like a grid). We discuss their advantages and disadvantages and describe the process required to calibrate any one solution with the help of a catastrophe-risk model. We focus, in particular, on the analysis and construction of cat-in-a-grid triggers, the alternative that we believe offers the greatest potential for global standardization and adoption. Full article

Accurate estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are important for improving forecasts as well as studying ocean dynamics during such extreme events. Since most cyclone life occurs over the open ocean, remote sensing techniques play an important role in obtaining the necessary data. The possibility of using the configuration of spiral signatures of mature tropical cyclones (TCs) observed in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images to estimate the maximum wind speed of a TC is considered. This study assessed the intensity of 14 TCs in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans using radar images obtained by the Radarsat Hurricane Application Project. TC intensity was estimated using the hyperbolic-logarithmic approximation of TC spiral signatures (HLS approximation). Additionally, the edges of the spiral signatures were partially fitted using a logarithmic spiral to improve the reliability of the HLS approximation. For the first time, a physical model of changing the crossing angle of the logarithmic portion of the edges was proposed and tested on SAR images of the TC. HLS maximum wind speed estimates were compared with Best Track estimates. The results showed the closeness of both estimates with a correlation of 0.95 and a standard deviation of 2.9 m s⁻¹. The results indicate the possibility of using the HLS approximation to estimate the intensity of mature TCs from SAR data. Full article

Morphological features of the Mediterranean Sea basin have recently been precursors to a significant increase in the formation of extreme events, in relation to climate change effects. It happens very frequently that rotating air masses and the formation of mesoscale vortices can evolve into events with characteristics similar to large-scale tropical cyclones. Generally, they are less intense, with smaller size and duration; thus, they are called Medicanes, a short name for Mediterranean hurricanes, or tropical-like cyclones (TLCs). In this paper, we propose a new perspective for the study and analysis of cyclonic events, starting with data and images acquired from satellites and focusing on the diagnostics of the evolution of atmospheric parameters for these events. More precisely, satellite remote sensing techniques are employed to elaborate on different high spatial-resolution satellite images of the events at a given sensing time. Two case studies are examined, taking into account their development into Medicane stages: Ianos, which intensified in the Ionian Sea and reached the coast of Greece between 14 and 21 September 2020, and Apollo, which impacted Mediterranean latitudes with a long tracking from 24 October to 2 November 2021. For these events, 20 images were acquired from two different satellite sensors, onboard two low-Earth orbit (LEO) platforms, by deeply exploiting their thermal infrared (TIR) spectral channels. A useful extraction of significant physical information was carried out from every image, highlighting several atmospheric quantities, including temperature and altitude layers from the top of the cloud, vertical temperature gradient, atmospheric pressure field, and deep convection cloud. The diagnostics of the two events were investigated through the spatial scale capabilities of the instruments and the spatiotemporal evolution of the cyclones, including the comparison between satellite data and recording data from the BOLAM forecasting model. In addition, 384 images were extracted from the geostationary (GEO) satellite platform for the investigation of the events’ one-day structure intensification, by implementing time as the third dimension. Full article

This study presents the first research that assimilates the ground-based NEXRAD observations-derived two-dimensional (2D), azimuthally averaged radar radial velocity and reflectivity within 60 km of radius from the hurricane center to examine their influence on the analysis and prediction of a hurricane near and after its landfall. The mesoscale community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation system are utilized to conduct data assimilation experiments for Hurricane Charley (2004). Results show that assimilation of the radar inner-core data leads to better forecasts of hurricane tracks, intensity, and precipitation. The improved forecast outcomes imply that the changes in dynamical, thermal, and moisture structures from data assimilations made more reasonable conditions for the hurricane development near and after its landfall. Overall results indicate that the assimilation of the radar-derived 2D inner-core structure could be a feasible way to utilize the radar data for improved hurricane prediction. Full article

Climate change and other anthropogenic factors have caused a significant decline in seagrass cover globally. Identifying the specific causes of this decline is paramount if they are to be addressed. Consequently, we identified the causes of long-term change in seagrass/submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) percentage cover and extent in a marine protected area on Jamaica’s southern coast. Two random forest regression (RFr) models were built using 2013 hydroacoustic survey SAV percentage cover data (dependent variable), and auxiliary and 2013 Landsat 7 and 8 reflectance data as the predictors. These were used to generate 24 SAV percentage cover and benthic feature maps (SAV present, absent, and coral reef) for the period 1984–2021 (37 years) from Landsat satellite series reflectance data. These maps and rainfall data were used to determine if SAV extent/area (km²) and average percentage cover and annual rainfall changed significantly over time and to evaluate the influence of rainfall. Additionally, rainfall impact on the overall spatial patterns of SAV loss, gain, and percentage cover change was assessed. Finally, the most important spatial pattern predictors of SAV loss, gain, and percentage cover change during 23 successive 1-to-4-year periods were identified. Predictors included rainfall proxies (distance and direction from river mouth), benthic topography, depth, and hurricane exposure (a measure of hurricane disturbance). SAV area/extent was largely stable, with >70% mean percentage cover for multiple years. However, Hurricane Ivan (in 2004) caused a significant decline in SAV area/extent (by 1.62 km², or 13%) during 2002–2006, and a second hurricane (Dean) in 2007 delayed recovery until 2015. Additionally, rainfall declined significantly by >1000 mm since 1901, and mean monthly rainfall positively influenced SAV percentage cover change and had a positive overall effect on the spatial pattern of SAV cover percentage change (across the entire bay) and gain (close to the mouth of a river). The most important spatial pattern predictors were the two rainfall proxies (areas closer to the river mouth were more likely to experience SAV loss and gain) and depth, with shallow areas generally having a higher probability of SAV loss and gain. Three hurricanes had significant but different impacts depending on their distance from the southern coastline. Specifically, a hurricane that made landfall in 1988 (Gilbert), resulted in higher SAV percentage cover loss in 1987–1988. Benthic locations with a northwestern/northern facing aspect (the predominant direction of Ivan’s leading edge wind bands) experienced higher SAV losses during 2002–2006. Additionally, exposure to Ivan explained percentage cover loss during 2006–2008 and average exposure to (the cumulative impact of) Ivan and Dean (both with tracks close to the southern coastline) explained SAV loss during 2013–2015. Therefore, despite historic lows in annual rainfall, overall, higher rainfall was beneficial, multiple hurricanes impacted the site, and despite two hurricanes in three years, SAV recovered within a decade. Hurricanes and a further reduction in rainfall may pose a serious threat to SAV persistence in the future. Full article

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) prediction still remains a big international challenge in numerical weather prediction. Hurricane Matthew (2016) underwent extreme and non-classic RI, intensifying from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5 hurricane within 24 h under a strong vertical shear environment. However, most models failed to capture this RI, and limited or no inner core, and outflow observations were assimilated in the NWS operational HWRF Model before the onset of RI for Matthew (2016). The goals of the study are to (1) explore the best way to assimilate the High-Density Observations (HDOB, including FL and SFMR) and AMV data; (2) study the impact of assimilating these observations on the analysis of both the inner-core and outflow structures; and (3) examine the impact of assimilating these data on the prediction of RI for Matthew. The main results are as follows: (1) With proper pre-processing of the HDOB observations and by using a 4DEnVar method, the inner-core structure analysis was improved. And the RI prediction is more consistent with the best track without spin-down for the first 24 h. Assimilating CIMMS AMV observations on top of the HDOB observations further improves both the track and intensity forecasts. Specifically, both the magnitude and timing of the peak intensity are further improved. (2) Diagnostics are conducted to understand how the assimilation of these different types of observations impacts RI prediction. Without assimilating HODB and AMV data, baseline experimentover-predict the intensification rate during the first 18 h, but under-predict RI after 18 h. However, the assimilation of FL and SFMR and CIMMS AMV correctly weakens the upper-level outflow and improves the shear-relative structure of the inner-core vortex, such as reducing the low-level moisture in the downshear left quadrant. The deep convection on the downshear side is weaker than baseline for the first 18 h but keeps enhancing, later moving cyclonically to the USL quadrant, and then causes more subsidence warming, maximizing in the USL quadrant and the maximum wind increases faster. Moreover, the rapid intensification rate is much more consistent with the best track and the forecast skill of RI is improved. Therefore, 4DEnVar assimilation with proper pre-processing of the high-density observations can indeed correct the shear-relative moisture and structural distributions of both the inner core and environment for TCs imbedded in the stronger shear, which is important for shear-TC RI prediction. Full article

Forecasting extreme precipitation is one of the basic actions of warning systems in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). With thousands of economic losses and severe damage caused by floods in urban areas, hydrometeorological monitoring is a priority in most countries in the LAC region. The monitoring of convective precipitation, cold fronts, and hurricane tracks are the most demanded technological developments for early warning systems in the region. However, predicting and forecasting the onset time of extreme precipitation is a subject of life-saving scientific research. Developed in 2019, the CRHUDA (Crossing HUmidity, Dew point, and Atmospheric pressure) model provides insight into the onset of precipitation from the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. With access to a historical database of more than 600 storms, the CRHUDA model provides a prediction with a precision of six to eight hours in advance of storm onset. However, the calibration is complex given the addition of ARMA(p,q)-type models for real-time forecasting. This paper presents the calibration of the joint CRHUDA+ARMA(p,q) model. It is concluded that CRHUDA is significantly more suitable and relevant for the forecast of precipitation and a possible future development for an early warning system (EWS). Full article

Climate change has led to a variety of disasters that have caused damage to infrastructure and the economy with societal impacts to human living. Understanding people’s emotions and stressors during disaster times will enable preparation strategies for mitigating further consequences. In this paper, we mine emotions and stressors encountered by people and shared on Twitter during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 as a showcase. In this work, we acquired a dataset of tweets from Twitter on Hurricane Harvey from 20 August 2017 to 30 August 2017. The dataset consists of around 400,000 tweets and is available on Kaggle. Next, a BERT-based model is employed to predict emotions associated with tweets posted by users. Then, natural language processing (NLP) techniques are utilized on negative-emotion tweets to explore the trends and prevalence of the topics discussed during the disaster event. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling, we identified themes, enabling us to manually extract stressors termed as climate-change-related stressors. Results show that 20 climate-change-related stressors were extracted and that emotions peaked during the deadliest phase of the disaster. This indicates that tracking emotions may be a useful approach for studying environmentally determined well-being outcomes in light of understanding climate change impacts. Full article

This paper selects the case of the Atlantic hurricane “Michael” in 2018 to evaluate the accuracy of the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature profile during the hurricane and its effect on forecasting. Based on the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, the assimilation of GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile products was achieved by using three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and the ensemble transform Kalman filter/three-dimensional variational (ETKF/3DVAR) hybrid system (Hybrid) systems. And the impact of geostationary satellite GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile data assimilation on a hurricane forecast is evaluated. The results show that, during the hurricane, the root mean square errors of the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature profile are all within 2 k at the height of 200–1000 hPa, and the quality of the data is generally good. Assimilating the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile data can indeed effectively improve the analysis increment and improve the prediction results. The assimilation increment obtained by the hybrid system has obvious “flow-dependent” characteristics, which can reasonably improve the initial field of the model. Its temperature increment has an obvious spiral structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the hurricane, and the adjustment of the wind field and geopotential height field is also more beneficial to the development of the hurricane. It has a positive impact on the forecast of track, intensity, and precipitation, and the hybrid system is improved more obviously. In addition, from the RMSE of the analysis field and the forecast field relative to the observation data of different elements, the hybrid system is superior to the 3DVar system. Full article

Properties in the United States face increasing exposure to tropical storm-level winds due to climate change. Driving this increasing risk are severe hurricanes that are more likely to occur when hurricanes form in the future and the northward shift of Atlantic-formed hurricanes, increasing the estimated exposure of buildings and infrastructure to damaging winds. The wind model presented here combines open data and science by utilizing high-resolution topography, computer-modeled hurricane tracks, and property data to create hyper-local tropical cyclone wind exposure information for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from current time to 2053 under RCP 4.5. This allows for a detailed evaluation of probable wind speeds by several return periods, probabilities of cyclonic thresholds being reached or surpassed, and a comparison of this cyclone-level wind exposure between the current year and 30 years into the future under climatic changes. The results of this research reveal extensive exposure along the Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic Coasts, with significant growing exposure in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the country. Full article

To assess the performance and scalability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Short-Range Weather (SRW) application, case studies are chosen to cover a wide variety of forecast applications. Here, model forecasts of Hurricane Barry (July 2019) are examined and analyzed. Several versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) physics suites are run in the UFS-SRW at grid spacings of 25 km, 13 km, and 3 km. All model configurations produce significant track errors of up to 350 km at landfall. The track errors are investigated, and several commonalities are seen between model configurations. A westerly bias in the environmental steering flow surrounding the tropical cyclone (TC) is seen across forecasts, and this bias is coincident with a warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias and overactive convection on the eastern side of the forecasted TC. Positive feedback between the surface winds, latent heating, moisture, convection, and TC intensification is initiated by this SST bias. The asymmetric divergent flow induced by the excess convection results in all model TC tracks being diverted to the east as compared to the track derived from reanalysis. The large differences between runs using the same physics packages at different grid spacing suggest a deficiency in the scalability of these packages with respect to hurricane forecasting in vertical wind shear. Full article

This study investigates the use of small unoccupied aerial systems (sUAS) as a new remote sensing tool to identify and track the spatial distribution of wrack on coastal tidal marsh systems. We used sUAS to map the wrack movement in a Spartina alterniflora-dominated salt marsh monthly for one year including before and after Hurricane Isaias that brought strong winds, rain, and storm surge to the area of interest in August 2020. Flight parameters for each data collection mission were held constant including collection only during low tide. Wrack was visually identified and digitized in a GIS using every mission orthomosaic created from the mission images. The digitized polygons were visualized using a raster data model and a combination of all of the digitized wrack polygons. Results indicate that wrack mats deposited before and as a result of a hurricane event remained for approximately three months. Furthermore, 55% of all wrack detritus was closer than 10 m to river or stream water bodies, 64% were within 15 m, and 71% were within 20 m, indicating the spatial dependence of wrack location in a marsh system on water and water movement. However, following the passing of Isaias, the percentage of wrack closer than 10 m to a river or creek decreased to a low of 44%, which was not seen again during the year-long study. This study highlights the on-demand image collection of a sUAS for providing new insights into how quickly wrack distribution and vegetation can change over a short time. Full article