Search Results (68)

This study assesses export concentration risk in four Central Asian economies (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) by examining trade specialization patterns in 31 mineral, chemical, textile, and metallurgical product groups over 2017–2024. Using a multi-index framework based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Relative Trade Advantage (RTA), and the Lafay Index (LI), the paper distinguishes structurally embedded competitive advantages from export signals that are weak, import-dependent, or potentially transient. The revised analysis adds explicit data consistency checks, a clarified classification rule, and robustness tests based on sign concordance, majority-index rules, and RSCA-only thresholds. The results show that Central Asia’s risk profile is highly persistent but heterogeneous: Tajikistan is exposed to extreme single-commodity risk in aluminium and cotton-related segments; Kazakhstan remains vulnerable to mineral-fuel concentration and energy-price volatility; Uzbekistan has broader but still labour-intensive textile specialization; and Kyrgyzstan shows ambiguous competitiveness that may partly reflect re-export and transit-related trade. Fully competitive product groups are confined mainly to resource- and labour-intensive activities, while chemicals and technologically complex manufacturing remain non-competitive across the region. The findings support risk-differentiated policy responses, including commodity-price hedging, counter-cyclical stabilization tools, downstream processing, textile upgrading, and regional value-chain development. Full article

The Mediterranean limpet (Patella caerulea, Linnaeus, 1758) is a native species in Türkiye that is not yet a major commercial species but has potential for future commercialisation, particularly given the country’s substantial mollusc export market. This study aimed to evaluate seasonal and station-level variation in trace-element burdens in P. caerulea collected from the Sinop inner harbour (southern Black Sea coast, Türkiye) and to assess the associated trace-element–related non-carcinogenic health risks under a precautionary consumption scenario. Spatial and seasonal variations in the concentrations of 10 trace elements (Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Hg, and total As) were analysed in specimens collected seasonally from autumn 2022 to summer 2023. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance revealed that season was the primary factor influencing trace element concentration variability, accounting for 76.9% of the total variance, followed by station (11.2%) and the season × station interaction (7.2%). All elements varied significantly among seasons (Kruskal–Wallis, p < 0.001), with maxima in autumn and minima in winter. Spatial differences were significant only for Mn, Co, Pb, Zn, and Hg, indicating localised sources. A human health risk assessment was performed for 6-year-old children, 12-year-old children, and adults. Total target hazard quotient (TTHQ) values were <1 across all groups; however, Cd was the dominant contributor, with the highest value observed in children (max TTHQ = 0.94). TTHQ followed the seasonal contamination pattern, peaking in autumn. Even under the high-consumption scenario, TTHQ for P. caerulea from the Sinop inner harbour remained below the non-carcinogenic risk threshold. The strong seasonal signal supports its use in locally focused biomonitoring, while the health-risk assessment should be limited to the analysed trace elements and associated non-carcinogenic effects. Full article

Vietnam’s exports expanded dramatically from $14.5 billion in 2000 to $405 billion in 2024, elevating the country to the world’s 22nd largest exporter despite persistent global shocks. This paper introduces the application of the Causal Machine Learning Approach to Resilience Estimation (CLARE) to industry-level trade analysis, utilizing a comprehensive panel of 97 HS2 sectors from 2000 to 2024 (2425 observations) drawn from UN COMTRADE and WITS databases. We implement Double Machine Learning to estimate causal effects of the Global Financial Crisis (2008–2009) and COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) on export growth. Results reveal stark industry disparities: electrical machinery (HS85) exhibits exceptional resilience, fueled by 72% high-technology content and low product concentration, while knitted apparel (HS61) proves highly vulnerable. Fixed effect regressions substantiate core hypotheses: a 10-percentage-point increase in high-tech share elevates the resilience index by 0.031 points (approximately 4.1% relative to the sample mean); a one-standard-deviation reduction in product HHI (0.14 units) yields a 0.026-point gain (3.6% relative); and each additional FTA contributes 0.047 points (approximately 6.2% relative), with all estimates significant at conventional levels. Robustness encompassing alternative learners, detrended outcomes, and synthetic controls upholds findings. Policy recommendations center on accelerating high-tech global value chain integration—targeting semiconductors and electric vehicles—while optimizing CPTPP and EVFTA utilization (currently 35%) and mitigating US–China market concentration (45% of exports). These insights chart pathways for Vietnam’s Vision 2045 high-income ambition amid intensifying geopolitical and climate risks, providing a replicable framework for other export-reliant emerging economies. Full article

Background: This study examines long-term trends in intra-EU trade among the Visegrad Group (V4) countries from 2004 to 2023, focusing on changes in export specialisation and comparative advantages in the context of trade resilience and sustainability. Methods: Trade performance is analysed at both the aggregate level and across SITC product groups, using Eurostat data. The analysis applies export and import dynamics, trade balance, export–import coverage ratio, trade balance index, and the symmetric revealed comparative advantage index. Results: The findings show significant heterogeneity in specialisation and competitiveness across the V4 countries. Poland reveals competitive advantages and trade stability in agri-food products. After European Union (EU) accession, comparative advantages and export specialisation emerged mainly in manufacturing and selected medium- and high-processed goods (SITC6–8), especially in Czechia and Hungary, and increasingly in Poland. Poland and Czechia shifted most clearly towards higher value-added products, Hungary followed a mixed pattern, while Slovakia remained narrowly focused on the automotive sector. Export competitiveness is closely linked to the business cycle, with upturns strengthening advantages and downturns causing only temporary weakening. Conclusions: The V4 intra-EU trade exhibits structural resilience, as key competitive positions persist and recover after economic shocks. Only Slovakia’s highly concentrated specialisation may entail risks for sustainable growth. Full article

Unpolluted water, both freshwater and saltwater, is essential for achieving several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDGs 6, 3, 2, 14, and 15. This study maps emerging water-quality monitoring technologies at intermediate technological readiness levels (TRLs 4–5) and their potential patent markets (TRL 9). A total of 40,469 patent families were retrieved from the Espacenet worldwide database using IPC G01N33/18 and used to analyze sensing parameters. A subset of 2146 water-pollution-related patents was analyzed in detail. The analysis covered sensing parameters, temporal trends, compound annual growth rates (CAGR), legal status, geographic distribution of patent origins and markets, and the technological landscape, including application domains and niche clusters. The results show pronounced exponential growth in patent filings since 2014 and a high share of active documents, indicating sustained global investment. Innovation leadership is concentrated in China, South Korea, India, the United States, and Japan, with export-oriented patents largely held by transnational corporations, while African participation remains limited. Technological trends prioritize multiparameter environmental and biological sensing, addressing pH, temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and oxidation–reduction potential. Emerging solutions integrate autonomous platforms, remote sensing, Internet-of-Things architectures, and machine-learning-based analytics. Persistent bottlenecks include sensor robustness in harsh aquatic environments and the reliable discrimination between background variability and early pollution signals. Strengthening low-cost and scalable deployment remains essential to ensure water quality, support environmental sustainability, and minimize risks. Full article

This study aimed to assess the economic-trade sustainability of crab exports from Canada, Vietnam and China by contrasting frozen (HS 030614) and non-frozen (HS 030633) segments in terms of destination diversification and revealed competitiveness. In this study, economic-trade sustainability is interpreted as the structural coherence between destination diversification, revealed competitiveness, and the trade conditions that support export continuity in perishable products. A quantitative, descriptive within-country design was implemented using ITC Trade Map secondary data for 2020–2024. Destination concentration was measured with the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), competitiveness with symmetric revealed comparative advantage (SRCA), structural orientation with a Relative Specialization Index (RSI), and an integrated positioning matrix combined mean HHI and SRCA with export-weighted centering and confidence intervals. The results indicated persistently high concentration in Canada across both segments, with frozen exports locked into a United States corridor and non-frozen exports becoming increasingly China-dependent. China exhibited moderate concentration and a more regionally dispersed portfolio, alongside stable competitive advantages in several Asian markets, while showing selective disadvantages in some Western destinations. Vietnam displayed the highest structural vulnerability, particularly in the non-frozen segment, with extremely high HHI, abrupt destination shifts and competitiveness confined to a narrow corridor. Overall, preservation-form segmentation shaped distinct risk architectures, and sustainability depended on the joint configuration of diversification and competitive strength. Full article

In an era of rising geopolitical tensions, repeated global crises, and growing uncertainty in trade and finance, economic resilience has become a key priority for policymakers. This study presents an understanding by distinguishing regional resilience from global resilience, offering hardnosed explanations of both concepts and outlining mensurable indicators for each. Regional resilience is the capacity of an economy to endure and recuperate from shocks by way of strong, cost-effective connections in its region. These could be seen in terms of intra-bloc trade power, trade concentration, intra-regional investment flows and constant capital flows, which indicate the deep economical integration and interdependence. On the contrary, global resilience is concerned with the extent to which an economy is guarded by larger global diversification. It is quantified by the distribution of exports and investments geographically, the extent and diversity of trade partners, membership on global value chains, and the stability of the cross-border capital flows. Understanding the difference between these two forms of resilience has become increasingly important for policy design, especially in a period marked by repeated crises, geopolitical tension, and shifting trade and financial conditions. Countries must decide not only how open their economies should be, but also whether openness should be integrated regionally, diversified globally, or stable through a hybrid approach. Further, it argues that regional integration is peculiarly invaluable during region-wide disruptions such as pandemics, financial crises, or supply shortages, where integrated policies can reduce adjustment costs and protect demand and supply chains. However, global diversification becomes significant in areas such as energy and commodity security, where dependence on limited suppliers can magnify risks. Ultimately, most economies benefit from combining both approaches (a hybrid approach), adapting their strategy to the development stage, institutional strengths, and exposure to external shocks. Full article

With the deepening of international trade and the increasing shortage of land resources, the importance of virtual soil trade in grain has become increasingly prominent. Based on FAO data, this study constructs the virtual soil trade network of wheat, rice, corn and soybean in the major G20 grain trading countries in 2013 and 2023, measures its network characteristics, and uses the exponential random graph model to explore its influencing factors from three dimensions of economic scale, geographical characteristics and resource endowment. The results show that: (1) virtual land trade is essentially a redistribution mechanism of land use pressure, rather than a simple grain flow; (2) the formation of network is driven by exogenous economic factors and endogenous relations; and (3) the role of each country in the network varies with the grain and food category and the development stage, showing a systematic differentiation. It is suggested that the allocation of land resources should be optimized according to the differences in virtual land flows in different countries and food categories. Since the export of virtual land is accompanied by ecological costs (such as deforestation, soil degradation, and water consumption), sustainability must be integrated into trade policies. Rations involve national security strategy, and it is necessary to strengthen domestic productivity and strategic reserves. Feed grain can use the market mechanism to promote trade liberalization and diversification, and reduce the risk of supply chain concentration while giving full play to the global comparative advantage. Full article

Wheat trade sustainability has become critical amid compounding shocks—pandemic disruptions, extreme weather events, and the Russia–Ukraine war—that exposed vulnerabilities in global food supply systems. This study documents how five major wheat suppliers (Australia, Canada, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine) adjusted destination structures and revealed competitive positions during 2020–2024, and whether these structural configurations coincided with more or less stable export outcomes. Using annual FOB export data from the International Trade Centre, destination concentration is measured through the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), revealed competitive positioning is assessed using the symmetric revealed comparative advantage (SRCA) (the symmetric transformation of the Balassa RCA), and outcome stability is summarized with volatility (coefficient of variation) and maximum drawdown computed from annual export values. The United States maintained structural diversification; Canada shifted toward high concentration; Australia preserved moderate dispersion but exhibited pronounced outcome volatility; Ukraine experienced a post-2022 reconfiguration with elevated concentration and large drawdowns, whereas the Russian Federation is reported only up to 2021 due to ITC data availability in the extraction used (thus interpreted as a pre-shock baseline). Overall, export sustainability under shocks is best interpreted as a combination of destination-risk architecture, revealed positioning, and observed stability of outcomes rather than inferred from competitiveness alone. Full article

Background: Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing E. coli are a major One Health concern because they compromise critically important cephalosporins and may spread via mobile genetic elements, including plasmids and transposon-associated modules, within food-animal production systems. Objectives: The aim of this study was to characterize cefotaxime (CTX)/clavulanic acid (CLA) inhibitor-positive phenotype profiles in pig-associated multidrug-resistant (MDR) E. coli and resolve their genetic basis using whole-genome sequencing, with emphasis on ESBL determinants and their predicted mobility context. Methods: MDR E. coli isolates (n = 203) from four large-scale pig farms in Hungary were tested by broth microdilution minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) determination and Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) inhibitor-based ESBL confirmation using cefotaxime with/without clavulanic acid. CTX/CLA inhibitor-positive isolates (inhibitor-positive phenotype) were subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS; n = 116) and resistome profiling; antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) were called against the Comprehensive Antibiotic Resistance Database (CARD) and mobility context was inferred using plasmid-origin and MGE-proximity prediction. Results: Overall, 127/203 isolates (62.6%) showed a CTX/CLA inhibitor-positive phenotype with a pronounced inhibitory effect (median cefotaxime/cefotaxime–clavulanate ratio: 33.3). In the sequenced subset (n = 116), 5427 ARG hits were identified (82 unique ARGs in the export), including frequent acquired determinants affecting tetracyclines, sulfonamides/trimethoprim, aminoglycosides, and phenicols; plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance (qnrB5) and mobilizable colistin resistance (mcr-1) were detected at low frequency. Classical β-lactamase genes were detected, including CTX-M (ESBL genes) and TEM alleles. CTX-M and/or TEM were detected in 47/116 genomes (40.5%), dominated by CTX-M-32 (11.2%) and TEM-1 (23.3%); detected ESBL determinants were predominantly predicted to be located on contigs predicted to be of plasmid origin, with a subset showing signatures consistent with transposition-associated mobilization. Conclusion: The high burden of inhibitor-positive phenotype, together with an inferred plasmid-/MGE-associated context for a subset of ESBL genes, and substantial phenotype–genotype heterogeneity, supports integrated phenotypic–genomic surveillance to refine AMR risk assessment and guide targeted stewardship and biosecurity interventions in pig production. Full article

This study investigates the spatial exposure of Brazil’s Legal Amazon (BLA) as the deforestation frontier, operationalized as Brazil’s legally defined Amazon Legal administrative region, in Brazil’s commodity exports to its two largest partners: the European Union (EU) and China. Focusing on agricultural, forestry and mining commodity groups, a destination-specific Relative Concentration Ratio (RCR) and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) on physical trade data (2002–2024) were used to examine whether contrasting trade governance logics—the regulatory “Brussels Effect” and the scale-driven “Beijing Effect”—are associated with different sourcing geographies from the BLA frontier. We test three competing expectations: EU spatial avoidance, higher Chinese frontier dependence, and compliance-driven consolidation. The results reveal a counterintuitive paradox: despite stricter sustainability governance, the EU displays persistently higher frontier dependence than China in key commodity groups, with RCR trajectories indicating stabilization rather than spatial avoidance. In contrast, China’s frontier dependence declines over time in selected sectors even as import volumes expand substantially, highlighting that changes in frontier exposure cannot be inferred from trade scale alone. CAGR patterns further show strong growth in China-related trade at the national level across commodity groups, alongside sector-specific frontier dynamics within BLA. Overall, the findings provide the strongest support for the consolidation hypothesis: compliance and traceability requirements—public and private—may concentrate EU-linked sourcing among highly auditable, capitalized producers embedded in established frontier zones. These results imply that without explicit spatial targeting, demand-side regulations such as the EUDR may improve product-level assurances yet fail to induce a geographic shift away from deforestation frontiers, potentially reinforcing trade links with established producers in high-risk regions. Full article

Trade competitiveness can coexist with structurally fragile value chains. When chain feasibility fractures from trade competitiveness, competitiveness without coherence becomes sustainability’s opposite. This paper proposes revisiting the concept of sustainability in agri-food systems, through the lens of structural coherence, understood as the alignment between trade competitiveness, export-destination diversification, and value chain capacity. The research goal is to design and operationalize a diagnostic instrument for structural coherence testing through the triangulation of constant market share analysis (CMSA), the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), and physical structural input–output analysis (I-OA). CMSA measures two elements: demand- and competitiveness-driven export dynamics. Export patterns are further explored to verify if there are any destination-market concentration risks (HHI). I-OA closes the loop by linking trade outcomes to internal value chain capacity and efficiency. With clear upstream–downstream segmentation, the sunflower oilseed value chain of the European Union (EU) represents an empirically fertile ground, relevant in the context of the geopolitical disruptions of Black Sea trade corridors and double-cropping dynamics with food-fuel and land-use trade-offs. Focusing on Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Romania, and Spain, which collectively account for more than 85% of EU sunflower seed production, this paper benchmarks post-2013 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) programming effects, utilized as a proxy for a period of stability, against the post-2020 window, marked by a sequence of crises. Diagnosis is facilitated through findings triangulation, enabling deriving CAP-relevant policy recommendations, aligned with country-specific binding constraints. Results show heterogeneous structurally incoherent profiles: Bulgaria suffers from growth-induced stress, France’s chain efficiency is eroded, the Hungarian chain lacks competitiveness, Romania is raw-export dependent with value-added leakage, and Spain is structurally constrained by physical limits. Policy recommendations target reorienting market-driven low value-added trade behaviors toward structurally sustainable value chain trajectories. Full article

High-quality agricultural products from the Lambayeque region have contributed to the growth of Peru’s agro-export sector and increased international trade. However, the need for agricultural exports to be more resilient and sustainable is demonstrated by the fact that markets are still concentrated, logistical costs are high, and global demand is constantly shifting. The purpose of this study is to use a gravity-based trade model and market intelligence techniques to analyse the agricultural exports from the Lambayeque region between 2015 and 2024. Using official data from the World Bank, AZATRADE, CEPII, and MINCETUR, we employed a quantitative explanatory approach. The results show that the concentration of businesses has significantly decreased while the value of exports has increased steadily. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index increased from 6209 in 2015 to 1349 in 2024, and export destinations have become slightly more diverse. Exports are negatively impacted by geographic distance, but free trade agreements greatly benefit them. There is a lot of export potential in markets like Finland, Indonesia, Austria, Bolivia, and Vietnam. However, Israel and Hong Kong appear to be full. Overall, the findings indicate that Lambayeque’s export performance has improved, but it still runs the risk of becoming overly focused on a single sector. Long-term sustainability of the region’s agricultural exports depends on enhancing logistical infrastructure, bolstering market intelligence, and promoting regional diversity. Full article

Indonesia’s reliance on fossil-based energy exports continuously shapes the dynamics of CO₂ emission and the broader energy environment relationship across regions. This study applies a symmetric–asymmetric copula-based generalized linear mixed model (copula–GLMM) to examine the joint dependence between energy exports and CO₂ emissions across 34 provinces from 2010 to 2024. The proposed framework captures both balanced and tail-specific dependence structures, providing a deeper understanding of the evolving dynamics shaped by industrial concentration, policy interventions, and technological adoption. The analysis reveals a strong positive association, with the Clayton copula offering the best fit. Notably, lower-tail dependence shows that provinces with smaller export volumes face disproportionate emission risks, whereas regions with larger exports exhibit more stable outcomes due to renewable integration and improved efficiency. These findings challenge the notion that export growth inevitably leads to proportional emission increases. The study underscores the need for region-specific strategies rather than uniform national policies to advance sustainability goals and support Indonesia’s commitments to SGDs 7, 11, and 13, as well as the Paris Agreement. Full article

This study asks how diversified and how competitive banana exports from Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia were during 2020 to 2024, and what risks arise from their market mix. The original contribution is a two-metric approach that jointly applies the Herfindahl Hirschman Index by destination to measure geographic concentration and the normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage to measure relative competitiveness. Using both indicators together creates a clear and reproducible benchmark for policy and firm decisions. A quantitative and descriptive design was applied to official trade data for HS 0803. Results show that Ecuador combined strong comparative advantage with low concentration, which supports regional leadership. Colombia expanded exports while its concentration rose, a sign of greater exposure despite solid performance in Europe. Peru lost shares and became more dependent on a few outlets, yet kept advantages in organic and niche segments. Bolivia displayed extreme concentration centered on Argentina. Practically, the findings support market diversification, staged entry into new destinations, stronger commercial partnerships, and the integration of sustainability and risk management. Theoretically, the study clarifies that diversification and competitiveness are distinct constructs and that assessing both together with transparent indices improves the diagnosis of resilience. Full article