Search Results (7,070)

Decarbonization of the Greek economy requires significant investments in clean technologies. This will boost demand for goods and services and will create multiplier effects on output value added and employment, though reliance on imported technologies might increase the trade deficit. This study employs input–output analysis to estimate the direct, indirect, and multiplier effects of green transition investments on Greek output, value added, employment, and imports across five-year intervals from 2025 to 2050. Two scenarios are considered: the former is based on the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), driven by a large-scale exploitation of RES and technologies promoting electrification of final demand, while the latter (developed in the context of the CLEVER project) prioritizes energy sufficiency and efficiency interventions to reduce final energy demand. In the NECP scenario, GDP increases by 3–10% (relative to 2023), and employment increases by 4–11%. The CLEVER scenario yields smaller direct effects—owing to lower investment levels—but larger induced impacts, since energy savings boost household disposable income. The consideration of three sub-scenarios adopting different levels of import-substitution rates in key manufacturing sectors exhibits pronounced divergence, indicating that targeted industrial policies can significantly amplify the domestic economic benefits of the green transition. Full article

Understanding the migratory strategies of plateau-endemic species is essential for informing effective conservation, especially under climate change. The Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis), a high-altitude specialist, has shown notable population growth in recent years. We analysed satellite tracking data from 16 individuals of a western subpopulation in the lake basin region of northern Tibet (2021–2024), focusing on migration patterns, stopover use, and habitat selection. This subpopulation exhibited short-distance (mean: 284.21 km), intra-Tibet migrations with low reliance on stopover sites. Autumn migration was shorter, more direct, higher in altitude, and slower in speed than spring migration. Juveniles used smaller, more fragmented habitats than subadults, and their spatial range expanded over time. Given these patterns, we infer that the short-distance migration strategy may reduce energetic demands and mortality risks while increasing route flexibility—characteristics that may benefit population growth. We refer to this as a low-energy, high-efficiency migration strategy, which we hypothesise could support faster population growth and enhance resilience to environmental change. We recommend prioritizing the conservation of short-distance migration corridors, such as the typical lake basin area in northern Tibet–Yarlung Tsangpo River system, which may help sustain plateau-endemic migratory populations under future climate scenarios. Full article

To reveal the influence mechanisms of seasonal climatic factors (wind speed, wind direction, temperature) and leakage direction on hydrogen dispersion and explosion behavior from single-source leaks at typical risk locations (hydrogen storage tanks, compressors, dispensers) in hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs), this work established a full-scale 1:1 three-dimensional numerical model using the FLACS v22.2 software based on the actual layout of an HRS in Xichang, Sichuan Province. Through systematic simulations of 72 leakage scenarios (3 equipment types × 4 seasons × 6 leakage directions), the coupled effects of climatic conditions, equipment layout, and leakage direction on hydrogen dispersion patterns and explosion risks were quantitatively analyzed. The key findings indicate the following: (1) Downward leaks (−Z direction) from storage tanks tend to form large-area ground-hugging hydrogen clouds, representing the highest explosion risk (overpressure peak: 0.25 barg; flame temperature: >2500 K). Leakage from compressors (±X/−Z directions) readily affects adjacent equipment. Dispenser leaks pose relatively lower risks, but specific directions (−Y direction) coupled with wind fields may drive significant hydrogen dispersion toward station buildings. (2) Southeast/south winds during spring/summer promote outward migration of hydrogen clouds, reducing overall station risk but causing localized accumulation near storage tanks. Conversely, north/northwest winds in autumn/winter intensify hydrogen concentrations in compressor and station building areas. (3) An empirical formula integrating climatic parameters, leakage conditions, and spatial coordinates was proposed to predict hydrogen concentration (error < 20%). This model provides theoretical and data support for optimizing sensor placement, dynamically adjusting ventilation strategies, and enhancing safety design in HRSs. Full article

Amidst global climate change, carbon emissions across the edible vegetable oil supply chain are critical for sustainable development. This paper systematically reviews the existing literature, employing life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyze key factors influencing carbon footprints at stages including cultivation, processing, and transportation. It reveals the differential impacts of fertilizer application, energy structures, and regional policies. Unlike previous reviews that focus on single crops or regions, this study uniquely integrates global data across major edible oils, identifying three critical gaps: methodological inconsistency (60% of studies deviate from the requirements and guidelines for LCA); data imbalance (80% concentrated on soybean/rapeseed); weak policy-technical linkage. Key findings: fertilizer emissions dominate cultivation (40–60% of total footprint), while renewable energy substitution in processing reduces emissions by 35%. Future efforts should prioritize multidisciplinary integration, enhanced data infrastructure, and policy scenario analysis to provide scientific insights for the low-carbon transformation of the global edible oil industry. Full article

Building performance simulation is crucial for the design and optimization of sustainable buildings. However, the increasing complexity of building systems necessitates advanced modeling techniques capable of handling multi-domain interactions. This paper presents a novel application of the bond graph (BG) methodology to simulate and analyze the thermal behavior of an integrated trigeneration system within an experimental test cell. Unlike conventional simulation approaches, the BG framework enables unified modeling of thermal and hydraulic subsystems, offering a physically consistent and energy-based representation of system dynamics. The study investigates the system’s performance under both dynamic and steady-state conditions across two distinct climatic periods. Validation against experimental data reveals strong agreement between measured and simulated temperatures in heating and cooling scenarios, with minimal deviations. This confirms the method’s reliability and its capacity to capture transient thermal behaviors. The results also demonstrate the BG model’s effectiveness in supporting predictive control strategies, optimizing energy efficiency, and maintaining thermal comfort. By integrating hydraulic circuits and thermal exchange processes within a single modeling framework, this work highlights the potential of bond graphs as a robust and scalable tool for advanced building performance simulation. Full article

This study assesses future agricultural drought risk in the Ganjiang River Basin under climate change and land use change. A coupled analysis framework was established using the SWAT hydrological model, the CMIP6 climate models (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), and the PLUS land use simulation model. Key methods included the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), travel time theory for drought event identification and duration analysis, Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Pettitt change-point test to examine soil moisture dynamics from 2027 to 2100. The results indicate that the CMIP6 ensemble performs excellently in temperature simulations, with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.89 and a root mean square error of RMSE = 1.2 °C, compared to the observational data. The MMM-Best model also performs well in precipitation simulations, with R² = 0.82 and RMSE = 15.3 mm, compared to observational data. Land use changes between 2000 and 2020 showed a decrease in forestland (−3.2%), grassland (−2.8%), and construction land (−1.5%), with an increase in water (4.8%) and unused land (2.7%). Under all emission scenarios, the SSMI values fluctuate with standard deviations of 0.85 (SSP1-2.6), 1.12 (SSP2-4.5), and 1.34 (SSP5-8.5), with the strongest drought intensity observed under SSP5-8.5 (minimum SSMI = −2.8). Drought events exhibited spatial and temporal heterogeneity across scenarios, with drought-affected areas ranging from 25% (SSP1-2.6) to 45% (SSP5-8.5) of the basin. Notably, abrupt changes in soil moisture under SSP5-8.5 occurred earlier (2045–2050) due to intensified land use change, indicating strong human influence on hydrological cycles. This study integrated the CMIP6 climate projections with high-resolution human activity data to advance drought risk assessment methods. It established a framework for assessing agricultural drought risk at the regional scale that comprehensively considers climate and human influences, providing targeted guidance for the formulation of adaptive water resource and land management strategies. Full article

Wind power has gained attention as a vital renewable energy source capable of reducing emissions and serving as an effective alternative to fossil fuels. Floating wind farms could significantly enhance the energy capacities of Mediterranean countries. However, location selection for offshore wind farms (OWFs) is a challenge for renewable energy policy and marine spatial planning (MSP). To address these issues, this study considers the marine space of Greece to propose a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify suitable sites for OWFs. The approach assesses 19 exclusion criteria encompassing legislative, environmental, safety, and technical constraints to determine the eligible areas. Subsequently, 10 evaluation criteria are weighted to determine the selected areas’ level of suitability. The study considers baseline conditions (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for two horizons (2011–2040 and 2041–2070), integrating projected wind velocities and sea level rise to evaluate potential shifts in suitable areas. Results indicate the central and southeastern Aegean Sea as the most suitable areas for OWF deployment. Climate projections indicate a modest increase in suitable areas. The findings serve as input for climate-resilient MSP seeking to promote sustainable energy development. Full article

Floods stand as one of the most harmful natural disasters, which have become more dangerous because of climate change effects on urban structures and agricultural fields. This research presents a comprehensive flood mapping approach that combines multi-sensor satellite data with a machine learning method to evaluate the July 2021 flood in the Netherlands. The research developed 25 different feature scenarios through the combination of Sentinel-1, Landsat-8, and Radarsat-2 imagery data by using backscattering coefficients together with optical Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Hue, Saturation, and Value (HSV) images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) texture features. The Random Forest (RF) classifier was optimized before its application based on two different flood-prone regions, which included Zutphen’s urban area and Heijen’s agricultural land. Results demonstrated that the multi-sensor fusion scenarios (S18, S20, and S25) achieved the highest classification performance, with overall accuracy reaching 96.4% (Kappa = 0.906–0.949) in Zutphen and 87.5% (Kappa = 0.754–0.833) in Heijen. For the flood class F1 scores of all scenarios, they varied from 0.742 to 0.969 in Zutphen and from 0.626 to 0.969 in Heijen. Eventually, the addition of SAR texture metrics enhanced flood boundary identification throughout both urban and agricultural settings. Radarsat-2 provided limited benefits to the overall results, since Sentinel-1 and Landsat-8 data proved more effective despite being freely available. This study demonstrates that using SAR and optical features together with texture information creates a powerful and expandable flood mapping system, and RF classification performs well in diverse landscape settings. Full article

High nighttime temperature (HNT) due to asymmetric diurnal warming threatens wheat productivity. This study evaluated the effect of HNT on wheat phenology, physiology, and yield through field and controlled environment experiments in Central Queensland, Australia. Two wheat genotypes, Faraday and AVT#6, were assessed under three sowing dates—1 May (Early), 15 June (Mid), and 1 August (Late)—within the recommended sowing window for the region. In a parallel growth chamber study, the plants were exposed to two nighttime temperature regimes, of 15 °C (normal) and 20 °C (high), with consistent daytime conditions from booting to maturity. Late sowing resulted in shortened vegetative growth and grain filling periods and increased exposure to HNT during the reproductive phase. This resulted in elevated floret sterility, lower grain weight, and up to 40% yield loss. AVT#6 exhibited greater sensitivity to HNT despite maturing earlier. Leaf gas exchange analysis revealed increased nighttime respiration (Rn) and reduced assimilation (A), resulting in higher Rn/A ratio for late-sown crops. The results from controlled environment chambers resembled trends of the field experiment, producing lower grain yield and biomass under HNT. Cumulative nighttime hours above 20 °C correlated more strongly with yield losses than daytime heat. These findings highlight the need for HNT-tolerant genotypes and optimized sowing schedules under future climate scenarios. Full article

The Tibetan-Himalayan region, recognized as a global biodiversity hotspot, is increasingly threatened by the dual pressures of climate change and human activities. Understanding the vulnerability of plant species to these forces is crucial for effective ecological conservation in this region. This study employed an improved Climate Niche Factor Analysis (CNFA) framework to assess the vulnerability of six representative alpine endemic herbaceous plants in this ecologically sensitive region under future climate changes. Our results show distinct spatial vulnerability patterns for the six species, with higher vulnerability in the western regions of the Tibetan-Himalayan region and lower vulnerability in the eastern areas. Particularly under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), climate change is projected to substantially intensify threats to these plant species, reinforcing the imperative for targeted conservation strategies. Additionally, we found that the current coverage of protected areas (PAs) within the species’ habitats was severely insufficient, with less than 25% coverage overall, and it was even lower (<7%) in highly vulnerable regions. Human activity hotspots, such as the regions around Lhasa and Chengdu, further exacerbate species vulnerability. Notably, some species currently classified as least concern (e.g., Stipa purpurea (S. purpurea)) according to the IUCN Red List exhibit higher vulnerability than species listed as near threatened (e.g., Cyananthus microphyllus (C. microphylla)) under future climate change. These findings suggest that existing biodiversity assessments, such as the IUCN Red List, may not adequately account for future climate risks, highlighting the importance of incorporating climate change projections into conservation planning. Our study calls for expanding and optimizing PAs, improving management, and enhancing climate resilience to mitigate biodiversity loss in the face of climate change and human pressures. Full article

In the past three decades, localized research has highlighted shifts in rainfall patterns and temperature trends in central Ethiopia, a region vital for agriculture and economic activities and heavily dependent on climate conditions to sustain livelihoods and ensure food security. However, comprehensive analyses of long-term climate data remain limited for this area. Understanding local climate trends is essential for enhancing agricultural resilience in the study area, a region heavily dependent on rainfall for crop production. This study analyzes historical rainfall and temperature patterns over the past 30 years and projects future climate conditions using downscaled CMIP6 models under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate spatial variability in rainfall trends, with certain areas showing increasing rainfall while others experience declines. Temperature has shown a consistent upward trend across all seasons, with more pronounced warming during the short rainy season (Belg). Climate projections suggest continued warming and moderate increases in annual rainfall, particularly under SSP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. It is concluded that both temperature and rainfall are projected to increase in magnitude by 2080, with higher Sen’s slope values compared to earlier periods, indicating a continued upward trend. These findings highlight potential breaks in agricultural calendars, such as shifts in rainfall onset and cessation, shortened or extended growing seasons, and increased risk of temperature-induced stress. This study highlights the need for localized adaptation strategies to safeguard agriculture production and enhance resilience in the face of future climate variability. Full article

Bare land exposed by glacier retreat provides new opportunities for ecosystem development. Investigating primary vegetation succession in deglaciated regions can provide significant insights for ecological restoration, particularly for future climate change scenarios. Nonetheless, research on this topic in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has been exceedingly limited. This study aimed to investigate vegetation succession in the deglaciated area of the Zepu glacier during the Little Ice Age in southeastern Tibet. Quadrat surveys were performed on arboreal communities, and trends in vegetation change were assessed utilizing multi-year (1986–2024) remote sensing data. The findings indicate that vegetation succession in the Zepu glacier deglaciated area typically adheres to a sequence of bare land–shrub–tree, divided into four stages: (1) shrub (species include Larix griffithii Mast., Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis Rousi, Betula utilis D. Don, and Populus pseudoglauca C. Wang & P. Y. Fu); (2) broadleaf forest primarily dominated by Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis Rousi; (3) mixed coniferous–broadleaf forest with Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis Rousi and Populus pseudoglauca C. Wang & P. Y. Fu as the dominant species; and (4) mixed coniferous–broadleaf forest dominated by Picea likiangensis (Franch.) E. Pritz. Soil depth and NDVI both increase with succession. Species diversity is significantly higher in the third stage compared to other successional stages. In addition, soil moisture content is significantly greater in the broadleaf-dominated communities than in the conifer-dominated communities. An analysis of NDVI from 1986 to 2024 reveals an overall positive trend in vegetation recovery in the area, with 93% of the area showing significant vegetation increase. Temperature is the primary controlling factor for this recovery, showing a positive correlation with vegetation cover. The results indicate that Key ecological indicators—including species composition, diversity, NDVI, soil depth, and soil moisture content—exhibit stage-specific patterns, reflecting distinct phases of primary succession. These findings enhance our comprehension of vegetation succession in deglaciated areas and their influencing factors in deglaciated areas, providing theoretical support for vegetation restoration in climate change. Full article

Climate change poses an escalating threat to cultural heritage (CH), driven by intensifying climate-related hazards and systemic vulnerabilities. In response, risk assessment frameworks and methodologies (RAFMs) have emerged to evaluate and guide adaptation strategies for safeguarding heritage assets. This study conducts a state-of-the-art (SotA) review of 86 unique RAFMs using a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA)-guided systematic approach to assess their scope, methodological rigor, alignment with global climate and disaster risk reduction (DRR) frameworks, and consistency in conceptual definitions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Results reveal a growing integration of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-based climate projections and alignment with international policy instruments such as the Sendai Framework and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). However, notable gaps persist, including definitional inconsistencies, particularly in the misapplication of vulnerability concepts; fragmented and case-specific methodologies that challenge comparability; and limited integration of intangible heritage. Best practices include participatory stakeholder engagement, scenario-based modeling, and incorporation of multi-scale risk typologies. This review advocates for more standardized, interdisciplinary, and policy-aligned frameworks that enable scalable, culturally sensitive, and action-oriented risk assessments, ultimately strengthening the resilience of cultural heritage in a changing climate. Full article

This study investigates the influence of façade-design parameters on daylighting performance in hot arid climates, with a particular focus on Egypt. A total of nine façade configurations of a residential building were modeled and simulated using Autodesk Revit and Insight 360, varying three critical variables: glazing type (clear, blue, and dark), Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) of 15%, 50%, 75%, and indoor wall finish (light, moderate, dark) colors. These were compared to the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) daylighting quality thresholds. The results revealed that clear glazing paired with high WWR (75%) achieved the highest Spatial Daylight Autonomy (sDA), reaching up to 92% in living spaces. However, this also led to elevated Annual Sunlight Exposure (ASE), with peak values of 53%, exceeding the LEED discomfort threshold of 10%. Blue and dark glazing types successfully reduced ASE to as low as 0–13%, yet often resulted in underlit spaces, especially in private rooms such as bedrooms and bathrooms, with sDA values falling below 20%. A 50% WWR emerged as the optimal balance, providing consistent daylight distribution while maintaining ASE within acceptable limits (≤33%). Similarly, moderate color wall finishes delivered the most balanced lighting performance, enhancing sDA by up to 30% while controlling reflective glare. Statistical analysis using Pearson correlation revealed a strong positive relationship between sDA and ASE (r = 0.84) in highly glazed, clear glass scenarios. Sensitivity analysis further indicated that low WWR configurations of 15% were highly influenced by glazing and finishing types, leading to variability in daylight metrics reaching ±40%. The study concludes that moderate glazing (blue), medium WWR (50%), and moderate color indoor finishes provide the most robust daylighting performance across diverse room types. These findings support an evidence-based approach to façade design, promoting visual comfort, daylight quality, and sustainable building practices. Full article

The compound effects of extreme climate change and intensive urban development have led to more frequent urban inundation, highlighting the urgent need for the fine-scale evaluation of stormwater drainage system performance in high-density urban built-up areas. A typical basin, located in Shenzhen, was selected, and a pipe–river coupled SWMM was developed and calibrated via a genetic algorithm to simulate the storm drainage system. Design storm scenario analyses revealed that regional inundation occurred in the central area of the basin and the enclosed culvert sections of the midstream river, even under a 0.5-year recurrence period, while the downstream open river channels maintained a substantial drainage capacity under a 200-year rainfall event. To systematically identify bottleneck zones, two novel metrics, namely, the node cumulative inundation volume and the conduit cumulative inundation length, were proposed to quantify the local inundation severity and spatial interactions across the drainage network. Two critical bottleneck zones were selected, and strategic improvement via the cross-sectional expansion of pipes and river culverts significantly enhanced the drainage efficiency. This study provides a practical case study and transferable technical framework for integrating hydraulic modeling, spatial analytics, and targeted infrastructure upgrades to enhance the resilience of drainage systems in high-density urban environments, offering an actionable framework for sustainable urban stormwater drainage system management. Full article