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Search Results (642)

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Keywords = a priori estimates

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18 pages, 761 KiB  
Article
A Priori Sample Size Determination for Estimating a Location Parameter Under a Unified Skew-Normal Distribution
by Cong Wang, Weizhong Tian and Jingjing Yang
Symmetry 2025, 17(8), 1228; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym17081228 - 4 Aug 2025
Viewed by 57
Abstract
The a priori procedure (APP) is concerned with determining appropriate sample sizes to ensure that sample statistics to be obtained are likely to be good estimators of corresponding population parameters. Previous researchers have shown how to compute a priori confidence interval means or [...] Read more.
The a priori procedure (APP) is concerned with determining appropriate sample sizes to ensure that sample statistics to be obtained are likely to be good estimators of corresponding population parameters. Previous researchers have shown how to compute a priori confidence interval means or locations for normal and skew-normal distributions. However, two critical limitations persist in the literature: (1) While numerous skewed models have been proposed, the APP equations for location parameters have only been formally established for the basic skew-normal distributions. (2) Even within this fundamental framework, the APPs for sample size determinations in estimating locations are constructed on samples of specifically dependent observations having multivariate skew-normal distributions jointly. Our work addresses these limitations by extending a priori reasoning to the more comprehensive unified skew-normal (SUN) distribution. The SUN family not only encompasses multiple existing skew-normal models as special cases but also enables broader practical applications through its capacity to model mixed skewness patterns and diverse tail behaviors. In this paper, we establish APP equations for determining the required sample sizes and set up confidence intervals for the location parameter in the one-sample case, as well as for the difference in locations in matched pairs and two independent samples, assuming independent observations from the SUN family. This extension addresses a critical gap in the literature and offers a valuable contribution to the field. Simulation studies support the equations presented, and two applications involve real data sets for illustrations of our main results. Full article
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30 pages, 1523 KiB  
Article
Modeling and Simulation of Attraction–Repulsion Chemotaxis Mechanism System with Competing Signal
by Anandan P. Aswathi, Amar Debbouche, Yadhavan Karuppusamy and Lingeshwaran Shangerganesh
Mathematics 2025, 13(15), 2486; https://doi.org/10.3390/math13152486 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 162
Abstract
This paper addresses an attraction–repulsion chemotaxis system governed by Neumann boundary conditions within a bounded domain ΩR3 that has a smooth boundary. The primary focus of the study is the chemotactic response of a species (cell population) to two competing [...] Read more.
This paper addresses an attraction–repulsion chemotaxis system governed by Neumann boundary conditions within a bounded domain ΩR3 that has a smooth boundary. The primary focus of the study is the chemotactic response of a species (cell population) to two competing signals. We establish the existence and uniqueness of a weak solution to the system by analyzing the solvability of an approximate problem and utilizing the Leray–Schauder fixed-point theorem. By deriving appropriate a priori estimates, we demonstrate that the solution of the approximate problem converges to a weak solution of the original system. Additionally, we conduct computational studies of the model using the finite element method. The accuracy of our numerical implementation is evaluated through error analysis and numerical convergence, followed by various numerical simulations in a two-dimensional domain to illustrate the dynamics of the system and validate the theoretical findings. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Numerical Analysis of Partial Differential Equations)
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22 pages, 1642 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Predator–Prey Model with Harvest and Disease in Prey
by Jingen Yang, Zhong Zhao, Yingying Kong and Jing Xu
Mathematics 2025, 13(15), 2474; https://doi.org/10.3390/math13152474 - 31 Jul 2025
Viewed by 126
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a diffusion-type predator–prey interaction model with harvest and disease in prey, and conduct stability analysis and pattern formation analysis on the model. For the temporal model, the asymptotic stability of each equilibrium is analyzed using the linear stability [...] Read more.
In this paper, we propose a diffusion-type predator–prey interaction model with harvest and disease in prey, and conduct stability analysis and pattern formation analysis on the model. For the temporal model, the asymptotic stability of each equilibrium is analyzed using the linear stability method, and the conditions for Hopf bifurcation to occur near the positive equilibrium are investigated. The simulation results indicate that an increase in infection force might disrupt the stability of the model, while an increase in harvesting intensity would make the model stable. For the spatiotemporal model, a priori estimate for the positive steady state is obtained for the non-existence of the non-constant positive solution using maximum principle and Harnack inequality. The Leray–Schauder degree theory is used to study the sufficient conditions for the existence of non-constant positive steady states of the model, and pattern formation are achieved through numerical simulations. This indicates that the movement of prey and predators plays an important role in pattern formation, and different diffusions of these species may play essentially different effects. Full article
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24 pages, 1508 KiB  
Article
Genomic Prediction of Adaptation in Common Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) × Tepary Bean (P. acutifolius A. Gray) Hybrids
by Felipe López-Hernández, Diego F. Villanueva-Mejía, Adriana Patricia Tofiño-Rivera and Andrés J. Cortés
Int. J. Mol. Sci. 2025, 26(15), 7370; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms26157370 - 30 Jul 2025
Viewed by 280
Abstract
Climate change is jeopardizing global food security, with at least 713 million people facing hunger. To face this challenge, legumes as common beans could offer a nature-based solution, sourcing nutrients and dietary fiber, especially for rural communities in Latin America and Africa. However, [...] Read more.
Climate change is jeopardizing global food security, with at least 713 million people facing hunger. To face this challenge, legumes as common beans could offer a nature-based solution, sourcing nutrients and dietary fiber, especially for rural communities in Latin America and Africa. However, since common beans are generally heat and drought susceptible, it is imperative to speed up their molecular introgressive adaptive breeding so that they can be cultivated in regions affected by extreme weather. Therefore, this study aimed to couple an advanced panel of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) × tolerant Tepary bean (P. acutifolius A. Gray) interspecific lines with Bayesian regression algorithms to forecast adaptation to the humid and dry sub-regions at the Caribbean coast of Colombia, where the common bean typically exhibits maladaptation to extreme heat waves. A total of 87 advanced lines with hybrid ancestries were successfully bred, surpassing the interspecific incompatibilities. This hybrid panel was genotyped by sequencing (GBS), leading to the discovery of 15,645 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Three yield components (yield per plant, and number of seeds and pods) and two biomass variables (vegetative and seed biomass) were recorded for each genotype and inputted in several Bayesian regression models to identify the top genotypes with the best genetic breeding values across three localities on the Colombian coast. We comparatively analyzed several regression approaches, and the model with the best performance for all traits and localities was BayesC. Also, we compared the utilization of all markers and only those determined as associated by a priori genome-wide association studies (GWAS) models. Better prediction ability with the complete SNP set was indicative of missing heritability as part of GWAS reconstructions. Furthermore, optimal SNP sets per trait and locality were determined as per the top 500 most explicative markers according to their β regression effects. These 500 SNPs, on average, overlapped in 5.24% across localities, which reinforced the locality-dependent nature of polygenic adaptation. Finally, we retrieved the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) and selected the top 10 genotypes for each trait and locality as part of a recommendation scheme targeting narrow adaption in the Caribbean. After validation in field conditions and for screening stability, candidate genotypes and SNPs may be used in further introgressive breeding cycles for adaptation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Breeding and Genetics: New Findings and Perspectives)
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13 pages, 1242 KiB  
Article
Radiotherapy-Induced Lung Cancer Risk in Breast Cancer Patients: A Retrospective Comparison of Hypofractionated and Standard Fractionated 3D-CRT Treatments
by Alessia D’Anna, Giuseppe Stella, Elisa Bonanno, Giuseppina Rita Borzì, Nina Cavalli, Andrea Girlando, Anna Maria Gueli, Martina Pace, Lucia Zirone and Carmelo Marino
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(15), 8436; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158436 - 29 Jul 2025
Viewed by 268
Abstract
Breast-conserving surgery followed by external beam Radiotherapy (RT) is a standard approach for early-stage Breast Cancer (BC). This retrospective study aims to determine the risk of RT-induced lung cancer for both standard and hypofractionated treatments. Fifty-eight Sicilian women treated at Humanitas Istituto Clinico [...] Read more.
Breast-conserving surgery followed by external beam Radiotherapy (RT) is a standard approach for early-stage Breast Cancer (BC). This retrospective study aims to determine the risk of RT-induced lung cancer for both standard and hypofractionated treatments. Fifty-eight Sicilian women treated at Humanitas Istituto Clinico Catanese (Misterbianco, Italy) between 2015 and 2021 with standard fractionated 3D-CRT (50 Gy in 2 Gy/fraction) were included. All treatment plans were designed using a hypofractionated schedule (42.56 Gy in 2.66 Gy/fraction). An Eclipse™ plug-in script was developed using the Eclipse Scripting Application Programming Interface (ESAPI) to extract patient and treatment data from the Treatment Planning System and compute Organ At Risk (OAR) volume, Organ Equivalent Dose (OED), Excess Absolute Risk (EAR), and Lifetime Attributable Risk (LAR) using the Schneider Mechanistic Model and reference data from regional populations, A-bomb survivors, and patients with Hodgkin’s Disease (HD). The OED distributions exhibited a statistically significant shift toward higher values in standard fractionated plans (p < 0.01, one-tailed paired Student’s t-test), leading to increased EAR and LAR. These results indicate that hypofractionated treatment may lower the risk of radiation-induced lung cancer. The feasibility of a priori risk estimation was evaluated by integrating the script into the TPS, allowing rapid comparison of SF and HF plans during planning. Full article
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25 pages, 4318 KiB  
Article
Real Reactive Micropolar Spherically Symmetric Fluid Flow and Thermal Explosion: Modelling and Existence
by Angela Bašić-Šiško
Mathematics 2025, 13(15), 2448; https://doi.org/10.3390/math13152448 - 29 Jul 2025
Viewed by 171
Abstract
A model for the flow and thermal explosion of a micropolar gas is investigated, assuming the equation of state for a real gas. This model describes the dynamics of a gas mixture (fuel and oxidant) undergoing a one-step irreversible chemical reaction. The real [...] Read more.
A model for the flow and thermal explosion of a micropolar gas is investigated, assuming the equation of state for a real gas. This model describes the dynamics of a gas mixture (fuel and oxidant) undergoing a one-step irreversible chemical reaction. The real gas model is particularly suitable in this context because it more accurately reflects reality under extreme conditions, such as high temperatures and high pressures. Micropolarity introduces local rotational dynamic effects of particles dispersed within the gas mixture. In this paper, we first derive the initial-boundary value system of partial differential equations (PDEs) under the assumption of spherical symmetry and homogeneous boundary conditions. We explain the underlying physical relationships and then construct a corresponding approximate system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) using the Faedo–Galerkin projection. The existence of solutions for the full PDE model is established by analyzing the limit of the solutions of the ODE system using a priori estimates and compactness theory. Additionally, we propose a numerical scheme for the problem based on the same approximate system. Finally, numerical simulations are performed and discussed in both physical and mathematical contexts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fluid Mechanics, Numerical Analysis, and Dynamical Systems)
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21 pages, 2514 KiB  
Article
Investigations into Picture Defogging Techniques Based on Dark Channel Prior and Retinex Theory
by Lihong Yang, Zhi Zeng, Hang Ge, Yao Li, Shurui Ge and Kai Hu
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(15), 8319; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158319 - 26 Jul 2025
Viewed by 179
Abstract
To address the concerns of contrast deterioration, detail loss, and color distortion in images produced under haze conditions in scenarios such as intelligent driving and remote sensing detection, an algorithm for image defogging that combines Retinex theory and the dark channel prior is [...] Read more.
To address the concerns of contrast deterioration, detail loss, and color distortion in images produced under haze conditions in scenarios such as intelligent driving and remote sensing detection, an algorithm for image defogging that combines Retinex theory and the dark channel prior is proposed in this paper. The method involves building a two-stage optimization framework: in the first stage, global contrast enhancement is achieved by Retinex preprocessing, which effectively improves the detail information regarding the dark area and the accuracy of the transmittance map and atmospheric light intensity estimation; in the second stage, an a priori compensation model for the dark channel is constructed, and a depth-map-guided transmittance correction mechanism is introduced to obtain a refined transmittance map. At the same time, the atmospheric light intensity is accurately calculated by the Otsu algorithm and edge constraints, which effectively suppresses the halo artifacts and color deviation of the sky region in the dark channel a priori defogging algorithm. The experiments based on self-collected data and public datasets show that the algorithm in this paper presents better detail preservation ability (the visible edge ratio is minimally improved by 0.1305) and color reproduction (the saturated pixel ratio is reduced to about 0) in the subjective evaluation, and the average gradient ratio of the objective indexes reaches a maximum value of 3.8009, which is improved by 36–56% compared with the classical DCP and Tarel algorithms. The method provides a robust image defogging solution for computer vision systems under complex meteorological conditions. Full article
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19 pages, 890 KiB  
Article
Finite Element Simulation for Fractional Allen–Cahn Equation with Regularized Logarithmic Free Energy
by Feng Wang and Huanzhen Chen
Fractal Fract. 2025, 9(8), 488; https://doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract9080488 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 225
Abstract
This paper is focused on developing a Galerkin finite element framework for the fractional Allen–Cahn equation with regularized logarithmic potential over the Rd (d=1,2,3) domain, where the regularization of the singular potential extends beyond [...] Read more.
This paper is focused on developing a Galerkin finite element framework for the fractional Allen–Cahn equation with regularized logarithmic potential over the Rd (d=1,2,3) domain, where the regularization of the singular potential extends beyond the classical double-well formulation. A fully discrete finite element scheme is developed using a k-th-order finite element space for spatial approximation and a backward Euler scheme for the temporal discretization of a regularized system. The existence and uniqueness of numerical solutions are rigorously established by applying Brouwer’s fixed-point theorem. Moreover, the proposed numerical framework is shown to preserve the discrete energy dissipation law analytically, while a priori error estimates are derived. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to verify the theoretical results and the inherent physical property, such as phase separation phenomenon and coarsening processes. The results show that the fractional Allen–Cahn model provides enhanced capability in capturing phase transition characteristics compared to its classical equation. Full article
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19 pages, 2726 KiB  
Article
Lightweight Detection of Inserted Chirp Symbols in Radio Transmission from Commercial UAVs
by Krzysztof K. Cwalina, Piotr Rajchowski and Jarosław Sadowski
Sensors 2025, 25(15), 4552; https://doi.org/10.3390/s25154552 - 23 Jul 2025
Viewed by 241
Abstract
Most small, commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) maintain continuous two-way radio communication with the controller. Signals emitted by the UAVs can be used for detection of their presence, but as these drones use unlicensed frequency bands that are shared with many other wireless [...] Read more.
Most small, commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) maintain continuous two-way radio communication with the controller. Signals emitted by the UAVs can be used for detection of their presence, but as these drones use unlicensed frequency bands that are shared with many other wireless communication devices, UAV detection should rely on the unique characteristics of the transmitted signals. In this article, low-complexity methods for the detection of chirp symbols in downlink transmission from a UAV produced by DJI are proposed. The presented methods were developed with focus on the ability to detect presence of chirp symbols in radio transmission without a priori knowledge or need for center frequency estimation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue UAV Detection, Classification, and Tracking)
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27 pages, 5938 KiB  
Article
Noise-Adaptive GNSS/INS Fusion Positioning for Autonomous Driving in Complex Environments
by Xingyang Feng, Mianhao Qiu, Tao Wang, Xinmin Yao, Hua Cong and Yu Zhang
Vehicles 2025, 7(3), 77; https://doi.org/10.3390/vehicles7030077 - 22 Jul 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 400
Abstract
Accurate and reliable multi-scene positioning remains a critical challenge in autonomous driving systems, as conventional fixed-noise fusion strategies struggle to handle the dynamic error characteristics of heterogeneous sensors in complex operational environments. This paper proposes a novel noise-adaptive fusion framework integrating Global Navigation [...] Read more.
Accurate and reliable multi-scene positioning remains a critical challenge in autonomous driving systems, as conventional fixed-noise fusion strategies struggle to handle the dynamic error characteristics of heterogeneous sensors in complex operational environments. This paper proposes a novel noise-adaptive fusion framework integrating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) measurements. Our key innovation lies in developing a dual noise estimation model that synergizes priori weighting with posterior variance compensation. Specifically, we establish an a priori weighting model for satellite pseudorange errors based on elevation angles and signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), complemented by a Helmert variance component estimation for posterior refinement. For INS error modeling, we derive a bias instability noise accumulation model through Allan variance analysis. These adaptive noise estimates dynamically update both process and observation noise covariance matrices in our Error-State Kalman Filter (ESKF) implementation, enabling real-time calibration of GNSS and INS contributions. Comprehensive field experiments demonstrate two key advantages: (1) The proposed noise estimation model achieves 37.7% higher accuracy in quantifying GNSS single-point positioning uncertainties compared to conventional elevation-based weighting; (2) in unstructured environments with intermittent signal outages, the fusion system maintains an average absolute trajectory error (ATE) of less than 0.6 m, outperforming state-of-the-art fixed-weight fusion methods by 36.71% in positioning consistency. These results validate the framework’s capability to autonomously balance sensor reliability under dynamic environmental conditions, significantly enhancing positioning robustness for autonomous vehicles. Full article
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15 pages, 2610 KiB  
Article
CT-Based Radiomics for a priori Predicting Response to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Lung Adenocarcinoma
by Erika Z. Chung, Laurentius O. Osapoetra, Patrick Cheung, Ian Poon, Alexander V. Louie, May Tsao, Yee Ung, Mateus T. Cunha, Ines B. Menjak and Gregory J. Czarnota
Cancers 2025, 17(14), 2386; https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers17142386 - 18 Jul 2025
Viewed by 295
Abstract
The standard treatment for patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is concurrent chemoradiation. However, clinical responses are heterogeneous and generally not known until after the completion of therapy. Multiple studies have investigated imaging predictors (radiomics) for different cancer histologies, but [...] Read more.
The standard treatment for patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is concurrent chemoradiation. However, clinical responses are heterogeneous and generally not known until after the completion of therapy. Multiple studies have investigated imaging predictors (radiomics) for different cancer histologies, but little exists for NSCLC. The objective of this study was to develop a multivariate CT-based radiomics model to a priori predict responses to definitive chemoradiation in patients with lung adenocarcinoma. Methods: Patients diagnosed with locally advanced unresectable lung adenocarcinoma who had undergone chemoradiotherapy followed by at least one dose of maintenance durvalumab were included. The PyRadiomics Python library was used to determine statistical, morphological, and textural features from normalized patient pre-treatment CT images and their wavelet-filtered versions. A nested leave-one-out cross-validation was used for model building and evaluation. Results: Fifty-seven patients formed the study cohort. The clinical stage was IIIA-C in 98% of patients. All but one received 6000–6600 cGy of radiation in 30–33 fractions. All received concurrent platinum-based chemotherapy. Based on RECIST 1.1, 20 (35%) patients were classified as responders (R) to chemoradiation and 37 (65%) patients as non-responders (NR). A three-feature model based on a KNN k = 1 machine learning classifier was found to have the best performance, achieving a recall, specificity, accuracy, balanced accuracy, precision, negative predictive value, F1-score, and area under the curve of 84%, 70%, 80%, 77%, 84%, 70%, 84%, and 0.77, respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest that a CT-based radiomics model may be able to predict chemoradiation response for lung adenocarcinoma patients with estimated accuracies of 77–84%. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Cancer Therapy)
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21 pages, 5159 KiB  
Article
Gravity-Aided Navigation Underwater Positioning Confidence Study Based on Bayesian Estimation of the Interquartile Range Method
by Jiasheng Zou, Tijing Cai and Shiliang Zhao
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(13), 2137; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17132137 - 22 Jun 2025
Viewed by 309
Abstract
In this study, we improve the matching accuracy of underwater gravity-matching navigation and use this method to further analyze the confidence of the matching accuracy. An interquartile range (IQR)-matching approach based on Bayesian estimation, referred to as BEIQR, is proposed in this study. [...] Read more.
In this study, we improve the matching accuracy of underwater gravity-matching navigation and use this method to further analyze the confidence of the matching accuracy. An interquartile range (IQR)-matching approach based on Bayesian estimation, referred to as BEIQR, is proposed in this study. The method uses the correlation of the Terrain Contour Matching (TERCOM) algorithm as the a priori estimation and calculates the probability weights of the points to be matched by Bayesian a posteriori probability estimation. Additionally, it analyzes the distribution of the to-be-matched points to obtain the final matching results based on the accuracy requirements. Furthermore, a novel interquartile range confidence analysis method based on Bayesian estimation (BEIQRC) is proposed to assess the matching results. This method defines the matching point as the center and the accuracy requirement as the radius, analyzing the measurement weight and distance weight of the to-be-matched points within the accuracy circle. Based on this analysis, the final matching point is projected with the true position probability. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is independent of the preorder matching results. By utilizing data from a single matching process, it effectively obtains the confidence of the matching results, providing a reliable reference for the accuracy assessment of gravity-matching outcomes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental Remote Sensing)
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16 pages, 319 KiB  
Article
Sex Specificities in the Association Between Diet, Physical Activity, and Body Composition Among the Elderly: A Cross-Sectional Study in Florence, Italy
by Nora de Bonfioli Cavalcabo’, Luigi Facchini, Melania Assedi, Ilaria Ermini, Flavia Cozzolino, Emma Bortolotti, Calogero Saieva, Davide Biagiotti, Elisa Pastore, Benedetta Bendinelli, Giovanna Masala and Saverio Caini
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2025, 22(7), 975; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22070975 - 20 Jun 2025
Viewed by 485
Abstract
The rising prevalence of elderly obesity in developed countries poses a public health challenge, since body composition changes during aging are associated with higher risks of chronic diseases. We cross-sectionally explored the relationship between diet, physical activity, and sex-specific differences in body composition [...] Read more.
The rising prevalence of elderly obesity in developed countries poses a public health challenge, since body composition changes during aging are associated with higher risks of chronic diseases. We cross-sectionally explored the relationship between diet, physical activity, and sex-specific differences in body composition among 378 elderly previously enrolled in the Florence European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Information on dietary habits and lifestyle was collected through validated questionnaires. Adherence to the Italian Mediterranean Index (IMI), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and Greek Modified Mediterranean Diet (GMMD) a priori dietary patterns was calculated. Anthropometric measures were taken by trained personnel, and body composition parameters were estimated via bioelectrical impedance. In age- and energy-intake-adjusted regression models, adherence to the DASH and IMI patterns was associated with healthier body composition among women, while no significant relationship emerged among men. Fitness activities and total recreational physical activity revealed positive associations with healthier body composition (lower % fat mass, higher % muscle mass, and reduced waist circumference) in both sexes. These findings highlight the synergistic effect of diet and physical activity on body composition in the elderly and underscore the need for sex-specific interventions for promoting healthy aging. Full article
12 pages, 960 KiB  
Article
Intravenous Clarithromycin in Critically Ill Adults: A Population Pharmacokinetic Study
by Reya V. Shah, Karin Kipper, Emma H. Baker, Charlotte I. S. Barker, Isobel Oldfield, Harriet C. Davidson, Cleodie C. Swire, Barbara J. Philips, Atholl Johnston, Andrew Rhodes, Mike Sharland, Joseph F. Standing and Dagan O. Lonsdale
Antibiotics 2025, 14(6), 559; https://doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics14060559 - 30 May 2025
Viewed by 698
Abstract
Background: Clarithromycin is a commonly used macrolide antibiotic. Infection is a major source of mortality and morbidity in critical care units. Pharmacokinetics may vary during critical illness and suboptimal antimicrobial exposure has been shown to be associated with treatment failure. The pharmacokinetics of [...] Read more.
Background: Clarithromycin is a commonly used macrolide antibiotic. Infection is a major source of mortality and morbidity in critical care units. Pharmacokinetics may vary during critical illness and suboptimal antimicrobial exposure has been shown to be associated with treatment failure. The pharmacokinetics of intravenous clarithromycin in critical illness have not previously been described. Methods: Pharmacokinetic, clinical and demographic data were collected from critically ill adults receiving intravenous clarithromycin. Drug concentrations were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM version 7.5.1. Allometric weight scaling was added, and periods of renal replacement therapy were excluded a priori. Simulations of 10,000 patients were performed to assess pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) target attainment. Results: The analysis included 121 samples taken from 19 participants. A two-compartment model was found to provide the best fit. The addition of covariates did not improve model fit. There was no evidence of auto-inhibition in this population. Population parameter estimates of clearance and volume of distribution were lower than previously reported, with high interindividual variability. Simulations suggested reasonable pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) target attainment with current dosing regimens for most organisms that clarithromycin is used to treat with known clinical breakpoints. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to describe the pharmacokinetics of intravenous clarithromycin in humans. Although our simulations suggest reasonable target attainment, further investigation into appropriate PKPD targets and clinical breakpoints for clarithromycin may enable dosing optimisation in this population. Full article
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19 pages, 2588 KiB  
Article
Optimizing a Bayesian Method for Estimating the Hurst Exponent in Behavioral Sciences
by Madhur Mangalam, Taylor J. Wilson, Joel H. Sommerfeld and Aaron D. Likens
Axioms 2025, 14(6), 421; https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms14060421 - 29 May 2025
Viewed by 407
Abstract
The Bayesian Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) method estimates the Hurst exponent of a time series more accurately than the age-old Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), especially when the time series is short. However, this advantage comes at the cost of computation time. The computation time increases [...] Read more.
The Bayesian Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) method estimates the Hurst exponent of a time series more accurately than the age-old Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), especially when the time series is short. However, this advantage comes at the cost of computation time. The computation time increases exponentially with the time series length N, easily exceeding several hours for N=1024, limiting the utility of the HK method in real-time paradigms, such as biofeedback and brain–computer interfaces. To address this issue, we have provided data on the estimation accuracy of the Hurst exponent H for synthetic time series as a function of a priori known values of H, the time series length, and the simulated sample size from the posterior distribution n—a critical step in the Bayesian estimation method. The simulated sample from the posterior distribution as small as n=25 suffices to estimate H with reasonable accuracy for a time series as short as 256. Using a larger simulated sample from the posterior distribution—that is, n>50—provides only a marginal gain in accuracy, which might not be worth trading off with computational efficiency. Results from empirical time series on stride-to-stride intervals in humans walking and running on a treadmill and overground corroborate these findings—specifically, allowing reproduction of the rank order of H^ for time series containing as few as 32 data points. We recommend balancing the simulated sample size from the posterior distribution of H with the user’s computational resources, advocating for a minimum of n=50. Larger sample sizes can be considered based on time and resource constraints when employing the HK process to estimate the Hurst exponent. The present results allow the reader to make judgments to optimize the Bayesian estimation of the Hurst exponent for real-time applications. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Perspectives in Mathematical Statistics)
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