Search Results (21)

Desert plants in arid regions are facing escalating challenges from global warming, underscoring the urgent need to predict shifts in the distribution and habitats of dominant species under future climate scenarios. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to project changes in the potential suitable habitats of three keystone desert species in Xinjiang—Halostachys capsica (M. Bieb.) C. A. Mey (Caryophyllales: Amaranthaceae), Haloxylon ammodendron (C. A. Mey.) Bunge (Caryophyllales: Amaranthaceae), and Karelinia caspia (Pall.) Less (Asterales: Asteraceae)—under varying climatic conditions. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) exceeded 0.9 for all three species training datasets, indicating high predictive accuracy. Currently, Halos. caspica predominantly occupies mid-to-low elevation alluvial plains along the Tarim Basin and Tianshan Mountains, with a suitable area of 145.88 × 10⁴ km², while Halox. ammodendrum is primarily distributed across the Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and mid-elevation alluvial plains and aeolian landforms at the convergence zones of the Altai, Tianshan, and Kunlun Mountains, covering 109.55 × 10⁴ km². K. caspia thrives in mid-to-low elevation alluvial plains and low-elevation alluvial fans in the Tarim Basin, western Taklamakan Desert, and Junggar–Tianshan transition regions, with a suitable area of 95.75 × 10⁴ km². Among the key bioclimatic drivers, annual mean temperature was the most critical factor for Halos. caspica, precipitation of the coldest quarter for Halox. ammodendrum, and precipitation of the wettest month for K. caspia. Future projections revealed that under climate warming and increased humidity, suitable habitats for Halos. caspica would expand in all of the 2050s scenarios but decline by the 2070s, whereas Halox. ammodendrum habitats would decrease consistently across all scenarios over the next 40 years. In contrast, the suitable habitat area of K. caspia would remain nearly stable. These projections provide critical insights for formulating climate adaptation strategies to enhance soil–water conservation and sustainable desertification control in Xinjiang. Full article

The China–Mongolia arid region adjacent to the Altai Mountain (CMA) has a sensitive ecosystem that relies heavily on both terrestrial water (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS). However, during the 2003–2016 period, the CMA experienced significant glacier retreat, lake shrinkage, and grassland degradation. To illuminate the TWS and GWS dynamics in the CMA and the dominant driving factors, we employed high-resolution (0.1°) GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data generated through random forest (RF) combined with residual correction. The downscaled data at a 0.1° resolution illustrate the spatial heterogeneity of TWS and GWS depletion. The highest TWS and GWS decline rates were both on the north slope of the Tianshan River Basin (NTRB) of the Junggar Basin of Northwestern China (JBNWC) (27.96 mm/yr and −32.98 mm/yr, respectively). Human impact played a primary role in TWS decreases in the JBNWC, with a relative contribution rate of 62.22% compared to the climatic contribution (37.78%). A notable shift—from climatic (2002–2010) to anthropogenic factors (2011–2020)—was observed as the primary driver of TWS decline in the Great Lakes Depression region of western Mongolia (GLDWM). To maintain ecological stability and promote sustainable regional development, effective action is urgently required to save essential TWS from further depletion. Full article

Landslides frequently occur in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China due to its complex geological environment, posing serious risks to human safety and economic stability. Existing studies widely use machine learning models for landslide susceptibility prediction. However, they often fail to capture the threshold and interaction effects among environmental factors, limiting their ability to accurately identify high-risk zones. To address this gap, this study employed a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model to identify critical thresholds and interaction effects among disaster-causing factors, while mapping the spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility based on 20 covariates. The performance of this model was compared with that of a support vector machine and deep neural network models. Results showed that the GBDT model achieved superior performance, with the highest AUC and recall values among the tested models. After applying clustering algorithms for non-landslide sample selection, the GBDT model maintained a high recall value of 0.963, demonstrating its robustness against imbalanced datasets. The GBDT model identified that 8.86% of Xinjiang’s total area exhibits extremely high or high landslide susceptibility, mainly concentrated in the Tianshan and Altai mountain ranges. Lithology, precipitation, profile curvature, the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and vertical deformation were identified as the primary contributing factors. Threshold effects were observed in the relationships between these factors and landslide susceptibility. The probability of landslide occurrence increased sharply when precipitation exceeded 2500 mm, vertical deformation was greater than 0 mm a⁻¹, or the MNDWI values were extreme (<−0.4, >0.2). Additionally, this study confirmed bivariate interaction effects. Most interactions between factors exhibited positive effects, suggesting that combining two factors enhances classification performance compared with using each factor independently. This finding highlights the intricate and interdependent nature of these factors in landslide susceptibility. These findings emphasize the necessity of incorporating threshold and interaction effects in landslide susceptibility assessments, offering practical insights for disaster prevention and mitigation. Full article

Artificial water bodies in Central Asia offer unique environments in which to study plankton diversity influenced by topographic barriers. However, the complexity of these ecosystems and limited comprehensive studies in the region challenge our understanding. In this study, we systematically investigated the water environment parameters and phytoplankton community structure by surveying 14 artificial waters on the southern side of the Altai Mountains and the northern and southern sides of the Tianshan Mountains in the Xinjiang region. The survey covered physical and nutrient indicators, and the results showed noticeable spatial differences between waters in different regions. The temperature, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus of artificial water in the southern Altai Mountains vary greatly. In contrast, the waters in the northern Tianshan Mountains have more consistent physical indicators. The results of phytoplankton identification showed that the phytoplankton communities in different regions are somewhat different, with diatom species being the dominant taxon. The cluster analysis and the non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) results also confirmed the variability of the phytoplankton communities in the areas. The variance partitioning analysis (VPA) results showed that climatic and environmental factors can explain some of the variability of the observed data. Nevertheless, the residual values indicated the presence of other unmeasured factors or the influence of stochasticity. This study provides a scientific basis for regional water resource management and environmental protection. Full article

The study of the expansion potential of artificial oases based on remote sensing data is of great significance for the rational allocation of water resources and urban planning in arid areas. Based on the spatio-temporal relationship between morphogenetic landform types and the development of artificial oases in Xinjiang, this study explored the development pattern of artificial oases in the past 30 years by using trend analysis and centroid migration analysis, constructing a series of landform–artificial oasis change indices, and investigating the suitability of different landforms for the development of artificial oases based on geomorphological location by adopting a hierarchical clustering method. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the area of artificial oases in the whole territory continued to increase, with significant expansion to the south from 2005 to 2010. (2) Six categories of landform types for artificial oasis development were created based on the clustering results. Of these, 7.39% and 6.15% of the area’s geomorphological types belonged to the first and second suitability classes, respectively. (3) The optimal scale for analyzing the suitability of landforms for the development of artificial oases over the past 30 years in the whole area was 8 km, which could explain more than 96% of the changes in the growth of artificial oases. The distribution of landforms of first- and second-class suitability within the 8 km buffer zone of an artificial oasis in the year 2020 was 10.55% and 9.90%, respectively, and landforms of first-class suitability were mainly concentrated in the near plain side of the urban agglomerations located on the northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and the urban agglomerations at the southern edge of Altai Mountains. This study quantified the potential of different geomorphological types for the development of artificial oases and provided a basis for site selection in future artificial oasis planning and urban construction. Full article

In the Xinjiang region, the sustainable management of water resources, energy, and food is crucial for regional development. This study establishes a coupling evaluation index for energy–food–water (EFW) systems from the perspectives of supply, consumption, and efficiency. Using an integrated EFM-CDD-RDD-CCDM approach, an assessment of the coupling and coordination levels of the EFW systems in 14 cities within Xinjiang was conducted for the period of 2004 to 2020. Additionally, the method of obstacle degree identification was utilized to determine the main barriers affecting the EFW systems. Key findings included the following. (1) In terms of individual system coordination indices, the water resource systems exhibited overall higher coordination (ranging from 0.30 to 0.72) with comparatively minor spatial variability, while the energy (from 0.18 to 0.81) and food (from 0.12 to 0.83) systems showed greater temporal and spatial fluctuations. From 2004 to 2020, improvements were observed in the coordination of food and water resource systems, whereas a decline was noted in the coordination of the energy subsystem. (2) Prior to 2011, the coupling of food–water and energy–food systems showed an upward trend, whereas the energy–water coupling decreased annually by 2.62%, further highlighting the tensions between energy development and water resource constraints in Xinjiang. (3) The comprehensive coupling coordination index of the Xinjiang EFW systems ranged between 0.59 and 0.80; between 2004 and 2020, there was an oscillatory increase. From 2004 to 2016, the coupling and coordination degree across the municipalities generally improved, with the regions on the western side and southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the Altai Mountains, and the northwestern edge of the Junggar Basin exhibiting the highest levels, followed by the three prefectures in southern Xinjiang. (4) The EFW obstacle degree posed by the food systems in Xinjiang and its divisions showed a decreasing trend from 2004 to 2020, with the energy system identified as the main factor affecting the coupling and coordination degrees of the EFW systems (increasing by 44% to 52%). Therefore, it is imperative to accelerate the energy transition and optimization in the lead energy development and production areas of Xinjiang. This research provides a scientific basis for Xinjiang’s sustainable development strategies and highlights potential directions for the future optimization of resource management. Full article

Examining the features of vegetation change and analyzing its driving forces across an extensive time series in Xinjiang are pivotal for the ecological environment. This research can offer a crucial point of reference for regional ecological conservation endeavors. We calculated the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) using MOD13Q1 data accessed through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. To discern the characteristics of vegetation changes and forecast future trends, we employed time series analysis, coefficient of variation, and the Hurst exponent. The correlation between climate factors and FVC was investigated through correlation analysis. Simultaneously, to determine the relative impact of meteorological change and anthropogenic actions on FVC, we utilized multiple regression residual analysis. Furthermore, adhering to China’s ecological functional zone classification, Xinjiang was segmented into five ecological zones: R1 Altai Mountains-Junggar West Mountain Forest and Grassland Ecoregion, R2 Junggar Basin Desert Ecoregion, R3 Tianshan Mountains Mountain Forest and Grassland Ecoregion, R4 Tarim Basin-Eastern Frontier Desert Ecoregion, and R5 Pamir-Kunlun Mountains-Altan Mountains Alpine Desert and Grassland Ecoregion. A comparative analysis of these five regions was subsequently conducted. The results showed the following: (1) During the first two decades of the 21st century, the overall FVC in Xinjiang primarily exhibited a trend of growth, exhibiting a rate of increase of 4 × 10⁻⁴ y⁻¹. The multi-year average FVC was 0.223. The mean value of the multi-year FVC was 0.223, and the mean values of different ecological zones showed the following order: R1 > R3 > R2 > R5 > R4. (2) The predominant spatial pattern of FVC across Xinjiang’s landscape is characterized by higher coverage in the northwest and lower in the southeast. In this region, 66.63% of the terrain exhibits deteriorating vegetation, while 11% of the region exhibits a notable rise in plant growth. Future changes in FVC will be dominated by a decreasing trend. Regarding the coefficient of variation outcomes, a minor variation, representing 42.12% of the total, is noticeable; the mean coefficient of variation stands at 0.2786. The stability across varied ecological zones follows the order: R1 > R3 > R2 > R4 > R5. (3) Factors that have a facilitating effect on vegetation FVC included relative humidity, daylight hours, and precipitation, with relative humidity having a greater influence, while factors that have a hindering effect on vegetation FVC included air temperature and wind speed, with wind speed having a greater influence. (4) Vegetation alterations are primarily influenced by climate change, while human activities play a secondary role, contributing 56.93% and 43.07%, respectively. This research underscores the necessity for continued surveillance of vegetation dynamics and the enhancement of policies focused on habitat renewal and the safeguarding of vegetation in Xinjiang. Full article

Arid regions are considered to be among the most ecologically fragile and highly sensitive to environmental change globally, and land use and land cover conditions in the region directly influence large-scale ecosystem processes. Currently, thanks to diverse remote sensing platforms, geographers have developed an array of land cover products. However, there are differences between these products due to variations in spatio-temporal resolutions. In this context, assessing the accuracy and consistency of different land cover products is crucial for rationalizing the selection of land cover products to study global or regional environmental changes. In this study, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) is taken as the study area, and the consistency and performance (type area deviation, spatial consistency, accuracy assessment, and other indexes) of the five land cover products (GlobeLand30, FROM_GLC30, CLCD, GLC_FCS30, and ESRI) were compared and analyzed. The results of the study show that (1) the GlobeLand30 product has the highest overall accuracy in the study area, with an overall accuracy of 84.06%, followed by ESA with 75.57%, while CLCD has the lowest overall accuracy of 70.05%. (2) The consistency between GlobeLand30 and CLCD (area correlation coefficient of 0.99) was higher than that among the other products. (3) Among the five products, the highest consistency was found for water bodies and permanent snow and ice, followed by bare land. In contrast, the consistency of these five products for grassland and forest was relatively low. (4) The full-consistency area accounts for 49.01% of the total study area. They were mainly distributed in areas with relatively homogeneous land cover types, such as the north and south of the Tianshan Mountains, which are dominated by bare land and cropland. In contrast, areas of inconsistency make up only 0.03% and are mostly found in heterogeneous areas, like the transitional zones with mixed land cover types in the Altai Mountains and Tianshan Mountains, or in areas with complex terrain. In terms of meeting practical user needs, GlobeLand30 offers the best comprehensive performance. GLC_FCS30 is more suitable for studies related to forests, while FROM_GLC30 and ESRI demonstrate greater advantages in identifying permanent ice and snow, whereas the performance of CLCD is generally average. Full article

While the use of large tropical trees to predict aboveground biomass (AGB) in forests has previously been studied, the applicability of this approach in arid regions remains unquantified. In the natural forests of arid mountains of Northwestern China, this study collected individual tree data from 105 plots across 11 sites through field measurements. The objective was to assess the feasibility of using large trees for predicting plot AGB in these natural forests of arid mountains. This entailed determining the contribution of large trees, based on which a plot AGB prediction model was constructed. This study also aimed to identify the optimal number of large trees needed for accurate AGB prediction. The findings indicate that within the natural forests of arid mountains, only seven large trees (approximately 12% of the trees in a plot) are necessary to account for over 50% of the plot AGB. By measuring 18 large trees within a plot, this study achieved a precise plot AGB estimation, resulting in a model rRMSE of 0.27. The regression fit R² for the predicted AGB and the estimated AGB was 0.79, effectively aligning the predicted and measured AGB. In the Tianshan Mountains’ natural forests, the prediction model yielded further improvements with an rRMSE of 0.13 and a remarkable regression R² of 0.92 between predicted and estimated AGB. However, due to variances in tree size distribution and tree species biomass, the Altai Mountains’ natural forest was found to be unsuitable for predicting plot AGB using large trees. This study establishes that large trees can effectively represent plot AGB in the natural forests of arid mountains. Employing forest surveys or remote sensing to collect data from a few large trees instead of the entire tree population enables accurate plot AGB prediction. This research serves as the initial quantification of large tree utilization for plot AGB prediction in the natural forests of arid mountains, carrying substantial implications for future arid forest inventories, carbon accounting, and the formulation of prudent conservation strategies. Full article

Rare and vulnerable endemic plants represent different evolutionary units that occur at different times, and protecting these species is a key issue in biological protection. Understanding the impact of the history of endangered plant populations on their genetic diversity helps to reveal evolutionary history and is crucial for guiding conservation efforts. Saussurea involucrata, a perennial alpine species mainly distributed in the Tianshan Mountains, is famous for its medicinal value but has become endangered due to over-exploitation. In the present study, we employed both nuclear and chloroplast DNA sequences to investigate the genetic distribution pattern and evolutionary history of S. involucrata. A total of 270 individuals covering nine S. involucrata populations were sampled for the amplification and sequencing of nrDNA Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) and chloroplast trnL-trnF, matK and ndhF-rpl32 sequences. Via calculation, we identified 7 nuclear and 12 plastid haplotypes. Among the nine populations, GL and BA were characterized by high haplotype diversity, whereas BG revealed the lowest haplotype diversity. Molecular dating estimations suggest that divergence among S. involucrata populations occurred around 0.75 Ma, coinciding with the uplift of Tianshan Mountains. Our results reveal that both isolation-by-distance (IBD) and isolation-by-resistance (IBR) have promoted genetic differentiation among populations of S. involucrata. The results from the ecological niche modeling analyses show a more suitable habitat for S. involucrata in the past than at present, indicating a historical distribution contraction of the species. This study provides new insight into understanding the genetic differentiation of S. involucrata, as well as the theoretical basis for conserving this species. Full article

The Three-North Shelterbelt Project is the largest ecological engineering initiative in China to date, distinguished by its immense scale, extended construction period, and widespread benefits for the population. The gross ecosystem product (GEP) serves as a crucial indicator for assessing ecological benefits. This study focuses on the Three Northern Protection Forest Project Area, utilizing GEP calculations for the years 2000 to 2020. This study evaluates variations in the production values of different ecosystem services to reflect the ecological conservation benefits of the restoration project. Additionally, it analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and trends of the GEP calculations, offering data references and decision support for the enduring efficacy of ecological restoration projects. The findings are as follows. (i) Between 2000 and 2020, the GEP of the Three-North region exhibited significant growth with continuous enhancement of various ecosystem service functions; the most substantial rate of change was observed in the water conservation function, followed by carbon sequestration and oxygen release, soil retention, windbreak and sand fixation, flood regulation, and environmental purification functions. (ii) The per-unit area value of different ecosystem types generally increased; the forest ecosystem displayed the largest growth rate at 61.18%, followed by shrubland ecosystems at 49.84%. (iii) The spatial distribution of ecosystem service in the Three-North region displayed a clustering trend alongside notable spatial heterogeneity. High-high clustering zones were identified in areas such as the Tianshan Mountains, Altai Mountains, Qilian Mountains, and Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains. Conversely, low-low clustering areas were scattered, forming patchy distributions in regions like the Tarim Basin, northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the Hexi Corridor. This study, by analyzing the gross ecosystem product of the Three-North Shelterbelt Project region, unveils the spatial distribution characteristics, trends, and variations in ecosystem service values over the past two decades. It provides data support and decision guidance for the long-term efficacy of future ecological conservation and restoration projects. This study incorporates the GEP accounting method into the assessment of the effectiveness of major conservation projects. Compared to the traditional methods of effectiveness assessment, this represents a significant exploration and innovation. Full article

Stable isotopes (¹⁸O/¹⁶O and ²H/¹H) are fingerprints of water molecules and thus can be used to gain insight on water circulation. Especially, the factors controlling the isotopic composition of precipitation should be identified because they act as baseline determinants of the isotopic variations of surface water and groundwater. Here, using the HYSPLIT model, we attribute observed isotope variations to different moisture sources and characterize the isotopic composition of meteoric precipitation in Northwest China. Results show that the westerlies play a dominant role across the region throughout the year, while other moisture sources only affect some parts of the region during a specific season, i.e., Arctic airflow only affects the Altay Mountains as far as the Middle Tianshan Mountains; the East Asia Monsoon only affects the region east of 100° E longitude during the summer; and summer rainfall of local origin may contribute to the precipitation budget of basin areas. Given the different moisture sources across Northwest China, a local meteoric water line (NWMWL) of δ²H = 6.8δ¹⁸O − 1.6 is observed. Our findings not only can provide valuable insights into the mechanism of precipitation isotope fractionation in Northwest China but also can contribute to a better understanding of regional climate and hydrological studies. Full article

Using Earth observation to accurately extract snow phenology changes is of great significance for deepening the understanding of the ecological environment and hydrological process, agricultural and animal husbandry production, and high-quality development of the social economy in Xinjiang. Considering snow cover phenology based on MODIS product MOD10A1 data, this paper constructed a method for automatically extracting key phenological parameters in Xinjiang and calculated three key phenological parameters in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020, including SCD (snow cover duration), SOD (snow onset date), and SED (snow end date). The daily data of four field camera observation points during an overlapping period from 2017 to 2019 were used to evaluate the snow cover phenological parameters extracted by MOD10A1, and the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) values were 0.65 and 1.07, respectively. The results showed the following: 1. The spatiotemporal variation in snow phenology was highly altitude dependent. The mean gradients of SCD in the Altai Mountains, Tienshan Mountains, and Kunlun Mountains is 2.6, 2.1, and 1.2 d/100 m, respectively. The variation trend of snow phenology with latitude and longitude was mainly related to the topography of Xinjiang. Snow phenological parameters of different land-use types were different. The SCD values in wasteland were the lowest and the SED was the earliest, while forest land was the first to enter SOD accumulation. According to the study, the mean annual values of SCD, SOD, and SED were 25, 342 (8 December), and 51 (8 February) as day of year (DOY), respectively. The snow cover area was mainly distributed in the Altai Mountains, Junggar Basin, Tianshan Mountains, and Kunlun Mountains. 2. The variation trend and significance of snow cover phenological parameters in different regions are different, and the variation trend of snow cover phenological parameters in most regions of Xinjiang is non-significant. Full article

Under economic globalization, synergy among cities has been actively promoted. Establishing inter–city networks and joint regional development could catalyze economic growth. The mode and pace of urban growth could be gauged by construction land expansion and human–land coordination. This study adopted the dynamic change, the center of gravity, and coordination analyses to comprehensively portray spatial patterns and changes amongst 13 oasis town groups in Xinjiang, China, from 2000 to 2018. The results identified that 2010 was the turning point of acceleration in construction land expansion, demonstrating notable spatial differentiations among town groups. Northern Xinjiang experienced faster urban growth than southern Xinjiang. The Urumqi–Changji–Shihezi (UCS) town group on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains constituted the crucial urban core with the fastest construction land expansion. Although the towns in southern Xinjiang were small and beset by inherent limitations in the early period, some town groups acquired new impetus and vitality and became the fastest–developing areas in Xinjiang in recent years. The growth was driven by China’s western development program, economic assistance, and Silk Road Economic Belt. Eastern Xinjiang had convenient transportation, but its small urban entities needed population supplementation to invigorate urban expansion. In the far north, the Altay and Tacheng–Emin (TE) town groups were situated too far from development cores. They lacked the collateral benefits of nearby strong–growth loci, resulting in sluggish growth. A north–south dual–hub strategy was proposed to spearhead the dissemination of urban growth by fostering core–periphery linkages pump–primed by improved road connections. Full article

Species richness is regarded as the core index of biogeography. Estimating the correlation between species richness and modern environmental factors will be of great significance for species conservation. The arid and semiarid areas of China present serious desertification, but there are rich biodiversity resources of high value. In this study, we evaluated species diversity, species richness, and the correlation between species richness and modern environmental factors using the species of Tenebrionidae in arid and semiarid areas of China, which will provide basic data for species conservation. The species richness was measured using 1° × 1° grid cells, and its determinants were explored based on generalized linear models (GLMs) and random forest models. A total of 696 species, belonging to 125 genera of 38 tribes and 7 subfamilies, were recorded in the study area. The non-uniform species richness pattern was presented, with more species in Altai, Tianshan, Nyenchen Thanglha and Helan Mountains. The species richness was affected by a variety of environmental factors. The variables representing energy availability and climate stability had stronger explanatory power, especially the annual mean temperature (BIO1) and the mean temperature of warmest quarter (BIO10). In contrast, water availability and habitat heterogeneity have relatively little correlation with species richness. Full article