Search Results (23)

This study explores flood forecasting in the Pa River basin, a major tributary of the Beijiang River in South China, by integrating the Xin’anjiang hydrological model with the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) algorithm for parameter calibration. Fifteen observed flood events from April to August 2024 were employed in this study, with twelve events used for model calibration and the remaining three for validation. Additionally, to assess model performance under extreme conditions, a 50-year return period flood event from June 2020 was incorporated as a supplementary validation case. The calibrated model reproduced flood hydrographs with high accuracy, achieving Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of up to 0.98, relative peak discharge errors generally within ±10%, and peak timing deviations under 3 h. The validation results demonstrated consistent performance across both typical and extreme events, indicating that the proposed framework provides a feasible and physically interpretable approach for flood forecasting in data-limited catchments. Full article

Runoff is greatly influenced by changes in climate conditions. Predicting runoff and analyzing its variations under future climates are crucial for ensuring water security, managing water resources effectively, and promoting sustainable development within the catchment area. As the key step in runoff modeling, the calibration of hydrological model parameters plays an important role in models’ performance. Identifying an efficient and reliable optimization algorithm and objective function continues to be a significant challenge in applying hydrological models. This study selected new algorithms, including the strategic random search (SRS) and sparrow search algorithm (SSA) used in hydrology, gold rush optimizer (GRO) and snow ablation optimizer (SAO) not used in hydrology, and classical algorithms, i.e., shuffling complex evolution (SCE-UA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), to calibrate the two-parameter monthly water balance model (TWBM), abcd, and HYMOD model under the four objective functions of the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) variant based on knowable moments (KMoments) and considering the high and low flows (HiLo) for monthly runoff simulation and future runoff prediction in Tunxi basin, China. Furthermore, the identified algorithm and objective function scenario with the best performance were applied for runoff prediction under climate change projections. The results show that the abcd model has the best performance, followed by the HYMOD and TWBM models, and the rank of model stability is abcd > TWBM > HYMOD with the change of algorithms, objective functions, and contributing calibration years in the history period. The KMoments based on KGE can play a positive role in the model calibration, while the effect of adding the HiLo is unstable. The SRS algorithm exhibits a faster, more stable, and more efficient search than the others in hydrological model calibration. The runoff obtained from the optimal model showed a decrease in the future monthly runoff compared to the reference period under all SSP scenarios. In addition, the distribution of monthly runoff changed, with the monthly maximum runoff changing from June to May. Decreases in the monthly simulated runoff mainly occurred from February to July (10.9–56.1%). These findings may be helpful for the determination of model parameter calibration strategies, thus improving the accuracy and efficiency of hydrological modeling for runoff prediction. Full article

This study marks a significant step toward the future development of river discharges forecasted in real time for flash flood early warning system (EWS) disaster prevention frameworks in the Chugoku region of Japan, and presumably worldwide. To reduce the disaster impacts with EWSs, accurate integrated hydrometeorological real-time models for predicting extreme river water levels and discharges are needed, but they are not satisfactorily accurate due to large uncertainties. This study evaluates two calibration methods with 7 and 5 parameters using the hydrological Cell Distributed Runoff Model version 3.1.1 (CDRM), calibrated by the University of Arizona’s Shuffled Complex Evolution optimization method (SCE-UA). We hypothesize that the proposed ensemble hydrological parameter calibration approach can forecast similar future events in real time. This approach was applied to seven major rivers in the region to obtain hindcasts of the river discharges during the Heavy Rainfall Event of July 2018 (HRE18). This study introduces a new historical extreme rainfall event classification selection methodology that enables ensemble-averaged validation results of all river discharges. The reproducibility metrics obtained for all rivers cumulatively are extremely high, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.98. This shows that the proposed approach enables accurate predictions of the river discharges for the HRE18 and, similarly, real-time forecasts for future extreme rainfall-induced events in the Japanese region. Although our methodology can be directly reapplied only in regions where observed rainfall data are readily available, we suggest that our approach can analogously be applied worldwide, which indicates a broad scientific contribution and multidisciplinary applications. Full article

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) systems are used for mapping the soil’s electrical conductivity in near-surface applications. EMI measurements are commonly affected by time-varying external environmental factors, with temperature fluctuations being a big contributing factor. This makes it challenging to obtain stable and reliable data from EMI measurements. To mitigate these temperature drift effects, it is customary to perform a temperature drift calibration of the instrument in a temperature-controlled environment. This involves recording the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) values at specific temperatures to obtain a look-up table that can subsequently be used for static ECa drift correction. However, static drift correction does not account for the delayed thermal variations of the system components, which affects the accuracy of drift correction. Here, a drift correction approach is presented that accounts for delayed thermal variations of EMI system components using two low-pass filters (LPF). Scenarios with uniform and non-uniform temperature distributions in the measurement device are both considered. The approach is developed using a total of 15 measurements with a custom-made EMI device in a wide range of temperature conditions ranging from 10 °C to 50 °C. The EMI device is equipped with eight temperature sensors spread across the device that simultaneously measure the internal ambient temperature during measurements. To parameterize the proposed correction approach, a global optimization algorithm called Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) was used for efficient estimation of the calibration parameters. Using the presented drift model to perform corrections for each individual measurement resulted in a root mean square error (RMSE) of <1 mSm⁻¹ for all 15 measurements. This shows that the drift model can properly describe the drift of the measurement device. Performing a drift correction simultaneously for all datasets resulted in a RMSE <1.2 mSm⁻¹, which is considerably lower than the RMSE values of up to 4.5 mSm⁻¹ obtained when using only a single LPF to perform drift corrections. This shows that the presented drift correction method based on two LPFs is more appropriate and effective for mitigating temperature drift effects. Full article

Implementing real-time prediction and warning systems is an effective approach for mitigating flash flood disasters. However, there is still a challenge in improving the accuracy and reliability of flood prediction models. This study develops a hydrological prediction model named SCE-GUH, which combines the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona optimization algorithm with the general unit hydrograph routing method. Our aims were to investigate the applicability of the general unit hydrograph in runoff calculations and its performance in predicting flash flood events. Furthermore, we examined the influence of parameter variations in the general unit hydrograph on flood simulations and conducted a comparative analysis with the conventional Nash unit hydrograph. The research findings demonstrate that the utilization of the general unit hydrograph method can considerably decrease computational errors and enhance prediction accuracy. The flood peak detection rate was found to be 100% in all four study watersheds. The average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients were 0.83, 0.83, 0.84, and 0.87, while the corresponding coefficients of determination were 0.86, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.94, and the absolute errors of peak present time were 0.19 h, 0.40 h, 0.91 h, and 0.82 h, respectively. Moreover, the utilization of the general unit hydrograph method was found to significantly reduce the peak-to-current time difference, thereby enhancing simulation accuracy. Parameter variations have a substantial influence on peak flow characteristics. The SCE-GUH model, which incorporates the topographic and geomorphological features of the watershed along with the optimization algorithm, is capable of effectively characterizing the catchment properties of the watershed and offers valuable insights for enhancing the early warning and prediction of hydrological forecasting. Full article

To explore the anti-hyperuricemia components in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) calathide extract (SCE), we identified abietic acid (AA) via liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry and found an excellent inhibitor of xanthine oxidase (IC₅₀ = 10.60 µM, Ki = 193.65 nM) without cytotoxicity. Based on the transcriptomics analysis of the human embryonic kidney 293T cell model established using 1 mM uric acid, we evaluated that AA showed opposite modulation of purine metabolism to the UA group and markedly suppressed the intensity of purine nucleoside phosphorylase, ribose phosphate pyrophosphokinase 2, and ribose 5-phosphate isomerase A. Molecular docking also reveals the inhibition of purine nucleoside phosphorylase and ribose phosphate pyrophosphokinase 1. The SCE exhibits similar regulation of these genes, so we conclude that AA was a promising component in SCE against hyperuricemia. This present study provided a novel cell model for screening anti-hyperuricemia natural drugs in vitro and illustrated that AA, a natural diterpenoid, is a potential inhibitor of purine biosynthesis or metabolism. Full article

Groundwater has been extensively exploited in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1970s, leading to various environmental issues. Numerous studies have utilized Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to analyze changes in groundwater storage in the NCP and provide valuable insights. However, the low spatial resolution of GRACE data has posed challenges for its widespread application, and there have been limited studies focusing on refining groundwater storage changes in the NCP. In addition, the lack of data on the gap period between GRACE and GRACE-FO hinders in-depth research on regional groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA). This paper applied a groundwater storage model called NGFLOW-GRACE to construct a groundwater storage change model in the NCP at spatial resolutions of both 1° and 0.05°. The groundwater storage change model was calibrated and driven using gratis data, with hydrogeological parameter values estimated using the shuffled complex evolution algorithm (SCE-UA). The model exhibited favorable performance, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.85 during the calibration period and 55% of coefficients greater than 0.50 during the validation period. Interestingly, the results indicate that different combinations of remote sensing data do not significantly impact the outcomes, while the hydraulic gradient coefficient demonstrates the highest sensitivity. Appropriate reconstructed data were selected within the empty window period, and by downscaling the model to a resolution of 0.05°, a complete cycle (January 2003 to December 2020) of GWSA was derived. Through comprehensive comparisons with previous research findings on both temporal and spatial scales, it can be concluded that the downscaled groundwater storage changes obtained from the established model demonstrated high reliability. Full article

Vine phenology modelling is increasingly important for winegrowers and viticulturists. Model calibration is often required before practical applications. However, when multiple models and optimization methods are applied for different varieties, it is rarely known which factor tends to mostly affect the calibration results. We mainly aim to investigate the main source of the variability in the modelling errors for the flowering timings of two important varieties of vine in the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) of Portugal; this is based on five phenology model simulations that use optimal parameters and that are estimated by three optimization algorithms (MLE, SA and SCE-UA). Our results indicate that the main source of the variability in calibration can be affected by the initially assumed parameter boundary. Restricting the initial parameter distribution to a narrow range impedes the algorithm from exploring the full parameter space and searching for optimal parameters. This can lead to the largest variation in different models. At an identified appropriate boundary, the difference between the two varieties represents the largest source of uncertainty, while the choice of algorithm for calibration contributes least to the overall uncertainty. The smaller variability among different models or algorithms (tools for analysis) compared to between different varieties could indicate the overall reliability of the calibration. All optimization algorithms show similar results in terms of the obtained goodness-of-fit: the RMSE (MAE) is 5–6 (4–5) days with a negligible mean bias and moderately good R² (0.5–0.6) for the ensemble median predictor. Nevertheless, a similar predictive performance can result from differently estimated parameter values, due to the equifinality or multi-modal issue in which different parameter combinations give similar results. This mainly occurs for models with a non-linear structure compared to those with a near-linear one. Yet, the former models are found to outperform the latter ones in predicting the flowering timing of the two varieties in the DDR. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of carefully defining the initial parameter boundary and decomposing the total variance of prediction errors. This study is expected to bring new insights that will help to better inform users about the importance of choice when these factors are involved in calibration. Nonetheless, the importance of each factor can change depending on the specific situation. Details of how the optimization methods are applied and of the continuous model improvement are important. Full article

The amount of water taken from groundwater for agricultural irrigation is often not observed, while hydrological models have been extensively proposed to investigate the irrigation dynamics and impacts in agricultural areas. In this work, we propose an agro-hydrological model that integrates agricultural irrigation with the traditional Xin’anjiang (XAJ) hydrological model. In particular, the proposed model incorporates the FAO guidelines on crop evapotranspiration into hydrological routing of water balance and flow fluxes in unsaturated and saturated zones. The model was used to calibrate the groundwater irrigation amounts in terms of both the observed river discharge and the groundwater depth in the Xuanwu plain area of the Huaihe River Basin in China. The calibration and sensitivity analyses were performed by the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) method. This method can be applied to a single-objective optimization of model parameters, based on either the river discharge or the groundwater depth, or to a multi-objective optimization of model parameters based on both of these objectives. The results show that the multi-objective calibration is more efficient than the single-objective method for capturing dynamics of the river discharge and the groundwater depth. The estimated means of the annual groundwater withdrawal for wheat and maize irrigations were found to be about 140.5 mm and 13.7 mm, respectively. The correlation between the groundwater withdrawal and the change in groundwater depth during crop growing seasons demonstrated that the groundwater withdrawal is the dominant factor for the groundwater depth change in the river basin, particularly in the winter wheat season. Moreover, model simulations show that the combined effects of the reduced precipitation and the increased groundwater withdrawal would lead to a decrease of the average annual runoff and an increase of the average groundwater depth. These estimates can greatly help in understanding the irregular changes in the groundwater withdrawal and offer a quantitative basis for studying future groundwater demands in this area. Full article

This study seeks to advance the knowledge about the effect of a priori parameters on calibration using the Sacramento Soil Moisture accounting Model (SAC-SMA). We investigated the catchment characteristics where calibration is most affected by the limitations in the a priori parameters and we studied the effect on the modeled processes. The a priori parameters of SAC-SMA model parameters were determined from soil-derived physical expressions that make use of the soil’s physical properties. The study employed 63 catchments from the eastern United States (US). The model calibration employed the Shuffle-Complex algorithm (SCE-UA) and used the a priori parameters as default allowing for ±35% as a range of deviation. The model efficiency after calibration was sensitive to the catchment landscape properties, particularly the soil texture and topography. The highest efficiency was obtained in conditions of well-drained soils and flat topography where the saturation excess overland flow is predominant. Most of the catchments with smaller efficiency had poorly drained soils where mountainous and forested catchments of predominant subsurface stormflow had the lowest efficiency. The current regional study shows that improvements of SAC-SMA a priori parameters are crucial to foster their operational use for calibration and prediction at ungauged catchments. Full article

Generally, there is an inconsistency between the total regional crop area that was obtained from remote sensing technology and the official statistical data on crop areas. When performing scale conversion and data aggregation of remote sensing-based crop mapping results from different administrative scales, it is difficult to obtain accurate crop planting area that match crop area statistics well at the corresponding administrative level. This problem affects the application of remote sensing-based crop mapping results. In order to solve the above problem, taking Fucheng County of Hebei Province in the Huanghuaihai Plain of China as the study area, based on the Sentinel-2 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series data covering the whole winter wheat growth period, the statistical data of the regional winter wheat planting area were regarded as reference for the winter wheat planting area extracted by remote sensing, and a new method for winter wheat mapping that is based on similarity measurement indicators and their threshold optimizations (WWM-SMITO) was proposed with the support of the shuffled complex evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) global optimization algorithm. The accuracy of the regional winter wheat mapping results was verified, and accuracy comparisons with different similarity indicators were carried out. The results showed that the total area accuracy of the winter wheat area extraction by the proposed method reached over 99.99%, which achieved a consistency that was between the regional remote sensing-based winter wheat planting area and the statistical data on the winter wheat planting area. The crop recognition accuracy also reached a high level, which showed that the proposed method was effective and feasible. Moreover, in the accuracy comparison of crop mapping results based on six different similarity indicators, the winter wheat distribution that was extracted by root mean square error (RMSE) had the best recognition accuracy, and the overall accuracy and kappa coefficient were 94.5% and 0.8894, respectively. The overall accuracies of winter wheat that were extracted by similarity indicators, such as Euclidean distance (ED), Manhattan distance (MD), spectral angle mapping (SAM), and spectral correlation coefficient (SCC) were 94.1%, 93.9%, 93.3%, and 92.8%, respectively, and the kappa coefficients were 0.8815, 0.8776, 0.8657, and 0.8558, respectively. The accuracy of the winter wheat results extracted by the similarity indicator of dynamic time warping (DTW) was relatively low. The results of this paper could provide guidance and serve as a reference for the selection of similarity indicators in crop distribution extraction and for obtaining large-scale, long-term, and high-precision remote sensing-based information on a regional crop spatial distribution that is highly consistent with statistical crop area data. Full article

Calibration of conceptual rainfall–runoff models (CRRM) for water-resource assessment (WRA) is a complicated task that contributes to the reliability of results obtained from catchments. In recent decades, the application of automatic calibration techniques has been frequently used because of the increasing complexity of models and the considerable time savings gained at this phase. In this work, the traditional Rosenbrock (RNB) algorithm is combined with a random sampling method and the Latin hypercube (LH) to optimize a multi-start strategy and test the efficiency in the calibration of CRRMs. Three models (the French rural-engineering-with-four-daily-parameters (GR4J) model, the Swedish Hydrological Office Water-balance Department (HBV) model and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model) are selected for WRA at nine headwaters in Spain in zones prone to long and severe droughts. To assess the results, the University of Arizona’s shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm was selected as a benchmark, because, until now, it has been one of the most robust techniques used to solve calibration problems with rainfall–runoff models. This comparison shows that the traditional algorithm can find optimal solutions at least as good as the SCE-UA algorithm. In fact, with the calibration of the SAC-SMA model, the results are significantly different: The RNB algorithm found better solutions than the SCE-UA for all basins. Finally, the combination created between the LH and RNB methods is detailed thoroughly, and a sensitivity analysis of its parameters is used to define the set of optimal values for its efficient performance. Full article

Accurate information of crop growth conditions and water status can improve irrigation management. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of SAFYE (simple algorithm for yield and evapotranspiration estimation) crop model for simulating winter wheat growth and estimating water demand by assimilating leaf are index (LAI) derived from canopy reflectance measurements. A refined water stress function was used to account for high crop water stress. An experiment with nine irrigation scenarios corresponding to different levels of water supply was conducted over two consecutive winter wheat growing seasons (2013–2014 and 2014–2015). The calibration of four model parameters was based on the global optimization algorithms SCE-UA. Results showed that the estimated and retrieved LAI were in good agreement in most cases, with a minimum and maximum RMSE of 0.173 and 0.736, respectively. Good performance for accumulated biomass estimation was achieved under a moderate water stress condition while an underestimation occurred under a severe water stress condition. Grain yields were also well estimated for both years (R² = 0.83; RMSE = 0.48 t∙ha⁻¹; MRE = 8.4%). The dynamics of simulated soil moisture in the top 20 cm layer was consistent with field observations for all scenarios; whereas, a general underestimation was observed for total water storage in the 1 m layer, leading to an overestimation of the actual evapotranspiration. This research provides a scheme for estimating crop growth properties, grain yield and actual evapotranspiration by coupling crop model with remote sensing data. Full article

In this study, five hydrological models of increasing complexity and 12 Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) estimation methods of different data requirements were applied in order to assess their effect on model performance, optimized parameters, and robustness. The models were applied over a set of 10 catchments that are located in South Korea. The Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) algorithm was implemented to calibrate the hydrological models for each PET input while considering similar objective functions. The hydrological models’ performance was satisfactory for each PET input in the calibration and validation periods for all of the tested catchments. The five hydrological models’ performance were found to be insensitive to the 12 PET inputs because of the SCE-UA algorithm’s efficiency in optimizing model parameters. However, the five hydrological models’ parameters in charge of transforming the PET to actual evapotranspiration were sensitive and significantly affected by the PET complexity. The values of the three statistical indicators also agreed with the computed model evaluation index values. Similarly, identical behavioral similarities and Dimensionless Bias were observed in all of the tested catchments. For the five hydrological models, lack of robustness and higher Dimensionless Bias were seen for high and low flow as well as for the Hamon PET input. The results indicated that the complexity of the hydrological models’ structure and the PET estimation methods did not necessarily enhance model performance and robustness. The model performance and robustness were found to be mainly dependent on extreme hydrological conditions, including high and low flow, rather than complexity; the simplest hydrological model and PET estimation method could perform better if reliable hydro-meteorological datasets are applied. Full article

The objective function is usually used for verification of the optimization process between observed and simulated flows for the parameter estimation of rainfall–runoff model. However, it does not focus on peak flow and on representative parameter for various rain storm events of the basin, but it can estimate the optimal parameters by minimizing the overall error of observed and simulated flows. Therefore, the aim of this study is to suggest the objective functions that can fit peak flow in hydrograph and estimate the representative parameter of the basin for the events. The Streamflow Synthesis And Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) model was employed to perform flood runoff simulation for the Mihocheon stream basin in Geum River, Korea. Optimization was conducted using three calibration methods: genetic algorithm, pattern search, and the Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at the University of Arizona (SCE-UA). Two objective functions of the Sum of Squared of Residual (SSR) and the Weighted Sum of Squared of Residual (WSSR) suggested in this study for peak flow optimization were applied. Since the parameters estimated using a single rain storm event do not represent the parameters for various rain storms in the basin, we used the representative objective function that can minimize the sum of objective functions of the events. Six rain storm events were used for the parameter estimation. Four events were used for the calibration and the other two for validation; then, the results by SSR and WSSR were compared. Flow runoff simulation was carried out based on the proposed objective functions, and the objective function of WSSR was found to be more useful than that of SSR in the simulation of peak flow runoff. Representative parameters that minimize the objective function for each of the four rain storm events were estimated. The calibrated observed and simulated flow runoff hydrographs obtained from applying the estimated representative parameters to two different rain storm events were better than those retrieved from parameters estimated using a single rain storm event. The results of this study demonstrated that WSSR is adequate in peak flow simulation, that is, the estimation of peak flood runoff. In addition, representative parameters can be applied to a flow runoff simulation for rain storm events that were not involved in parameter estimation. Full article