Search Results (7)

This study examines how Northwest Syria’s arable and irrigated areas are changing, with a particular emphasis on processes that have affected cultivation and water availability since 2011. A substantial decline in cultivated areas is revealed by the analysis of 502 samples from various stakeholders, including farmers, well owners, well-digging companies, agricultural pharmacies, and service offices. District-specific variations show a decrease of 15.3% and 8.5% in total cultivated land and irrigated areas, respectively. Particularly in areas known for their summer vegetables and winter crops, such Al-Bab and Jebel Saman, agricultural productivity has drastically decreased since 2011. Today, 67% of irrigation comes from groundwater wells, especially in Jabal Saman and Idleb, whereas Jisr-Ash-Shugur depends on the Orontes River. Due to drought and a lack of regulatory oversight, the number of irrigation wells has risen since 2011, severely reducing water supplies and driving up irrigation prices. High fuel and electricity costs, uncontrolled well drilling, broken machinery, and insufficient irrigation systems are some of the main obstacles. A lot of well owners would rather sell drinking water, which would cut down on irrigated land and crop cultivation. The needs of the stakeholders include subsidies for fuel and electricity, the development of alternative energy, well repairs, improvements to irrigation systems, the provision of agricultural inputs, and better local water management. This study emphasizes the critical need for focused interventions to support agriculture and livelihoods in Northwest Syria and offers significant insights for sustainable water management solutions. Full article

On 6 February 2023, an M7.8 devastating earthquake started rupturing the East Anatolian fault system in Turkey, resulting in intense shaking that lasted over a minute. A second earthquake of magnitude 7.5 struck near the city of Elbistan a few hours later. Both of these events are associated with the East Anatolian fault system. The earthquake sequence caused widespread damage and collapse of structures in densely populated areas throughout the Southern Turkey and Northern Syria regions and a very large number of human losses. This study focuses on the correlation of the ground deformation with the critical exposure of the infrastructures of Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş cities. The estimation of the ground deformation of the affected area is achieved with the use of Copernicus Sentinel-2 products and the Normalized Cross Correlation algorithm (NCC) of image matching. The results of the East–West component show that specific sections of the region moved towards the East direction, reaching displacement measurements of 5.4 m, while other sections moved towards the West direction, reaching displacement measurements of 2.8 m. The results of the North–South component show that almost the whole affected area moved towards the North direction, with specific areas reaching displacements of 5.5 m, and a few exemptions, as some areas moved towards the South direction, with displacements reaching even 6.9 m. Regarding the cities of Kahramanmaraş and Gaziantep, their estimated movement direction is North-West and North-East, respectively, and is consistent with the movements of the Arabian and Anatolian Plates in which they are located. Important infrastructures of the study areas (education, museums, libraries, hospitals, monuments, airports, roads and railways) are superimposed on the findings, enabling us to detect the critical exposure rapidly. Full article

Multi-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) change analysis is essential for environmental planning and recourses management. Various global LULC datasets are available now. However, they do not show strong consistency on a regional scale and are mainly time limited. Therefore, high-quality multi-temporal LULC mapping with reasonable consistency on a regional scale is still demanding. In this study, using the Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and the NASA digital elevation model (DEM), LULC mapping of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers basin (TEB) was performed by random forest (RF) classifier in the Google Earth Engine platform during 2000–2022. The spectral bands, spectral indices, morphological, and textural features were applied in the developed procedure. The results indicated that the proposed approach had accurate performance (accuracy = 0.893 and an F score = 0.820) with a good consistency with previous studies. The feature importance evaluation was carried out using Gini index, and spectral indices were identified as the most important features in LULC mapping. Overall, severe LULC change has happened in the TEB during the last two decades. Our results revealed the expansion of water and built-up classes while trees class has experienced a decreasing trend. From a regional perspective, three main areas in the east and south-east of Iraq, north-west of Iraq, and east of Syria were identified where LULC change was intense. These areas are prone to land degradation and dust storms emission problems, and it is necessary to take steps to prevent severe LULC changes in them. Full article

North-west Syria (NWS) is a conflict-affected and unstable area. Due to its limited health infrastructure, accessing advanced COVID-19 testing services is challenging. COVID-19 antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) have the potential to overcome this barrier. A pilot project was implemented to introduce Ag-RDTs in NWS, aiming to determine the feasibility, uptake, and results of Ag-RDTs and identify facilitators and barriers to testing with Ag-RDTs. A cross-sectional study design involving secondary analysis of data collected during the project was employed. A local non-governmental organization implemented 25,000 Ag-RDTs that were conducted cross-border by trained community health workers. In total, 27,888 eligible individuals were enrolled, 24,956 (89.5%) consented to test, and 121 (0.5%) were COVID-19-positive. The highest positivity was observed among those with severe COVID-19 symptoms (12.7%), with respiratory illnesses (2.5%), enrolled at hospitals in Afrin (2.5%), and healthcare workers (1.9%). A non-random sample of 236 individuals underwent confirmatory RT-PCR testing. Observed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 80.0%, 96.1%, 91.4%, and 90.3%, respectively. Challenges included obtaining informed consent and conducting confirmatory testing. Ag-RDTs represent a feasible screening/diagnostic tool for COVID-19 infections in NWS, with nearly 90% uptake. Embedding Ag-RDTs into COVID-19 testing and screening strategies would be highly beneficial. Full article

Syria has experienced armed conflict since 2011, and the provision of health care has been severely compromised due to the hostilities. At the time of writing, Northwest Syria (NWS) was outside governmental control and faced the challenges of the COVID-19 outbreak. Since the emergence of this disease, several studies have looked at the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission, predicted its progression, and determined the impact of different preventive measures. While most of these studies’ settings were in stable contexts, this study investigated the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northwest Syria, a conflict-affected region, for nine months (from July 2020 to March 2021) using the Suspected-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. We adjusted the SIR model to study the impact of wearing facial masks on the outbreak dynamics and progression. Based on available data and using the basic and adjusted SIR models, we estimated the value of the basic reproduction number (R0), which provides an initial prediction of disease progression. Using the basic SIR model, the estimated R0 for the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Northwest Syria was 2.38. The resulting figures were overestimated in comparison with the reported numbers and data on the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the results were significantly reasonable when we adjusted the model for a preventive measure (in this case, wearing face masks). Face masks, the most available preventive measure to be applied in emergency and conflict settings, remarkably affect the outbreak dynamics and may play a key role in controlling and limiting the spread of COVID-19. The novelty of the study is provided by simulating the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in conflict settings, as it is the first study to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 disease in NWS by adjusting for face-mask-wearing as a preventive measure to explore its impact on outbreak dynamics. Full article

Expansion of arid lands due to climate change, particularly in water stressed regions of the world can have severe implications on the economy and people’s livelihoods. The spatiotemporal trends in aridity, the shift of land from lower to higher arid classes and the effect of this shift on different land uses in Syria have been evaluated in this study for the period 1951–2010 using high-resolution monthly climate data of the Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group of Princeton University. The trends in rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration were also evaluated to understand the causes of aridity shifts. The results revealed an expansion of aridity in Syria during 1951–1980 compared to 1981–2010. About 6.21% of semi-arid land was observed to shift to arid class and 5.91% dry-subhumid land to semi-arid land between the two periods. Analysis of results revealed that the decrease in rainfall is the major cause of increasing aridity in Syria. About 28.3% of agriculture land located in the north and the northwest was found to shift from humid to dry-subhumid or dry-subhumid to semi-arid. Analysis of results revealed that the shifting of drylands mostly occurred in the northern agricultural areas of Syria. The land productivity and irrigation needs can be severely affected by increasing aridity which may affect food security and the economy of the country. Full article

The first 10 days of September 2015 were marked by intense dust activity over the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula. This study examines the atmospheric conditions at the origin of the large dust storms during this period. We particularly investigate the atmospheric dynamics leading to the development of a large dry cyclone over Iraq on 31 August 2015 which in turn generated an intense dust storm that affected most of the countries around the Arabian Gulf and lasted for 5 days. We found that the cyclone developed over Northwest Iraq as a transfer to low levels of a cut-off low which had formed two days earlier at upper levels over Turkey. Large dust loads exceeding 250 tons were emitted and moved southeast in a cyclonic shape toward the Arabian sea. The second large dust storm on 6-8 September 2015 occurred over Syria and affected all the coastal countries on the eastern side of the Mediterranean Sea. It was associated with the occurrence of a series of density currents over northeast Syria emanating from deep convection over the mountainous border between Syria and Turkey. The unusual development of deep convection over this area was associated with a blocking high and interaction with orography. Both the cut-off high and the cut-off low occurred during a period characterized by a meandering polar jet and an enhanced subtropical jet causing unstable weather over mid-latitudes which in turn led to highly polluted atmosphere by natural dust in the affected countries. Full article