Search Results (13)

In recent decades, understanding how climate variability and human activities drive long-term changes in river discharge and sediment load has become a crucial field of research in fluvial geomorphology, particularly for South Asia’s densely populated and environmentally sensitive regions. This study analyses spatio-temporal trends in water discharge (Q_d) and sediment load (Q_s) in the Krishna basin, Peninsular India’s second-largest catchment. Using nearly 50 years of daily discharge, sediment concentration, and rainfall data from the Central Water Commission (CWC) and India Meteorological Department (IMD), we applied Mann–Kendall, Pettitt tests, and double mass equations to detect long-term trends, abrupt changes, and the relative influence of climate and anthropogenic effects. Results showed a notable decline in the annual discharge, with 15 of 20 stations showing decreasing trends, especially along the Bhima, Ghataprabha, and lower Krishna rivers. The annual stream flow data showed a 53% decline in the mean Q_d from 26.01 × 10⁹ m³ year⁻¹ before 2000 to 12.32 × 10⁹ m³ year⁻¹ after 2000 at the terminal station. Eight of ten gauging stations showed a significant decrease (p-value < 0.05) in their annual sediment load, with a 76% reduction across the Krishna basin after its changepoint in 1983. The Pettitt test identified a statistically significant downward shift in discharge at seven stations. Double mass plots indicate that anthropogenic factors, such as large-scale reservoirs and water diversion, are the main contributors, accounting for 82.7% of sediment decline, with climatic factors contributing 17.1%. The combined trend analysis and double mass plots confirm these findings, underscoring the need for further study of human impacts on the basin’s hydro-geomorphology. This study offers a clear and robust approach to quantifying the relative effects of climate and human activities, providing a versatile framework that can enhance understanding in similar studies worldwide. Full article

Progressive environmental and climatic changes have significantly increased hydrometeorological threats all over the globe. Floods have gained global significance owing to their devastating impact and their capacity to cause economic and human loss. Accurate flood forecasting and the identification of high-risk areas are essential for preventing flood impacts and implementing strategic measures to mitigate flood-related damages. In this study, an assessment of the susceptibility to riverine flooding in India was conducted utilizing Multicriteria Decision making (MCDM) and an extensive geospatial database was created through the integration of fourteen geomorphological, meteorological, hydroclimatic, and anthropogenic factors. The coupled methodology incorporates a Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) model, which utilizes Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFN) to determine the Importance Weights (IWs) of various parameters and their subclasses based on the Saaty scale. Based on the determined IWs, this study identifies proximity to rivers, drainage density, and mean annual rainfall as the key factors that contribute significantly to the occurrence of riverine floods. Furthermore, as the Geographic Information System (GIS) was employed to create the Riverine Flood Susceptibility (RFS) map of India by overlaying the weighted factors, it was found that high, moderate, and low susceptibility zones across the country span of 15.33%, 26.30%, and 31.35% of the total area of the country, respectively. The regions with the highest susceptibility to flooding are primarily concentrated in the Brahmaputra, Ganga, and Indus River basins, which happen to encompass a significant portion of the country’s agricultural land (334,492 km²) potentially posing a risk to India’s food security. Approximately 28.13% of built-up area in India falls in the highly susceptible zones, including cities such as Bardhaman, Silchar, Kharagpur, Howrah, Kolkata, Patna, Munger, Bareilly, Allahabad, Varanasi, Lucknow, and Muzaffarpur, which are particularly susceptible to flooding. RFS is moderate in the Kutch-Saurashtra-Luni, Western Ghats, and Krishna basins. On the other hand, areas on the outskirts of the Ganga, Indus, and Brahmaputra basins, as well as the middle and outer portions of the peninsular basins, show a relatively low likelihood of riverine flooding. The RFS map created in this research, with an 80.2% validation accuracy assessed through AUROC analysis, will function as a valuable resource for Indian policymakers, urban planners, and emergency management agencies. It will aid them in prioritizing and executing efficient strategies to reduce flood risks effectively. Full article

In the present work, a wavelet-based multiscale deep learning approach is developed to forecast precipitation using the lagged monthly rainfall, local climate variables, and global teleconnections such as IOD, PDO, NAO, and Nino 3.4 as predictors. The conventional methods are limited by their inability to capture the high precipitation variability in time and space. The proposed multiscale method was tested and validated over the Krishna River basin in India. The results from the proposed methods were compared with contemporary models based on Multiple Linear Regression and Neural Networks. Overall, the forecasting accuracy was higher using the wavelet-based hybrid models than the single-scale models. The wavelet-based methods yielded results with 13–34% reduced error when compared with the best single-scale models. The proposed multi-scale model was then applied to the different climatic regions of the country, and it was shown that the model could forecast rainfall with reasonable accuracy for different climate zones of the country. Full article

African oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) is a bulk feeder of nutrients. In this study, we aimed at devising strategies for efficient nutrient management in the oil palm plantations of the Krishna River basin located in Andhra Pradesh, India by assessing soil fertility status, establishing optimal leaf nutrient concentrations and identifying yield restrictive nutrients. In total, 67 oil palm plantations were surveyed from this area in 2020, soil samples were collected and analysed for different soil properties, including pH, EC, SOC, available P, K, S, exchangeable Ca and Mg, and hot water-soluble boron (HWB) in surface (from 0–20 cm depth), subsurface (from 20–40 cm depth) and deep (from 40–60 cm depth) soil layers. As per DRIS (Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System) indices estimated in this study, the order of requirement of nutrients is Nitrogen (N) > B > K > P > Mg for this area. Optimum leaf nutrient concentrations ranged between 2.07–4.29%, 0.13–0.27%, 0.52–0.94%, 0.44–0.76% and 44.97–102.70 mg/kg for N, P, K, Mg and B, respectively. In surveyed plantations, about 15, 6, 16, 9 and 12 percent of leaf samples had less than optimum concentration of N, P, K, Mg and B respectively. Nitrogen and Boron are the major yield limiting factors in this region. Leaf nutrient concentrations need to be maintained at the optimum ranges as estimated above for higher productivity in the Krishna basin area. Full article

In Peninsular India, the Krishna River basin is the second largest river basin that is overutilized and more vulnerable to climate change. The main aim of this study is to determine the future projection of monthly streamflows in the Krishna River basin for Historic (1980–2004) and Future (2020–2044, 2045–2069, 2070–2094) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with the help of the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT model parameters are optimized using SWAT-CUP during calibration (1975 to 1990) and validation (1991–2003) periods using observed discharge data at 5 gauging stations. The Cordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) provides the future projections for meteorological variables with different high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCM). Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) is used to analyze the uncertainty of meteorological variables associated within the multiple GCMs for simulating streamflow. REA-projected climate parameters are validated with IMD-simulated data. The results indicate that REA performs well throughout the basin, with the exception of the area near the Krishna River’s headwaters. For the RCP 4.5 scenario, the simulated monsoon streamflow values at Mantralayam gauge station are 716.3 m³/s per month for the historic period (1980–2004), 615.6 m³/s per month for the future1 period (2020–2044), 658.4 m³/s per month for the future2 period (2045–2069), and 748.9 m³/s per month for the future3 period (2070–2094). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, lower values of about 50% are simulated during the winter. Future streamflow projections at Mantralayam and Pondhugala gauge stations are lower by 30 to 50% when compared to historic streamflow under RCP 4.5. When compared to the other two future periods, trends in streamflow throughout the basin show a decreasing trend in the first future period. Water managers in developing water management can use the recommendations made in this study as preliminary information and adaptation practices for the Krishna River basin. Full article

The Upper Krishna Basin in Maharashtra (India) is highly vulnerable to floods. This study aimed to generate a flood susceptibility map for the basin using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index models of flood analysis. The flood hazard inventory map was created by 370 flood locations in the Upper Krishna Basin and plotted using ArcGIS 10.1 software. The 259 flood locations (70%) were selected randomly as training samples for analysis of the flood models, and for validation purposes, the remaining 111 flood locations (30%) were used. Flood susceptibility analyses were performed based on 12 flood conditioning factors. These were elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, Topographic Wetness Index, Stream Power Index, rainfall, distance from the river, stream density, soil types, land use, and distance from the road. The Statistical Index model revealed that 38% of the area of the Upper Krishna Basin is in the high- to very-high-flood-susceptibility class. The precision of the flood susceptibility map was confirmed using the receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curve value method. The area under the curve showed a 66.89% success rate and a 68% prediction rate for the Frequency Ratio model. However, the Statistical Index model provided an 82.85% success rate and 83.23% prediction rate. The comparative analysis of the Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index models revealed that the Statistical Index model was the most suitable for flood susceptibility analysis and mapping flood-prone areas in the Upper Krishna Basin. The results obtained from this research can be helpful in flood disaster mitigation and hazard preparedness in the Upper Krishna Basin. Full article

It is important to understand how changing climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) will impact future spatio-temporal water availability across the Munneru river basin as it aids in effective water management and adaptation strategies. The Munneru river basin is one of the important sub-basins of the Krishna River in India. In this paper, the combined impact of LULC and Climate Change (CC) on Munneru water resources using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is presented. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated for the period 1983–2017 in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI2 algorithm. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated streamflow is calculated to be 0.92. The top five ranked Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are ensembled at each grid using the Reliable Ensemble Averaging (REA) approach. Predicted LULC maps for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080 using the CA-Markov model revealed increases in built-up and kharif crop areas and decreases in barren lands. The average monthly streamflows are simulated for the baseline period (1983–2005) and for three future periods, namely the near future (2021–2039), mid future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2099) under Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. Streamflows increase in three future periods when only CC and the combined effect of CC and LULC are considered under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. When compared to the CC impact in the RCP 4.5 scenario, the percentage increase in average monthly mean streamflow (July–November) with the combined impact of CC and LULC is 33.9% (near future), 35.8% (mid future), and 45.3% (far future). Similarly, RCP 8.5 increases streamflow by 33.8% (near future), 36.5% (mid future), and 38.8% (far future) when compared to the combined impact of CC and LULC with only CC. When the combined impact of CC and LULC is considered, water balance components such as surface runoff and evapotranspiration increase while aquifer recharge decreases in both scenarios over the three future periods. The findings of this study can be used to plan and develop integrated water management strategies for the basin with projected LULC under climate change scenarios. This methodology can be applied to other basins in similar physiographic regions. Full article

Semi-Arid Tropical (SAT) regions are influenced by climate change impacts affecting the rainfed crops in their productivity and production. Water Footprint (WF) assessment for rainfed crops on watershed scale is critical for water resource planning, development, efficient crop planning, and, better water use efficiency. A semi-arid tropical watershed was selected in lower Krishna river basin having a 4700 ha area in Telangana, India. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance components of watershed like runoff, potential evapotranspiration, percolation, and effective rainfall for base period (1994 to 2013) and different climate change scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for the time periods of 2020, 2050 and 2080. Green and blue WF of rainfed crops viz., maize, sorghum, groundnut, redgram and cotton were performed by considering rainfed, and two critical irrigations (CI) of 30mm and 50mm. It indicated that the effective rainfall (ER) is less than crop evapo-transpiration (ET) during crop growing period under different RCPs, time periods, and base period. The green WF under rainfed condition over different RCPs and time periods had decreasing trend for all crops. The study suggested that in the rainfed agro-ecosystems, the blue WF can significantly reduce the total WF by enhancing the productivity through critical irrigation management using on farm water resources developed through rainwater harvesting structures. The maximum significant reduction in WF over the base period was observed 13–16% under rainfed, 30–32% with 30 mm CI and 40–42% with 50 mm CI by 2080. Development of crop varieties particularly in oilseeds and pulses which have less WF and higher yields for unit of water consumed could be a solution for improving overall WF in the watersheds of SAT regions. Full article

The study proposes Secondary Precipitation Estimate Merging using Machine Learning (SPEM2L) algorithms for merging multiple global precipitation datasets to improve the spatiotemporal rainfall characterization. SPEM2L is applied over the Krishna River Basin (KRB), India for 34 years spanning from 1985 to 2018, using daily measurements from three Secondary Precipitation Products (SPPs). Sixteen Machine Learning Algorithms (MLAs) were applied on three SPPs under four combinations to integrate and test the performance of MLAs for accurately representing the rainfall patterns. The individual SPPs and the integrated products were validated against a gauge-based gridded dataset provided by the Indian Meteorological Department. The validation was applied at different temporal scales and various climatic zones by employing continuous and categorical statistics. Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization (NBR) algorithm employing three SPPs integration outperformed all other Machine Learning Models (MLMs) and two dataset integration combinations. The merged NBR product exhibited improvements in terms of continuous and categorical statistics at all temporal scales as well as in all climatic zones. Our results indicate that the SPEM2L procedure could be successfully used in any other region or basin that has a poor gauging network or where a single precipitation product performance is ineffective. Full article

Remote sensing-based assessments of large river basins such as the Krishna, which supplies water to many states in India, are useful for operationally monitoring agriculture, especially basins that are affected by abiotic stress. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series products can be used to understand cropland changes at the basin level due to abiotic stresses, especially water scarcity. Spectral matching techniques were used to identify land use/land cover (LULC) areas for two crop years: 2013–2014, which was a normal year, and 2015–2016, which was a water stress year. Water stress-affected crop areas were categorized into three classes—severe, moderate and mild—based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and intensity of damage assessed through field sampling. Furthermore, ground survey data were used to assess the accuracy of MODIS-derived classification individual products. Water inflows into and outflows from the Krishna river basin during the study period were used as direct indicators of water scarcity/availability in the Krishna Basin. Furthermore, ground survey data were used to assess the accuracy of MODIS-derived LULC classification of individual year products. Rainfall data from the tropical rainfall monitoring mission (TRMM) was used to support the water stress analysis. The nine LULC classes derived using the MODIS temporal imagery provided overall accuracies of 82% for the cropping year 2013–2014 and 85% for the year 2015–2016. Kappa values are 0.78 for 2013–2014 and 0.82 for 2015–2016. MODIS-derived cropland areas were compared with national statistics for the cropping year 2013–2014 with a R² value of 0.87. Results show that both rainfed and irrigated areas in 2015–2016 saw significant changes that will have significant impacts on food security. It has been also observed that the farmers in the basin tend to use lower inputs and labour per ha during drought years. Among all, access to water is the major driver determining the crop choice and extent of input-use in the basin. Full article

Rice is one of the major crops cultivated predominantly in flooded paddies, thus a large amount of water is consumed during its growing season. Accurate paddy rice maps are therefore important inputs for improved estimates of actual evapotranspiration in the agricultural landscape. The main objective of this study was to obtain flooded paddy rice maps using multi-temporal images of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in the Krishna River Basin, India. First, ground-based spectral samples collected by a field spectroradiometer, CROPSCAN, were used to demonstrate unique contrasts between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) observed during the transplanting season of rice. The contrast between Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) from MODIS time series data was then used to generate classification decision rules to map flooded rice paddies, for the transplanting seasons of Kharif and Rabi rice crops in the Krishna River Basin. Consistent with ground spectral observations, the relationship of the MODIS EVI vs. LSWI of paddy rice fields showed distinct features from other crops during the transplanting seasons. The MODIS-derived maps were validated against extensive reference data collected from multiple land use field surveys. The accuracy of the paddy rice maps, when determined using field plot data, was approximately 78%. The MODIS-derived rice crop areas were also compared with the areas reported by Department of Agriculture (DOA), Government of India (Government Statistics). The estimated root mean square difference (RMSD) of rice area estimated using MODIS and those reported by the Department of Agriculture over 10 districts varied between 3.4% and 6.6% during 10 years of our study period. Some of the major factors responsible for this difference include high noise of the MODIS images during the prolonged monsoon seasons (typically June–October) and the coarse spatial resolution (500 m) of the MODIS images compared to the small crop fields in the basin. However, this study demonstrates, based on multi-year analysis, that MODIS images can still provide robust and consistent flooded paddy rice extent and areas over a highly heterogeneous large river basin. Full article

This paper describes an approach to accurately separate out and quantify crop dominance areas in the major command area in the Krishna River Basin. Classification was performed using IRS-P6 (Indian Remote Sensing Satellite, series P6) and MODIS eight-day time series remote sensing images with a spatial resolution of 23.6 m, 250 m for the year 2005. Temporal variations in the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) pattern obtained in crop dominance classes enables a demarcation between long duration crops and short duration crops. The NDVI pattern was found to be more consistent in long duration crops than in short duration crops due to the continuity of the water supply. Surface water availability, on the other hand, was dependent on canal water release, which affected the time of crop sowing and growth stages, which was, in turn, reflected in the NDVI pattern. The identified crop-wise classes were tested and verified using ground-truth data and state-level census data. The accuracy assessment was performed based on ground-truth data through the error matrix method, with accuracies from 67% to 100% for individual crop dominance classes, with an overall accuracy of 79% for all classes. The derived major crop land areas were highly correlated with the sub-national statistics with R² values of 87% at the mandal (sub-district) level for 2005–2006. These results suggest that the methods, approaches, algorithms and datasets used in this study are ideal for rapid, accurate and large-scale mapping of paddy rice, as well as for generating their statistics over large areas. This study demonstrates that IRS-P6 23.6-m one-time data fusion with MODIS 250-m time series data is very useful for identifying crop type, the source of irrigation water and, in the case of surface water irrigation, the way in which it is applied. The results from this study have assisted in improving surface water and groundwater irrigated areas of the command area and also provide the basis for better water resource assessments at the basin scale. Full article

Mapping irrigated areas of a river basin is important in terms of assessing water use and food security. This paper describes an innovative remote sensing based vegetation phenological approach to map irrigated areas and then the differentiates the ground water irrigated areas from the surface water irrigated areas in the Krishna river basin (26,575,200 hectares) in India using MODIS 250 meter every 8-day near continuous time-series data for 2000–2001. Temporal variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) pattern obtained in irrigated classes enabled demarcation between: (a) irrigated surface water double crop, (b) irrigated surface water continuous crop, and (c) irrigated ground water mixed crops. The NDVI patterns were found to be more consistent in areas irrigated with ground water due to the continuity of water supply. Surface water availability, on the other hand, was dependent on canal water release that affected time of crop sowing and growth stages, which was in turn reflected in the NDVI pattern. Double cropped and light irrigation have relatively late onset of greenness, because they use canal water from reservoirs that drain large catchments and take weeks to fill. Minor irrigation and ground water irrigated areas have early onset of greenness because they drain smaller catchments where aquifers and reservoirs fill more quickly. Vegetation phonologies of 9 distinct classes consisting of Irrigated, rainfed, and other land use classes were also derived using MODIS 250 meter near continuous time-series data that were tested and verified using groundtruth data, Google Earth very high resolution (sub-meter to 4 meter) imagery, and state-level census data. Fuzzy classification accuracies for most classes were around 80% with class mixing mainly between various irrigated classes. The areas estimated from MODIS were highly correlated with census data (R-squared value of 0.86). Full article