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Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection constitutes a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. The identification of HCC risk factors and the development of prognostic risk scores are essential for early diagnosis and prognosis. The aim of this observational, retrospective study was to evaluate baseline risk factors associated with HCC in CHB. Six hundred thirty-two consecutive adults with CHB (n = 632) [median age: 46 (IQR: 24)], attending the outpatients’ Hepatology clinics between 01/1993–09/2020 were evaluated. Core promoter mutations and cirrhosis-HCC (GAG-HCC), Chinese University-HCC (CU-HCC), risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (REACH-B), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and Platelet Age Gender–HBV (PAGE-B) prognostic scores were calculated, and receiver operating curves were used to assess their prognostic performance. HCC was developed in 34 (5.38%) patients. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age (HR: 1.086, 95% CI: 1.037–1.137), male sex (HR: 7.696, 95% CI: 1.971–30.046), alcohol abuse (HR: 2.903, 95% CI: 1.222–6.987) and cirrhosis (HR: 21.239, 95% CI: 6.001–75.167) at baseline were independently associated with the development of HCC. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed the highest performance with c-statistics of 0.895 (95% CI: 0.829–0.961) and 0.857 (95% CI: 0.791–0.924), respectively. In the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis, the performance of all scores declined. When treated and untreated patients were studied separately, the discriminatory ability of the scores differed. In conclusion, HCC development was independently associated with advanced age, male sex, alcohol abuse, and baseline cirrhosis among a diverse population with CHB. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed high discriminatory performance to assess the risk of HCC development in these patients, but these performances declined in the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. Further research to develop scores more specific to certain CHB subgroups is needed. Full article

Objectives: Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B who received long-term therapy with potent nucleos(t)ide analogs is of utmost importance to refine the strategy for HCC surveillance. Methods: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study to validate the CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores, HCC prediction models developed for Caucasian patients receiving entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TFV) for >5 years. Consecutive patients who started ETV or TFV at two hospitals in Korea from January 2009 to December 2015 were identified. The prediction scores were calculated, and model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Among 1557 patients included, 57 (3.7%) patients had HCC during a median follow-up of 93 (95% confidence interval, 73–119) months. In the entire cohort, CAGE-B predicted HCC with an area under the ROC curve of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72–0.84). Models that have “liver cirrhosis” in the calculation, such as AASL (0.79 (0.72–0.85)), CU-HCC (0.77 (0.72–0.82)), and GAG-HCC (0.79 (0.74–0.85)), showed accuracy similar to that of CAGE-B (p > 0.05); however, models without “liver cirrhosis”, including SAGE-B (0.71 (0.65–0.78)), showed a lower predictive ability than CAGE-B. CAGE-B performed well in subgroups of patients treated without treatment modification (0.81 (0.73–0.88)) and of male sex (0.79 (0.71–0.86)). Conclusions: This study validated the clinical usefulness of the CAGE-B score in a large number of Asian patients treated with long-term ETV or TFV. The results could provide the basis for the reappraisal of HCC surveillance strategies and encourage future prospective validation studies with liver stiffness measurements. Full article