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► Journal BrowserSpecial Issue "The Role of Economic Sustainability in Economic Forecasting"
A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability".
Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 October 2021.
Special Issue Editor
Special Issue Information
Dear Colleagues,
Professional forecasters generally regard their activity as a combination of applications of models, interpretations of economic indicators and informed judgement that has no agenda other than delivering the best possible unbiased forecasts of economic prices or volumes for a well-specified forecasting horizon. However, this view does not reflect the embeddedness of forecasting activity and the people engaged in it in the broader socio-economic context. In particular, it ignores the impact of the prevailing attitudes about the normal state of economic affairs, towards which the forecasts tend to converge, explicit or implicit political pressure to sketch overly bright or gloomy outlooks in order to influence electoral outcomes or to generate support for a political agenda and, last but not least, economic self-interest of forecasters or their employers. Moreover, forecasters aware of the fact that their forecasts can have real impacts by shaping the expectations of economic agents may be reluctant to publish their results untampered to avoid undesirable self-fulfilling prophecies or, to the contrary, to provide early warnings hoping that their forecast will turn out self-defeating. In addition, forecasters may shy away from publishing forecasts that they perceive as overly different from their colleagues in the field. Accordingly, biased or self-interested forecasts may be the rule rather than the exception.
The special issue The role of Economic Sustainability in Economic Forecasting aims at shedding some light on how the ever more urgent imperative of sustainability of all economic activity does, will or should be considered in economic forecasting. While the literature on forecasting activity has devoted its attention, amongst others, to political biases, electoral cycles and, in particular related to financial markets, fraudulent messages, the role of sustainability in the process is still largely in the dark. Topics to be addressed by the contributions to this issue comprise, amongst others
- Efforts directed to questioning the appropriateness of the typical target variables in macroeconomic forecasting (GDP growth, deflators, balance of trade, employment). Which variables relating to sustainability could be emphasized; which ones should be de-emphasized?
- The traditional focus in macroeconomic forecasting on GDP growth ignores the production-leisure trade-off. Should, and if yes, how could the utility derived from leisure time be incorporated in the process and communication of economic forecasting?
- Whilst leisure has the potential to increase human well-being, involuntary unemployment is proven to be a major cause of human deprivation. The related loss of self-esteem, mental health problems and increased drug abuse and suicide risks are obscured rather than highlighted by unemployment statistics and forecast. Should, and if yes, how could the disutility derived from unemployment be incorporated in the process and communication of economic forecasting?
- Economic forecasts are typically communicated with positive connotations for high GDP growth rates, employment, exports and other outcomes that are related to environmental degradation on depletion of non-renewable resources. Should, and if yes, how could these well-known negative externalities incorporated in the process and communication of economic forecasting?
- It is argued that economic growth is becoming more sustainable due to the de-coupling of the production of goods from material resources and energy consumption as well as to the increasing share of services in total output. Should, and if yes, how could the progress (or failure) of this de-coupling be incorporated in the process and communication of economic forecasting?
- The scientific consensus points to the danger of tipping points and the imperative of a rapid reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions to net zero within very few decades, given the normative prior that we bear responsibility for the generations to come. On this basis, transnational organisations as well as governments are now sketching more or less ambitious emission reduction paths. Should, and if yes, how could forecasters relate to the convergence (or failure to converge) of the real economy to theses paths during their forecasting horizons?
- Some kinds of economic activity need to be reduced and eventually abandoned to meet the climate goals. Others tend to become politically less acceptable, for example business including armaments production, human right violations, bribery and tax evasion. This may lead to drastic reductions of expected profits and hence the stock market valuations of the affected corporations, some of the major global players, resulting in dramatic asset price meltdown. As this would hit financial investors (including central banks and pension funds) badly, a shift towards more sustainable and ethically acceptable portfolios is already observable amongst some investors and it can be expected to gain ground. Should, and if yes, how could these changes be incorporated in the process and communication of economic and financial forecasting?
- Following the issues highlighted above, the typical positivist starting point of economic forecasters, even if it is subjectively perceived as completely free of ideology, is in essence apologetic, as it takes business as usual as the norm, even if precisely this is now rapidly becoming normatively less acceptable. Should we, and if yes, how could we address this contradiction in the education and practice of the forecasting profession?
Please submit your papers on those or related topics before the end of October 2021.
Kind regards,
Prof. Dr. Michael Graff
Guest Editor
Manuscript Submission Information
Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.
Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.
Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1900 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.
Keywords
- forecasting
- long-run development paths
- structural change
- sustainability