J. Risk Financial Manag.2015, 8(2), 198-226; doi:10.3390/jrfm8020198 - published 7 April 2015 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of tail risk interdependence among U.S. banks, financial services and insurance sectors. Life and non-life insurers have been considered separately to account for their different characteristics. The tail risk interdependence measurement framework relies on the multivariate Student-t Markov switching (MS) model and the multiple-conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) (conditional expected shortfall (CoES)) risk measures introduced in Bernardi et al. (2013), accounting for both the stylized facts of financial data and the contemporaneous multiple joint distress events. The Shapley value methodology is then applied to compose the puzzle of individual risk attributions, providing a synthetic measure of tail interdependence. Our empirical investigation finds that banks appear to contribute more to the tail risk evolution of all of the remaining sectors, followed by the financial services and the insurance sectors, showing that the insurance sector significantly contributes as well to the overall risk. We also find that the role of each sector in contributing to other sectors’ distress evolves over time according to the current predominant financial condition, implying different interdependence strength.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2015, 8(2), 181-197; doi:10.3390/jrfm8020181 - published 31 March 2015 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: In this paper, we study the impact of extreme events on the loan portfolios of the Greek banking system. These portfolios are grouped into three separate groups based on the size of the bank to which they belong, in particular, large, medium, and small size. A series of extreme scenarios was performed and the increase in capital requirements was calculated for each scenario based on the standardized and internal ratings approach of the Basel II accord. The results obtained show an increase of credit risk during the crisis periods, and the differentiation of risk depending on the size of the banking organization as well as the added capital that will be needed in order to hedge that risk. The execution of the scenarios aims at studying the effects which may be brought about on the capital of the three representative banks by the appearance of adverse events.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2015, 8(1), 150-180; doi:10.3390/jrfm8010150 - published 23 March 2015 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: This study investigates the valuation impact of a firm’s decision to cross list on a more (or less) prestigious stock exchange relative to its own domestic market. We use a network analysis methodology to derive broad market-based measures of prestige for 45 country or regional stock exchange destinations between 1990 and 2006. We find that firms cross listing in a more prestigious market enjoy significant valuation gains over the five-year period following the listing. In contrast, firms cross listing in less prestigious markets experience a significant valuation discount over this post-listing period. The reputation of the cross-border listing destinations is therefore a useful signal of firm value going forward. Our findings are consistent with the view that cross listing in a prestigious market enhances firm visibility, strengthens corporate governance, and lowers informational frictions and capital costs.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2015, 8(1), 127-149; doi:10.3390/jrfm8010127 - published 16 February 2015 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: It is commonly believed that women are more likely to seek advice than men; for example, on aspects of health or asking for directions when lost. This paper investigates whether women’s relatively greater propensity for advice seeking extends to important business decisions, specifically those involving corporate takeovers. Consistent with the evidence from other contexts, we show that the presence of female directors on target boards is positively and significantly associated with target boards seeking advice from top-ranked financial advisors. In contrast, we do not observe any significant association between the presence of female directors on bidder boards and their engagement of top-ranked financial advisors. We argue that the presence of a gender effect for target boards but not for bidder boards is consistent with less overconfident female versus male directors on bidder boards initiating fewer bids, higher litigation risk facing target boards for accepting too little, and the different type of advice sought by bidders and target firms.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2015, 8(1), 103-126; doi:10.3390/jrfm8010103 - published 13 February 2015 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: The statistical distribution of financial returns plays a key role in evaluating Value-at-Risk using parametric methods. Traditionally, when evaluating parametric Value-at-Risk, the statistical distribution of the financial returns is assumed to be normally distributed. However, though simple to implement, the Normal distribution underestimates the kurtosis and skewness of the observed financial returns. This article focuses on the evaluation of the South African equity markets in a Value-at-Risk framework. Value-at-Risk is estimated on four equity stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, including the FTSE/JSE TOP40 index and the S & P 500 index. The statistical distribution of the financial returns is modelled using the Normal Inverse Gaussian and is compared to the financial returns modelled using the Normal, Skew t-distribution and Student t-distribution. We then estimate Value-at-Risk under the assumption that financial returns follow the Normal Inverse Gaussian, Normal, Skew t-distribution and Student t-distribution and backtesting was performed under each distribution assumption. The results of these distributions are compared and discussed.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2015, 8(1), 83-102; doi:10.3390/jrfm8010083 - published 2 February 2015 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: This paper examines a simple basis risk model based on correlated geometric Brownian motions. We apply quadratic criteria to minimize basis risk and hedge in an optimal manner. Initially, we derive the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition for a European claim. This allows pricing and hedging under the minimal martingale measure, corresponding to the local risk-minimizing strategy. Furthermore, since the mean-variance tradeoff process is deterministic in our setup, the minimal martingale- and variance-optimal martingale measures coincide. Consequently, the mean-variance optimal strategy is easily constructed. Simple pricing and hedging formulae for put and call options are derived in terms of the Black–Scholes formula. Due to market incompleteness, these formulae depend on the drift parameters of the processes. By making a further equilibrium assumption, we derive an approximate hedging formula, which does not require knowledge of these parameters. The hedging strategies are tested using Monte Carlo experiments, and are compared with results achieved using a utility maximization approach.