Interactive Dynamics of Water–Energy–Climate Change–Food Production Conundrum: Evidence from BRICS ^†

Against the background of climate change, efficient water use and the transition towards renewable energy are paramount in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially food security. Nevertheless, there is a need for robust macro-level empirical evidence to corroborate this claim. We leveraged the unique case of BRICS to explore the interactions of water–energy–climate change in food production. We used unbalanced panel data spanning 1960–2024. We conducted several preliminary assessments to ascertain the behavior of the variables and the nature of the panel data. Specifically, we implemented the Pesaran panel cross-sectional dependence (CSD) test for unbalanced panels to ascertain CSD. Further, the stationarity of the variables was evaluated using the Pesaran cross-sectional augmented Dickey–Fuller approach, which handles CSD and unbalanced panels. Further, the long-run co-integration of the variables was examined by using the Westerlund approach to handle the unbalanced panel. Afterwards, the Driscoll–Kray robust standard error regression was used due to the unbalanced panel. Also, this technique helps to account for serial autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and CSD. The Hausman test was used to select between Driscoll–Kray fixed-effect and random-effect estimates. We used the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) for robustness after establishing co-integration in the variables. The FMOLS solves the endogeneity problems and small sample bias. Further, we used principal component analysis involving temperature, precipitation, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) to generate a composite score representing climate stress. In the model, we simulated interactions between climate stress and water withdrawal and renewable energy to understand their shared dynamics in food production. Findings from the main model suggest that climatic stress leads food production to plummet, while renewable energy increases it. Meanwhile, water withdrawal does not affect food production. Moreover, renewable energy interacts with climate stress to dissipate its adverse effects on food production. In contrast, water withdrawal interacts with climate stress to reverse its adverse effects on food production. The interaction between renewable energy use and water withdrawal is associated with a decline in food production, indicating that in the absence of climate stress, increased reliance on both can be counterproductive. However, the three-way interaction between renewable energy, water withdrawal, and climate stress positively affects food production. This suggests that in the context of climatic stress, the combined use of renewable energy and increased water withdrawal can enhance agricultural productivity. We observed heterogeneous productivity outcomes of water–energy–climate interactions across cereal crops. The findings hold relevant policy and practical implications for BRICS countries in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.