The Risky-Opportunity Analysis Method (ROAM) to Support Risk-Based Decisions in a Case-Study of Critical Infrastructure Digitization

Socio-ecologic, socio-economic, and socio-technical transitions are opportunities that require fundamental changes in the system. These will encounter matters associated with security, service adoption by end-users, infrastructure and availability. The purpose of this study is to examine and overcome the risks to take advantage of opportunities through the novel Risky-Opportunity Analysis Method (ROAM). A novel quantitative method is designed to determine when, after making some changes, the risks become acceptable so that the opportunity does not deviate from the objectives. The approach provided a quantitative evaluation of the possible changes in parallel with digitization, towards providing a green Service Supply Chain (SSC). The result of ROAM shows that the most cost-effective change to increase the resilience of the system is a solution (SMS) which is different from that identified by a TOPSIS multi-criteria method. Real-word decisions in change management should tackle the complexity of systems and uncertainty of events during and after transition through a careful analysis of the alternatives. A case-study was carried out to evaluate the alternatives of an ancillary service in the Payment Service Providers (PSP). The comparison of the ROAM results with the traditional TOPSIS of the case-study unveils the priority of the ROAM in practice when the alternatives are Risky-Opportunities. The existing risk assessment tools do not take advantage of risky opportunities. To this aim, the current article introduces the term Risky-Opportunity, and two indexes—Stress and Strain—of the alternatives that are designed to be employed in the new quantitative ROAM approach.


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Innovation and change are the foundations of sustainable development and contribute to 22 creating a resilient future. To this aim, it is crucial to consider a risk-based approach to carry 23 out transformation in real-world complex systems Holton (2020); Waddock et al. (2015). The 24 scope of this study is Critical Infrastructures (CI) and their role in the transformation of complex 25 systems. Digitization of CI is a hot trend that bonds society with technology Holton (2020); the system, which is providing payment receipts. This service can be investigated as an instance 85 of supply chain. 86 The investigation of resilience of a service supply chain has started on 2002, and have 87 been focused on redundancy and reserving a part of the available resources of the enterprise to were key points of resilience and sustainability of the service supply chain. The present paper 100 investigates the opportunity to make a service supply chain (i.e. PSP) more resilient Arva et al.

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(2020) by changing the way in which one ancillary service (printing the receipt using thermal 102 paper, a toxic solid waste -Akilarasan et al. (2018)) is presently performed. This transition must 103 consider the risks of substituting the old ancillary service with a resilient one, the possibility to 104 improve the risk-taking capability of the supply chain, and the resources required to make the 105 transition. In the next subsection the research on risk assessment and resource consumption in 106 risky transitions will be summarized.  . At the personal level, one who believes he is competent in making decisions tends to see 124 more opportunities in future uncertainty than threats Krueger Jr and Dickson (1994). However, at 125 the management level, it is necessary to consider both sides; so an effective project manager needs 126 to effectively manage risks while taking into account both threats and opportunities Steed (2000), 127 and, in general, the management of uncertainty for projects should include risk management and 128 opportunity management Ward and Chapman (2008).
analysis is more popular and it is discussed in studies on uncertainty and risk management, such proposed here is also a MCDM method that can be used to evaluate the risk-taking capability of a 160 company, with the aim of accepting a certain level of risk to seize an opportunity and at the same 161 time specify the quantity of resources needed to seize the RO at the project level. In the following 162 sections, the methodology will be illustrated.   Table 3 were produced by means of this software. The tool can be 177 used to implement Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ANP models for combining judgment 178 and data to effectively rank options and predict outcomes. This section aims to clarify the key terminology. that passed all the service quality requirements and it is ready for functioning. The term 'goal' 192 in this study is used in two ways. There are two kinds of goals for a new risk management plan.

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The main goal is achieving the best outcomes for the project. All of the activities are planned 194 and undertaken for this reason. In general, a risk management plan is followed to control future We use the term 'Stress' in a novel way in this study. The major difference between this 215 term and the usual similar terms, like risk, threat and hazard, is that Stress quantitatively includes 216 likely threats, costs, opportunities and benefits of an event, which is going to be implemented  2.
Next step is to identify alternative solutions to the traditional thermal paper receipt.

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It is crucial to choose the feasible and most effective alternatives to continue the analysis.

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The following criteria will be employed to select the most advantageous alternatives:      • If i represent the row number and j represents the column number of the matrix, the lower diagonal should be equal to (a ij > 0): Check the consistency ratio of the matrix using the following equations: Extract RI (Random Consistency Index) from Table 1 and calculate CR.   identified in this supply chain. Using e-Receipt to eliminate thermal paper receipt production, and 332 using a combination of e-Receipt and paper to reduce thermal paper production. Both alternatives 333 are associated with some threats, therefore they can be considered as key ROs in this analysis.  The assessment of Probability-Impact of the issues related to the alternatives is necessary to 349 support pairwise comparison. In Table 2  that this company needs to implement these alternatives. As can be seen in Table 2, there is no 353 opportunity or benefit that is not likely or has a negligible impact on improving the service if the 354 sustainability pillars are considered. In addition, there is no threat or cost that is highly likely and 355 has an extreme impact on making problem in the service. Therefore, we will not eliminate any 356 alternative.      In Figure 3, the general Risk network, which refers to pure threats cluster, and the constructed 377 network for ranking the threats regarding the socio-economic transition problem in SuperDecision 378 V3.2 are shown.    Table 4 are calculated in the same way.     price of the thermal paper is referred to 7 January 2020; however, this price is subject to high 407 fluctuation due to the fact that it is not produced internally but imported. National Internet cost is    to establish hazard free service.

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The results of the case study support the conclusion that RO1A1 (SMS) is the best alter-