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Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Received: 10 December 2017 / Revised: 8 March 2018 / Accepted: 30 March 2018 / Published: 5 April 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Complex Adaptive Systems)
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Abstract

Floodplains, as seen from the flood risk management perspective, are composed of co-evolving natural and human systems. Both flood processes (that is, the hazard) and the values at risk (that is, settlements and infrastructure built in hazardous areas) are dynamically changing over time and influence each other. These changes influence future risk pathways. The co-evolution of all of these drivers for changes in flood risk could lead to emergent behavior. Hence, complexity theory and systems science can provide a sound theoretical framework for flood risk management in the 21st century. This review aims at providing an entry point for modelers in flood risk research to consider floodplains as complex adaptive systems. For the systems science community, the actual problems and approaches in the flood risk research community are summarized. Finally, an outlook is given on potential future coupled component modeling approaches that aims at bringing together both disciplines. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood risk; floodplains; sensitivity analysis; coupled component modeling; complex adaptive systems flood risk; floodplains; sensitivity analysis; coupled component modeling; complex adaptive systems
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Zischg, A.P. Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models. Systems 2018, 6, 9.

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