Farmers’ Beliefs and Concerns about Climate Change: An Assessment from Southern Saudi Arabia

: Climate change constitutes a major threat to agricultural production, food security, and natural resource management. Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures and extreme climatic events, such as arid weather and drought. The purpose of this study is to assess farmers’ beliefs and concerns as regards climate change. Extensive interviews were conducted with 164 farmers in the Jazan region. Results revealed that 89.6% of the farmers believed that climate change is due to human activities and 93.3% believed that it is because of natural change. Seventy-ﬁve percent of the farmers were concerned about insects and 73% about the prevalence of weeds on their farms. Findings of cluster analysis revealed that farmers who are more likely to believe in climate change are more in agreement with the role of extension services in capacity building. Farmers’ beliefs about climate change were signiﬁcantly inﬂuenced by membership of agricultural cooperatives, access to loans, use of extension services, age, farm size, and level of soil fertility. Access to loans was the only signiﬁcant factor to explain the di ﬀ erences in farmers’ concerns. These results suggest the need for capacity-building activities targeted at improving farmers’ adaptability to manage climate variability.


Introduction
In recent years, many counties have experienced various adverse effects of climate change. This issue gained more attention in 2015 when the United Nations adopted Goal 13, "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact", as one of its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [1]. Consequently, governments around the world have begun to implement multiple initiatives and national plans to address climate change, not only to mitigate the adverse consequences associated with the issue and adapt to it, but also to cover the other SDGs [2]. According to Iheke and Agodike [3], climate and environmental change processes lead to changes in atmosphere, water resources, soil, and land surface. The rapid changes associated with climate change are predicted to have negative effects on food security and sustainable livelihoods [4].
Climate change affects the agricultural sector in a number of ways. Changes in weather, including fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and extreme weather events, are already impacting crop yields, the availability of water for irrigation, and livestock productivity. Weather and climate conditions also affect the processing of agricultural products, as well as transportation and storage conditions [5]. Furthermore, farming livelihoods are negatively affected by the adverse impacts Jazan region consists of 16 governorates; Al-Darb, Al-Reath, Beash, Haroob, Al-Daer, Savya, Al-Idabi, Faifa, Damad, Al-Aridah, Abu Arish, Jazan, Al-Harth, Ahad-Al-Musrarihah, Samttah, and Al Twal. The region lies between 42.33° E and 16.53° N, as shown in Figure 1, and is characterized by fertile loamy soil [20]. Despite the region representing only 0.7% of the total area of the country, it is one of the richest agricultural regions and contains approximately 8% of Saudi Arabia's farms [21]. Most farms in Jazan region are small, averaging 2-4 ha in size. It is considered the capital of Saudi Arabia's mango production, with approximately 750,000 trees producing 35,000 t annually. The region also produces sesame, millet, maize, okra, and tomatoes. Annual rainfall varies from year to year, with an average of 55-150 mm; a large amount of rainfall is observed between October and January. In summer, the temperature normally ranges from 31 to 35 °C, while the winter range is from 25 to 28 °C [22]. Water is sourced from fresh ground water, rain, and flash floods. Drip irrigation has been adopted by the majority of farmers using rainwater harvesting techniques. According to a few studies [9,[23][24][25], Jazan region is already experiencing the manifestations of climate change in the form of droughts, floods, rising summer temperature, altered rainfall patterns, strong winds, land degradation in coastal areas, changes in weed species and distribution, and increased pest and disease pressures.

Research Design
A cross-sectional survey was designed to collect data from Jazan farmers. The data were collected during the period January-March 2019. Abu Arish governorate in central Jazan was randomly selected for data collection. The survey was developed and validated by a group of experts including extension agents. The data were completed by visiting farmers at their farms, as well as by meeting the farmers at extension centers. A total of 200 farmers invited to participate in the study; 164 completed the paper-based questionnaires, resulting in an 82% response rate. Prior to data collection, the purpose of the research project was explained to the farmers and they were assured that the information gathered would only be used for academic purposes. Moreover, they were informed that their participation was not compulsory [26].

Instrument
The questionnaire was divided into four parts. The first part comprised questions concerning According to a few studies [9,[23][24][25], Jazan region is already experiencing the manifestations of climate change in the form of droughts, floods, rising summer temperature, altered rainfall patterns, strong winds, land degradation in coastal areas, changes in weed species and distribution, and increased pest and disease pressures.

Research Design
A cross-sectional survey was designed to collect data from Jazan farmers. The data were collected during the period January-March 2019. Abu Arish governorate in central Jazan was randomly selected for data collection. The survey was developed and validated by a group of experts including extension agents. The data were completed by visiting farmers at their farms, as well as by meeting the farmers at extension centers. A total of 200 farmers invited to participate in the study; 164 completed the paper-based questionnaires, resulting in an 82% response rate. Prior to data collection, the purpose of the research project was explained to the farmers and they were assured that the information gathered would only be used for academic purposes. Moreover, they were informed that their participation was not compulsory [26].

Instrument
The questionnaire was divided into four parts. The first part comprised questions concerning socio-economic information, including age, educational level, farming experience, types of farming activities, access to extension services, membership of agricultural cooperatives, farm size, access to loans, and level of soil fertility. The second section explored farmers' beliefs about climate change; these beliefs were measured using five statements, which were adopted and modified based on a study by Arbuckle et al. [14]. Respondents were asked to indicate their level of agreement or disagreement on a 5-point Likert-type scale, where 1 = Strongly Disagree, 2 = Disagree, 3 = Neither, 4 = Agree, 5 = Strongly Agree. The summed scores for farmers' beliefs were used to determine the level of farmers' beliefs regarding climate change. The total score of each respondent ranged from 5 to 25 and was converted to a percentage. Farmers' beliefs are classified as high beliefs-more than 75%; moderate-between 50 and 75%; and low beliefs-less than 50%.
The third part of the survey measured farmers' concerns about adverse impacts associated with climatic changes. Eight items were developed to measure farmers' concerns based on the adverse impacts addressed in previous research conducted in the study area. Farmers were asked to indicate their concern on a 4-point Likert-type scale, where 1 = Not Concerned and 4 = Very Concerned. The fourth part of the survey explored farmers' perceptions of the role of agricultural extension in capacity building with regard to climate change issues. Ten statements were adopted and modified as regards different areas of capacity building that agricultural extension can provide [27]. Farmers were asked to rate the level of importance of these statements on a 5-point Likert-type scale, where 1 = Strongly disagree and 5 = Strongly agree. Total concern scores were calculated out of 100 and divided into three categories according to the following range: Low ≤ 50%, Moderate = 50-75%, and High ≥ 75%.

Data Analysis
Descriptive statistics, using frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations, were used to address the research objectives. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was employed to determine if farmers' beliefs and concerns regarding climate change differed across the demographic variables of age, level of education, type of crop, farm size, and level of soil fertility. A t-test was used for the variables: membership of agricultural cooperatives, access to loans, and access to extension services. The significance of differences was tested based on the summed scores of farmers' beliefs and concerns.
Principle axis factoring (PAF) was performed to extract factors from the statements related to climate change that asked farmers to rate their level of agreement. The PAF analysis used correlation matrix and varimax rotation to extract factors based on eigenvalues, and the results produced two factors, explaining 49.53% of the total variance. The items representing Factors 1 and 2 were based on their factor loading values. Items grouped under Factor 2 were determined to further analyze group respondents based on their beliefs regarding the occurrence of climate change. The K-mean cluster analysis of Factor 2 items produced two clusters of respondents. An independent sample t-test of those clusters was conducted for the two items to examine the characteristics of respondents in the two groups. The two clusters were used to study farmers' perceptions of the role of extension agents in building climate change adaptation capacity. Table 1 describes the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents. The results indicated that 40.3% of the farmers are aged between 51 and 60 years, with an average age of 47.1 years. Nearly half of the respondents (50.3%) have an education attainment level less than high school completion Agriculture 2020, 10, 253 5 of 15 (50.3%) and only 17.2% have a bachelor's degree. With regard to farming experience, 49.7% farmers reported they have worked in the agriculture sector from 11 to 20 years, with an average of 15.06 years. More than half of the respondents (54%) revealed they do not access extension services. Most farms are characterized as small scale (47.7%), and the majority of respondents (64%) reported that they cultivated vegetables. Concerning soil fertility, the vast majority (88.9%) reported an average level of soil fertility on their farms, while only 3% reported highly fertile soil. Results also revealed that the overwhelming majority of respondents (91.9%) were not members of agricultural cooperatives, and that 86.3% have not accessed loans from agricultural banks.

Farmers' Beliefs about Climate Change
Farmers' beliefs regarding climate change are presented in Table 2. The results demonstrate that the majority of farmers agree or strongly agree that variable or unusual weather is caused by human activities (89.6%), natural change (93.3%), or natural change and human activities combined (81%). Meanwhile, 42% of respondents believed that there is no evidence that climate change is occurring, and 54.6% believed that such evidence exists. Furthermore, 18% of the farmers believed that climate change is not occurring. Farmers are classified into three categories such as high, moderate and low based on their level of beliefs ( Figure 2). Farmers who have high beliefs are confident in the truth or existence of climate change and attributed it to human activities and natural change. In other words, they are likely to adapt to climate change. Conversely, farmers with a low level of beliefs perceive that the climate is not changing and may not act in the same sense. Findings, as illustrated in Figure 2, show that the majority of farmers (65.6%) have moderate beliefs regarding the occurrence of climate change. Less than one-third of the respondents (30.7%) hold strong beliefs and only 1.7% hold low beliefs about climate change. This result is supported by the findings of Al-Mutairi et al. [13], who confirmed that 82% of the respondents in Tabouk region in North Saudi Arabia had a moderate level of beliefs regarding climate change. Furthermore, the results of Arbuckle et al. [14] showed that many American farmers believed that climate change is occurring and believe that adaptation strategies should be implemented. Ricart et al. [28] reported similar results in their analysis about the perception of climate change among farmers and the public in the EU. They conducted a desk review of different sources (literature, research projects, and public opinion services) over the period from 2008 to 2017. The study confirmed that climate change is interdependent with the belief that climate change is happening.
Agriculture 2020, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 16 Farmers are classified into three categories such as high, moderate and low based on their level of beliefs ( Figure 2). Farmers who have high beliefs are confident in the truth or existence of climate change and attributed it to human activities and natural change. In other words, they are likely to adapt to climate change. Conversely, farmers with a low level of beliefs perceive that the climate is not changing and may not act in the same sense. Findings, as illustrated in Figure 2, show that the majority of farmers (65.6%) have moderate beliefs regarding the occurrence of climate change. Less than one-third of the respondents (30.7%) hold strong beliefs and only 1.7% hold low beliefs about climate change. This result is supported by the findings of Al-Mutairi et al. [13], who confirmed that 82% of the respondents in Tabouk region in North Saudi Arabia had a moderate level of beliefs regarding climate change. Furthermore, the results of Arbuckle et al. [14] showed that many American farmers believed that climate change is occurring and believe that adaptation strategies should be implemented. Ricart et al. [28] reported similar results in their analysis about the perception of climate change among farmers and the public in the EU. They conducted a desk review of different sources (literature, research projects, and public opinion services) over the period from 2008 to 2017. The study confirmed that climate change is interdependent with the belief that climate change is happening.  To better understand farmers' beliefs, PAF was used to group items of belief into specific factors, as presented in Table 3. Two factors were extracted, explaining 49.53% of the total variance. Based on their factor loading values, Factor 1 comprised three items: (1) climate change is occurring because of human activity, (2) climate change is occurring because of natural change, and (3) climate change is occurring because of both human and natural changes. In contrast, Factor 2 included two items: (1) there is a lack of evidence that climate change is occurring and (2) climate change is not occurring. Items grouped under Factor 2 were selected for further analysis to group respondents based on their beliefs regarding the occurrence of climate change using K-mean cluster analysis (Table 4). Two clusters were identified, namely, Cluster 1 comprising 128 respondents and Cluster 2 comprising 35 respondents. The independent sample t-test results between the two clusters confirmed that Cluster 2 respondents believe less in the occurrence of climate change than Cluster 1 respondents. In other words, farmers in Cluster 1 believe in the occurrence of climate change.

Farmers' Concerns Regarding Climate Change
Farmers' concerns about the adverse impacts of climate change that they noticed on their own farms are listed in Table 5. Results indicated that farmers in the study area are moderately concerned about the harmful effects of climate change (summed score = 3.58). Pests, diseases, floods, and drought were the most observed impacts, with means of 3.31, 3.15, 3.15, and 3.11, respectively. These results are in line with the findings of Mase et al. [29], who argued that American farmers were most concerned with the impact of drought and increased heat stress on crops. Moreover, Orduño et al. [30], in their analysis about the most frequent weather patterns in Mexico, found that farmers were concerned about floods, hail, diseases, pests, and weed growth incidence.
Grouping farmers into three categories, as shown in Figure 3, indicates that farmers who have a high level of concern regarding climate change have greater interest in the impacts of climate change on their farming systems and livelihood. On the contrary, less concerned farmers are not worried about potential problems on their farms due to climate change. This attitude may affect their behavior toward implementing both adaptive and mitigative management strategies. As Figure 3 shows, most farmers (54.3%) are moderately concerned about climate change and almost a quarter (24.1%) have a high level of concern. In addition, only 21.6% of the farmers had low concern, indicating that the problems they encountered on their farms are believed to be the result of climate variability. In the Saudi Arabian context, Al-Mutairi et al. [13] established that 74% of respondents had moderate levels of concern regarding the impacts of climate change. In USA, Grimberg et al. [31] found that 48.3% of farmers reported being concerned about climate change, while 86.7% reported being somewhat to very concerned about the impacts of climate change on agricultural production.  Grouping farmers into three categories, as shown in Figure 3, indicates that farmers who have a high level of concern regarding climate change have greater interest in the impacts of climate change on their farming systems and livelihood. On the contrary, less concerned farmers are not worried about potential problems on their farms due to climate change. This attitude may affect their behavior toward implementing both adaptive and mitigative management strategies. As Figure 3 shows, most farmers (54.3%) are moderately concerned about climate change and almost a quarter (24.1%) have a high level of concern. In addition, only 21.6% of the farmers had low concern, indicating that the problems they encountered on their farms are believed to be the result of climate variability. In the Saudi Arabian context, Al-Mutairi et al. [13] established that 74% of respondents had moderate levels of concern regarding the impacts of climate change. In USA, Grimberg et al. [31] found that 48.3% of farmers reported being concerned about climate change, while 86.7% reported being somewhat to very concerned about the impacts of climate change on agricultural production.   Table 6 shows a significant difference in beliefs regarding climate change between members and non-members of agricultural cooperatives (p < 0.05). The effect size of the difference between the summed means of these two groups was moderate (Cohen's d = 0.65). This means that farmers who are members of agricultural cooperatives are less likely to believe in the occurrence of climate change (mean = 17.50) than non-members (mean = 19.82). Despite the importance of agricultural cooperatives in enabling members to manage climate risks and adapt to climate change [32], the membership of an agricultural cooperative is not an influencing factor on increasing farmers' beliefs. This is partly due to a weak role of agricultural cooperatives in enhancing farmers' perception about farming problems, as indicated during the interviews. This role affects the vast majority of the respondents in joining the cooperatives. Individual farmers deal with different stakeholders in the agricultural value chain to Agriculture 2020, 10, 253 9 of 15 purchase inputs and for crop marketing more than farmers who belonged to cooperatives. This tendency may facilitate non-members to access more information about climate change and exchange views with others. The finding is consistent with the results achieved by Ado et al. [33], who found that membership of agricultural cooperatives does not significantly affect farmers' awareness of climate change. With regard to farmers' concerns, Table 6 shows no significant difference between members and non-members of agricultural cooperatives (p > 0.05).

Access to Loans
Access to loans represented a significant difference in farmers' beliefs at the 0.01 level (Table 6). Farmers who have not received loans from agricultural banks have higher level climate change beliefs (mean = 19.81) compared to farmers who have received loans (mean = 18.30). Based on the summed score, the differences in the mean represent a moderate effect (Cohen's d = 0.49). Access to credit plays a critical role in enhancing farmers' perception of climatic changes and transforming agribusiness models to be more climate-smart and inclusive for small farmers [34]. During the field study, we noticed that some farmers who have not received loans adopted climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. Farmers who establish these investments often are motivated not only by direct costs and returns but also by increased resilience, a higher degree of certainty regarding future revenue streams, and the prospect of reduced volatility [35]. The findings in Table 6 also show significant differences in farmers' concerns, according to whether or not they received loans from agricultural banks (t = 3.74; p < 0.05). Regarding the size of differences between the two groups, the result of Cohen's d = 0.94 showed a high level of difference, meaning that farmers who accessed loans have a significantly higher level of concern in relation to climate change (mean = 26.60) than those who did not access loans (mean = 22.42). This is supported by the findings of research by Fosu-Mensah et al. [36] and Debela et al. [37], that indicated that increased access to agricultural loans will further enhance farmers' concerns about climate change and result in better management of climate-induced risks. Table 6 shows that farmers who have not accessed extension services have significantly higher beliefs in climate change compared to those who have accessed to extension services (t = 6.35; p < 0.05), and the difference in the mean represents a significant effect (Cohen's d = 0.98). It is surprising to find that the use of extension services does not affect farmers' beliefs in climate change. In general, farmers who have access to extension services will have more awareness; however, there is no evidence that, in Saudi Arabia during the past five years, extension programs about climate change and adaptation have been delivered to farmers. Therefore, it is certain that extension will not have an effect due to the lack of both knowledge among farmers and extension agents. This result corresponds to the findings of previous research [36,38,39].

Level of Education
Results of the one-way ANOVA (Table 7) revealed no significant differences in farmers' beliefs (F = 0.93; p > 0.05) or concerns (F = 0.44; p > 0.05) based on the level of educational attainment. Table 7 shows that that there are no significant differences in farmers' beliefs or concerns based on the type of farming activities at the 0.05 level.

Types of Farming Activities
3.4.6. Soil Fertility Table 7 shows the results of the one-way ANOVA. Results indicated significant differences in farmers' beliefs regarding climate change depending on soil fertility (F = 4.21; p < 0.05). The size difference between the groups was low (partial eta squared = 0.05). The Games-Howell post hoc test indicated that farmers who own farms with average soil fertility (mean = 19.85) have a significantly higher mean as compared to other groups. This confirms that soil fertility level is a significant determinant of farmers' beliefs regarding climate change. Soil fertility is an important factor in climate change adaptation. According to Stucker and López-Gunn [40], soil fertility, water availability and timing, and resilience to natural disasters are the most important factors in determining whether crop yields increase or decrease in any given year. Such factors are the main determinants of both livelihood security and environmental health. This finding is supported by the work of both Fosu-Mensah et al. [36] and Huong et al. [38], who found that farmers with fertile soil are more likely to adopt climate change adaptation practices. However, no significant differences were found in farmers' concerns based on levels of soil fertility (F = 2.58; p > 0.05). Table 7 demonstrates that farmers' age had a significant effect on their beliefs about climate change (F = 5.22; p > 0.01). The size differences between means of the groups was small (partial eta squared = 0.090). The group age of 51 to 60 years had a significantly higher mean (mean = 20.52) than other groups, according to the results of the Games-Howell post hoc test. This means that older farmers in the study area indicated higher levels of beliefs regarding climate change. As noted by Bonem et al. [41], older farmers had more farming experience and rated themselves as more likely to observe the problems or changes over time than young farmers. This result is in agreement with the findings of Shrestha and Baral's [42] research, but is inconsistent with the findings of some other research [38,43]. In contrast, no significant differences were found regarding farmers' concerns.

Farm Size
Results showed that farm size is considered a determinant of beliefs about climate change, and it has a significant effect on the farmers' beliefs at the p < 0.01 level of significance (Table 7). Specifically, larger farm size is associated with higher levels of belief about climate change. A larger farm size generally implies greater overall economic losses if crops are damaged, forcing larger-scale farmers to acquire information about climate change to mitigate potential risks [18]. This suggests that a larger farm size enhances farmers' beliefs about climate variability, while the risk of climate change to smaller farms may increase. This finding is supported by Mustafa et al. [39], who discovered that, in Pakistan, farmers' levels of belief were determined by farm size. However, the results revealed no significant differences in farmers' concerns regarding farm size.

Farmers' Climate Change Capacity Building
Farmers' perceptions of the role of agricultural extension in building their climate change adaptive capacity were examined for the two clusters of beliefs (Table 8). Results revealed that farmers in Cluster 1 reported higher means compared to those in Cluster 2. In other words, farmers who are more likely to believe in climate change are relatively more in agreement with the role of extension services in capacity building than those with less belief in the occurrence of climate change. However, independent sample t-test results showed a statistically significant difference between the two clusters for three statements: farmers' food storage, processing, and utilization training (t = 2.64; p = 0.009); awareness creation and building capacity of extension staff (t = 3.17; p = 0.002); and use of information communication technologies to create awareness (t = 2.91; p = 0.004). These results reflect the crucial role that extension services continue to play in dealing with farming challenges, including cross-cutting issues such as climate change. Kalimba and Culas [44] suggested that governments should invest in extension services to facilitate information dissemination, change farmers' attitudes, implement training programs, and network with other stakeholders interested in climate change issues to strengthen extension services to meet the specific needs of farmers.

Conclusions
This study provided insights into Saudi Arabian farmers' beliefs and concerns regarding climate change. Results indicated that most farmers in the study area believed that climate change is caused by human activities and natural change. Furthermore, the majority of farmers are concerned about insects and disease pressures, flooding, and an increase in heat stress on crops. Although the findings emphasize the weakness of extension services in increasing the awareness of climate change, the respondents who are more likely to believe in climate change argued that extension could play a significant future role in capacity building. The study provides useful implications for policy makers. Implementing innovative extension approaches for climate-smart agriculture are crucial to encourage farmers and rural communities to adopt suitable adaptation strategies. Therefore, there is a need for reviewing the best practices adopted by the other countries to strengthen the contribution of extension in combating climate change. One of the successful stories is the implementation of the Farmer Field Schools (FFS) approach. FFS promote social learning among farmers by developing problem-solving skills, increasing their technical knowledge, and enhancing their decision-making abilities. This in turn has potential to have a major impact on farmers' understanding of the different components of an agroecosystem. Establishing plant clinics is another innovative approach. Plant clinics provide diagnosis of and recommendations for any problem and any crop, and snapshots of problems on farmers' fields are fed into a global knowledge bank. The outcome of this approach is to increase the farming system efficiency by reducing crop losses. This contributes to climate change mitigation by reducing both direct and indirect emissions. In addition, awareness campaigns using information technologies, such as social media, should be designed to improve farmers' access to climate change information and, therefore, enhance farmers' levels of adaptation. Future research should examine the relationship between farmers' beliefs and concerns regarding the impact of climate change, as well as farmers' risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and the factors that influence their beliefs, concerns, attitudes, and behaviors relating to climate change. This study was limited to Abu Arish governorate of Jazan region. The results may not be generalizable to farmers who live in different geographic regions. Therefore, it is recommended that similar research be conducted in other parts of Saudi Arabia that are more prone to climate change disasters.