Analysis of the Evolution of the Policy of Linking the Increase and Decrease in Urban and Rural Construction Land in China Based on the Content Analysis Method

: The policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land is a land policy that gradually forms and develops to solve the contradiction between “food and construction” under the background of urbanization in China. It is of great significance to the sustainable development of China’s social economy. In order to grasp the evolution of the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land in China as a whole, this paper used the content analysis method to analyze the changes in the content of China’s urban − rural construction land increase/decrease linkage policy from different perspectives, such as the levels of policy promulgation and the types of policy promulgation. Firstly, 105 directly related policy texts were selected from a large amount of policy information and read in detail with this as a sample, and 11 keywords were extracted, which were “balance of occupation and compensation”, “clear property rights”, “reasonable planning”, “project area”


Introduction
With the acceleration of modernization, the demand for land in cities continues to grow, and much of the cultivated around cities is occupied, but there is a large amount of unused and inefficiently used land in the countryside [1].Land use in China is facing a transformation from extensive to intensive.Improving the efficiency of construction land use is particularly critical for tapping the potential of land and promoting sustained and healthy economic growth.In this context, the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land came into being.Since the birth of the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land, it has effectively alleviated the contradiction between the growth of urban and rural construction land Land 2024, 13, 329 2 of 15 and the protection of cultivated land, but there are also many problems exposed by the implementation of the policy.It is of great practical significance to analyze the evolution of the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land to improve this policy.
The policy of linking the increase and decrease can be traced back to the system of land development rights in Britain and the United States [2,3].In fact, a policy design similar to the increase and decrease linkage has existed in the United States for a long time and has been running effectively for more than 40 years.These policy designs have played a very important role in protecting the farmland and ecological environment of the United States [4][5][6][7].On the basis of land development rights and the reality of the contradiction between the shortage of construction land and the protection of cultivated land in China, Chinese scholars put forward the methods of construction land replacement, land consolidation offset, and construction land turnover in the late 1990s and gradually established the policy of linking the increase and decrease in China [8,9].In 2004, document No. 28 issued by the State Council formally proposed the linkage between the increase and decrease for the first time.In order to implement the policy of linking the increase and decrease, the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources issued a large number of documents and carried out pilot work under the leadership and organization of the Ministry of Land and Resources.At present, a total of 29 provinces and municipalities have been approved to carry out the pilot work, and Chongqing land tickets were initially explored and created [10,11].Other models that have been explored include the Guizhou model [12,13], the Tianjin "Homestead for Housing" Model [14], Zhejiang's "two-fortwo" model [15,16], the Jiangsu "Ten Thousand Hectares of Fertile Farmland Construction Project" [17,18], and other typical empirical patterns.With the pilot work, from top to bottom, from the central government to local governments, from the Ministry of Land and Resources to governments at all levels, from management to the masses, the understanding of the policy of linking the increase and decrease is deepening.The pilot work has also achieved great results, to a certain extent, in alleviating the contradiction between the shortage of construction land and the protection of cultivated land, but the pilot work has also exposed some shortcomings in the process of operation [19].With the development of the pilot project, the increase and decrease linkage has attracted the attention of academic circles, and scholars have had in-depth discussions on its nature, positive role, and existing problems and have made suggestions related to the increase and decrease linkage [20][21][22].In general, the increase in linkage can increase farmers' incomes, adjust the agricultural structure, protect cultivated land, increase public finance, optimize the structure of land use and improve the efficiency of the use of construction land [20,21,[23][24][25].However, there are also some problems, such as the blind behavior of quick success and instant benefit, demolition and construction, the lack of a legal basis, the inappropriateness and dislocation of the index scale, uncoordinated planning, disrespect for farmers' wishes and rights, and the improper use of funds.At the same time, some scholars believe that the linkage between the increase and decrease is not conducive to the protection of village culture [26][27][28].In view of these problems, scholars have put forward many suggestions for the aspects of fund management, special planning, safeguarding farmers' rights and interests, and strengthening supervision [29][30][31].The central government has made the road toward the linkage between the increase and decrease clear, but the specific practical operation still needs specific policies from top to bottom and at different levels for regulation and implementation.In view of this, this paper used a content analysis method to select 105 directly related policy texts from different levels of government as samples, extracted 11 keywords and created an analytical framework for policy texts with three aspects: the stage of policy development, the levels of the policy promulgation, and the types of the policy promulgation.The quantitative data of the policy evolution were obtained using concise coding statistics of the policy texts.Then, the evolution and characteristics of the policy were analyzed, the shortcomings of the current policy were analyzed, and some suggestions were put forward to promote the further improvement of urban and rural construction land policies.

Content Analysis
Content analysis is a method of quantifying text content, which has the characteristics of systematicness, objectivity, and quantification [32].It extracts the keywords and sentences in the target text and transforms the data expressed by language (non-quantity) into those expressed by quantity.It then expresses results with statistics and further analyzes the content of the text to identify rules that reflect the essence of the text content and are easy to count and to obtain rules that can be tested and explained [33].Because the content analysis can analyze any document or recorded communication event and overcome the subjectivity and uncertainty of general qualitative research, it has been widely used in communication studies [34], public policies [35,36], urban planning [37], land policy analysis [38,39], and other fields and has gradually developed into a complete and rigorous research system.Therefore, the use of content analysis is reasonable and scientific.

Data Source and Sample Selection
Taking the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land since 2000 as the research object, the relevant policies at the national level were searched first, that is, the official websites of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the State Council, and the Ministry of Land and Resources were directly searched.Then, the relevant policies at the provincial, municipal, and county levels were searched, and the official websites of local governments and relevant departments of land and resources at all levels were searched.Then, the relevant contents of the existing policy texts and the literature were used to further carry out retrospective retrieval and find policy texts closely related to the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land.In order to ensure the accuracy, relevance, and representativeness of the selected policy texts, the rules for selecting and sorting the policy texts were as follows: (1) The main content of the policy or part of the content was directly related to the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land, that is, it had a high degree of relevance.(2) The policy needed to be a legislative document or another normative policy document such as an opinion, implementation plan, notice, or measure formulated by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the State Council, the Ministry of Land and Resources, local governments at all levels, or relevant departments of land and resources at all levels.Finally, the results of the effective policy samples were as follows: there were 105 effective policy samples, of which 21 were issued at the national level, 50 were issued at the provincial level, and the remaining 34 were issued at the local city and county level.

Policy Text Analysis Framework
By collecting, sorting and analyzing the relevant policy texts, the policy evolution text analysis framework of the 105 policy texts was created using the three aspects of the stage of policy development (the germination stage (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004), the development stage (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008), and the regulation stage (2009 to present)), the levels of policy promulgation (policies issued by the CPC Central Committee, laws enacted by the National People's Congress, policies issued by the State Council and relevant ministries and commissions, and policies issued by local governments), and the types of policy promulgation (party guidelines, laws and regulations, notification opinions, implementation plans, and management measures), as shown in Figure 1.

Content Coding and Keywords of the Policy Texts
The 105 policy texts were numbered from 1 to 105, and then, the specific clauses in the policy texts relating to the keywords were coded.For example, 1-3-22 represents Section 3, clause 22 of the first policy, which relates to keyword C (reasonable planning), as shown in Table 1.According to the text content, the main ideas and changes of the policy and the keywords of the policy text content were determined.A total of 11 keywords of the text content were determined, namely A-balance of occupation and compensation (as much cultivated land is occupied, it must be replenished with cultivated land of comparable quantity and quality.),B-clear property rights (land ownership and use rights are clearly defined to avoid disputes over property rights.),C-reasonable planning (the area, scale, and layout of the linkage project are determined in a scientific and reasonable manner in accordance with the land use plan.),D-project area (the specific area for the implementation of the linkage policy, which usually involves the demolition of the old area and the construction of the new area.),E-turnover index (to control the scale and cycle of linkage, the State and the Province approve and issue a certain number of land-use scales to relevant counties for a specified period.),F-linkage procedure (specific steps and procedures for implementing the linkage policy.),G-voluntary principle (it is important to ensure that farmers participate voluntarily and make their own decisions when implementing the linkage policy.),H-resettlement compensation (farmers whose land is demolished and resettled due to the implementation of the Linkages Policy are provided with appropriate resettlement and compensation to ensure that their standard of living and production conditions are not lower than before demolition and resettlement.),I-cultivated land protection (cultivated land resources must be effectively protected to ensure that the area of cultivated land is not reduced, and its quality is not lowered in the expansion-reduction linkage policy.),J-supervision and management (in order to ensure effective implementation of the policy and smooth achievement of its objectives, the implementation process of the Linkage Policy will be closely monitored and managed.), and K-capital finance and taxation (ensure that the

Content Coding and Keywords of the Policy Texts
The 105 policy texts were numbered from 1 to 105, and then, the specific clauses in the policy texts relating to the keywords were coded.For example, 1-3-22 represents Section 3, clause 22 of the first policy, which relates to keyword C (reasonable planning), as shown in Table 1.According to the text content, the main ideas and changes of the policy and the keywords of the policy text content were determined.A total of 11 keywords of the text content were determined, namely A-balance of occupation and compensation (as much cultivated land is occupied, it must be replenished with cultivated land of comparable quantity and quality), B-clear property rights (land ownership and use rights are clearly defined to avoid disputes over property rights), C-reasonable planning (the area, scale, and layout of the linkage project are determined in a scientific and reasonable manner in accordance with the land use plan), D-project area (the specific area for the implementation of the linkage policy, which usually involves the demolition of the old area and the construction of the new area), E-turnover index (to control the scale and cycle of linkage, the State and the Province approve and issue a certain number of landuse scales to relevant counties for a specified period), F-linkage procedure (specific steps and procedures for implementing the linkage policy), G-voluntary principle (it is important to ensure that farmers participate voluntarily and make their own decisions when implementing the linkage policy), H-resettlement compensation (farmers whose land is demolished and resettled due to the implementation of the Linkages Policy are provided with appropriate resettlement and compensation to ensure that their standard of living and production conditions are not lower than before demolition and resettlement), I-cultivated land protection (cultivated land resources must be effectively protected to ensure that the area of cultivated land is not reduced, and its quality is not lowered in the expansion-reduction linkage policy), J-supervision and management (in order to ensure effective implementation of the policy and smooth achievement of its objectives, the implementation process of the Linkage Policy will be closely monitored and managed), and K-capital finance and taxation (ensure that the source and use of funds for the project

Text Frequency Statistics
On the basis of a careful reading of these 105 policy texts, the keywords of each policy text were counted to form an analysis unit coding table, and the frequencies of these keywords in three different periods (the embryonic stage, development stage, and normative stage) were counted, as shown in Table 2.In the germination stage (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004), the relevant policy documents mainly regulated the principle of the balance between occupation and replenishment and the turnover index of the linkage work.During the development stage (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008), issues such as cultivated land protection and monitoring and funding of linkage work began to receive government attention.The content of the policy was gradually enriched.In the regulation stage (2009 to present), there was a significant increase in the frequency of each of the 11 keywords, with rational planning, the project area, and the turnover index being the three most frequent keywords.

Analysis of Changes in Policy Quantity
Generally speaking, since 2000, the number of policies linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land in China has shown a fluctuating upward trend, as shown in Figure 2. The Land Management Law of the People's Republic of China in 1987 formulated a major policy for China's land management activities.From 1987 to 2000 was the gestation period of the linkage policy, and no policy on linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural land was promulgated.From 2000 to 2004, the policy of linkage between the increase and decrease began to grow, and the release of relevant documents laid the ideological foundation for the linkage between the increase and decrease.In 2004, the State Council issued document No. 28.The linkage between the increase and decrease was formally put forward in that document.The total number of relevant policy texts issued in the whole embryonic stage was five, with an average of one per year.From 2005 to 2008, during the development stage of the increase and decrease linkage work, the linkage policy was promulgated every year, and the number fluctuated and increased, totaling 9 items, with an average of 2.25 items per year.Since 2009, the work of linking the increase and decrease has entered the normative stage, during which a large number of relevant documents have been issued, totaling 91 items, with an average of 10.11 items per year.In 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2016, the number of policies issued was more than 10, and the number of policies in 2011 was as high as 25.

Analysis of Changes in Policy Quantity
Generally speaking, since 2000, the number of policies linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land in China has shown a fluctuating upward trend, as shown in Figure 2. The Land Management Law of the People's Republic of China in 1987 formulated a major policy for China's land management activities.From 1987 to 2000 was the gestation period of the linkage policy, and no policy on linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural land was promulgated.From 2000 to 2004, the policy of linkage between the increase and decrease began to grow, and the release of relevant documents laid the ideological foundation for the linkage between the increase and decrease.In 2004, the State Council issued document No. 28.The linkage between the increase and decrease was formally put forward in that document.The total number of relevant policy texts issued in the whole embryonic stage was five, with an average of one per year.From 2005 to 2008, during the development stage of the increase and decrease linkage work, the linkage policy was promulgated every year, and the number fluctuated and increased, totaling 9 items, with an average of 2.25 items per year.Since 2009, the work of linking the increase and decrease has entered the normative stage, during which a large number of relevant documents have been issued, totaling 91 items, with an average of 10.11 items per year.In 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2016, the number of policies issued was more than 10, and the number of policies in 2011 was as high as 25.

Levels of Policy Promulgation
According to the levels of policy promulgation, since 2000, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has promulgated 1 item (0.95%), the National People's Congress has promulgated 1 item (0.95%), the State Council and relevant ministries and commissions have promulgated 19 items (18.10%), and local governments at all levels have promulgated 84 items (80.00%).Among them, 50 (47.62%)were issued by provincial governments, and 34 (32.38%) were issued by municipal and county governments, as shown in Table 3.It can be seen that in recent years, local governments have promulgated more policies on urban and rural construction land, and half of them have been management measures promulgated at the municipal and county levels.According to the types of policy promulgation, the policies linked to the increase and decrease included 1 party guideline (accounting for 0.95%), 1 law or regulation (accounting for 0.95%), 55 notification opinions (accounting for 52.38%), and 48 management measures (accounting for 45.71%), as shown in Table 4. Generally speaking, increase and decrease linkage work has been carried out under the guidance of a small number of laws and regulations and the Party's policies; on this basis, it has been standardized by issuing a large number of opinions and notices.At the same time, local governments have issued a large number of relatively detailed and specific management measures, implementation plans, and operation rules to strengthen the control of the linkage process according to the actual situation of each region.
Table 4. Types of the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land.

Management Measures Total
Quantity According to the levels of the policies promulgation, 20% of the policies linked to the increase and decrease were issued at the national level, which is relatively small, while 80% of the normative documents were issued by local governments, which is relatively large.Among them, the central policy was mainly promulgated by the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources.In addition, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the National People's Congress have issued directly related policies, which shows that the central level attaches importance to and supports the policy of linking the increase and decrease in construction land.According to the classified statistical results of the types of the policies promulgation, most of the policies were issued in the form of notices, opinions, management methods, implementation plans, and operation rules, and the level of effectiveness was relatively low, so they cannot play a better normative role.Through a comparative analysis of the levels and types, it was found that under the overall arrangement of the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources, most provinces in China have carried out a large number of pilot projects, reflecting the overall situation and the integrity of the national policy trend.The national policy and the policies issued by local governments based on grass-roots management practices interact, and they are promoted and closely linked.

Analysis of the Evolution of Policy Content
Observing the frequency statistics of the linked policy texts, we found that the policy content reflected three stages: the germination stage, the development stage, and the regulation stage.In the germination stage, "balance of occupation and compensation", "clear property rights", "reasonable planning", "project area", "turnover indicators", and "resettlement compensation" appeared for the first time, as shown in Figure 3 (red means the time period of the first appearance of the keyword).With the gradual advancement of the pilot work linking the increase and decrease, "cultivated land protection", "supervision and management", "capital finance and taxation", "linkage procedure", and "voluntary principle" were added during the development and regulation stage.The policy content was constantly enriched and improved.
Land 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 15 better normative role.Through a comparative analysis of the levels and types, it was found that under the overall arrangement of the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources, most provinces in China have carried out a large number of pilot projects, reflecting the overall situation and the integrity of the national policy trend.The national policy and the policies issued by local governments based on grass-roots management practices interact, and they are promoted and closely linked.

Analysis of the Evolution of Policy Content
Observing the frequency statistics of the linked policy texts, we found that the policy content reflected three stages: the germination stage, the development stage, and the regulation stage.In the germination stage, "balance of occupation and compensation", "clear property rights", "reasonable planning", "project area", "turnover indicators", and "resettlement compensation" appeared for the first time, as shown in Figure 3 (red means the time period of the first appearance of the keyword).With the gradual advancement of the pilot work linking the increase and decrease, "cultivated land protection", "supervision and management", "capital finance and taxation", "linkage procedure", and "voluntary principle" were added during the development and regulation stage.The policy content was constantly enriched and improved.The period from 1987 to 2000 was the gestation stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease.In this stage, there was no clear policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural land.The Land Management Law of the People's Republic of China in 1987 formulated a major policy for land management activities in China and established the principles of "cultivated land protection" and the "balance of occupation and compensation".As a land consolidation strategy, "increase and decrease linked" has actually begun to emerge since 1990, and some places have tried to use land consolidation, land replacement, and other methods in small areas to revitalize land for urban construction.
The period from 2000 to 2004 was the embryonic stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease, and the policy of linking appeared sporadically, as shown in  The period from 1987 to 2000 was the gestation stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease.In this stage, there was no clear policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural land.The Land Management Law of the People's Republic of China in 1987 formulated a major policy for land management activities in China and established the principles of "cultivated land protection" and the "balance of occupation and compensation".As a land consolidation strategy, "increase and decrease linked" has actually begun to emerge since 1990, and some places have tried to use land consolidation, land replacement, and other methods in small areas to revitalize land for urban construction.
The period from 2000 to 2004 was the embryonic stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease, and the policy of linking appeared sporadically, as shown in Land Management to Promote the Healthy Development of Small Towns), and the term "Construction Land Turnover Index" was clearly put forward for the first time in this policy document.Although the increase and decrease linkage had not been proposed at this time, the policy had begun to germinate.In 2004, the State Council issued the Decision on Deepening Reform and Strict Land Management (Guofa (2004), No. 28), which was the first document to link the increase and decrease, with the aim of strengthening the implementation and management of overall land use planning, urban master planning, and village and town planning.
through land consolidation and land replacement, to revitalize urban and rural construction land, and to make up for the lack of land for urban construction and industrial development.After that, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued document No. 337 (Notice on Strengthening Land Management to Promote the Healthy Development of Small Towns), and the term "Construction Land Turnover Index" was clearly put forward for the first time in this policy document.Although the increase and decrease linkage had not been proposed at this time, the policy had begun to germinate.In 2004, the State Council issued the Decision on Deepening Reform and Strict Land Management (Guofa (2004), No. 28), which was the first document to link the increase and decrease, with the aim of strengthening the implementation and management of overall land use planning, urban master planning, and village and town planning.Preliminary exploration formed typical models such as the Chongqing land ticket, the "Guizhou model", the Tianjin "homestead for housing" model, the Zhejiang "two-for-two" model, and the Jiangsu "ten thousand hectares of fertile land construction project".With the pilot work, from top to bottom, from the central government to local governments, from the Ministry of Land and Resources to governments at all levels, from management to the masses, the understanding of the policy of linking the increase and decrease is deepening.The pilot work has also achieved great results, to a certain extent, to alleviate the contradiction between the shortage of construction land and the protection of cultivated land, but the pilot work has also exposed some shortcomings in the process of operation.
The period from 2009 to now was the normative stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease, during which a large number of relevant documents were issued, totaling 91 items, with an average of 10.11 items per year.In 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2016, the number of policies issued was more than 10, and the number of policies in 2011 was as high as 25.Since 2009, the Ministry of Land and Resources has adjusted the management means, planned the linked indicators annually, coordinated the overall indicators used by the Ministry of Land and Resources and approved the specific indicators used by local authorities.In December 2010, the State Council issued a document calling for strict standardization of the pilot work and steady promotion of land consolidation.In 2011, the Ministry of Land and Resources promulgated document No. 957, which calls for strengthening the supervision of the linkage between the increase and decrease.In 2014, the Ministry of Finance issued a document to regulate fiscal and taxation issues related to the linkage between the increase and decrease.It requires linked funds to be managed by "two lines of revenue and expenditure", establishes the project expenditure budget and final accounts system and puts forward the requirements for tax and fee incentives and debt control.In 2016, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued document No. 2, linking the increase and decrease with poverty alleviation.Under the guidance of national policies, provinces and municipalities have also issued relevant opinions and implementation plans to carry out this work.From various policies, we can see that "voluntary farmers" and "compensation and resettlement" have been paid more and more attention to by governments at all levels.At this stage, the five keywords of "rational planning", "project area", "turnover index", "supervision and management", and "capital finance and taxation" appear most frequently, which is reflected to a certain extent in various policy requirements, as shown in Figure 4.This is because the shortage of indicators is one of the core problems faced by all parts of the country.The linked fund management is also related to the direct interests of the relevant subjects.The whole linked system cannot be separated from a reasonable, scientific, and strict supervision and management mechanism to ensure the legitimate and reasonable implementation of the linked policy.At the same time, the project development also needs to conform to the planning, and the selection of the project area is also very important.

The Effectiveness of the Implementation of the Increase and Decrease Linkage Policy Needs to Be Further Improved
At present, the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land has been implemented nationwide, and the relevant policies at the national level not only clearly define the connotation, scope, and principles of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land, but also construct the basic framework for linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land at the macro-level.Local governments have issued corresponding notices, management measures, and implementation plans according to local conditions.Although the implementation of the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land has alleviated the contradiction between the shortage of construction land and the protection of cultivated land to a certain extent, the balance between the two has not yet been achieved.In the initial stage of the implementation of the increase-decrease linkage project, only the project areas personally approved by the Ministry of Land and Resources could carry out the increase-decrease linkage work.At this time, the local governments in the pilot areas have an accurate understanding of the policy objectives, effective policy implementation, and a full effect of the policy.However, since 2009, the Ministry of Land and Resources has only carried out total control, and the specific process is controlled by the local government.Because of the existence of the basic national policy of cultivated land protection, the central government chooses to tighten the index of urban construction land when issuing it, and the scarcity of the index of urban construction land limits the development of the local economy.However, the land reclaimed as cultivated land struggles to produce higher incomes because of its low quality and scattered locations, and the phenomenon of abandonment has been prohibited repeatedly.The excessive use or intentional misinterpretation of the policy has prevented the policy from achieving its full effect and has deviated from the original intention of the policy of "protecting cultivated land and saving and intensive use of land".In addition, the income generated in the process of index trading is not effectively distributed.Most of the income is obtained by the government, and farmers' rights and interests are not effectively guaranteed, which leads to farmers' resistance to the policy of linking the increase and decrease.The credibility of the government is also reduced, and the effectiveness of the policy is greatly reduced.Although a large number of policies have been issued from the central government to all levels of government, only 20% of the policies are issued by the central government.Corresponding laws and regulations are lacking, the level of effectiveness is low, and they cannot play a strong normative role, as shown in Figure 5. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the legal status of the policy, strengthen the supervision and management, clarify the objectives of policy implementation and enhance the effectiveness of the policy.
effective policy implementation, and a full effect of the policy.However, since 2009, the Ministry of Land and Resources has only carried out total control, and the specific process is controlled by the local government.Because of the existence of the basic national policy of cultivated land protection, the central government chooses to tighten the index of urban construction land when issuing it, and the scarcity of the index of urban construction land limits the development of the local economy.However, the land reclaimed as cultivated land struggles to produce higher incomes because of its low quality and scattered locations, and the phenomenon of abandonment has been prohibited repeatedly.The excessive use or intentional misinterpretation of the policy has prevented the policy from achieving its full effect and has deviated from the original intention of the policy of "protecting cultivated land and saving and intensive use of land".In addition, the income generated in the process of index trading is not effectively distributed.Most of the income is obtained by the government, and farmers' rights and interests are not effectively guaranteed, which leads to farmers' resistance to the policy of linking the increase and decrease.The credibility of the government is also reduced, and the effectiveness of the policy is greatly reduced.Although a large number of policies have been issued from the central government to all levels of government, only 20% of the policies are issued by the central government.Corresponding laws and regulations are lacking, the level of effectiveness is low, and they cannot play a strong normative role, as shown in Figure 5. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the legal status of the policy, strengthen the supervision and management, clarify the objectives of policy implementation and enhance the effectiveness of the policy.

The Objectives of the Increase and Decrease Linkage Policy Constantly Changed in Different Periods
A distribution table of the policy texts was established, as shown in Table 5.Using the distribution table of the policy texts, this paper analyzed the distribution of the 11 keywords in the policy texts and the contents of the policy texts (text coding) in 3 periods.The objectives of the increase and decrease linkage policy constantly changed in different periods.According to the keywords of the 105 policy texts, it can be seen that in the embryonic stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease, the relevant policy texts mainly focused on the aspects of "balance of occupation and compensation", "clear property rights", "rational planning", "project area", "turnover index", and "resettlement compensation", although the link between the increase and decrease had not made.However, the term "turnover index of construction land" indicates the emergence of the linkage between the increase and decrease, which was clearly put forward in a document

The Objectives of the Increase and Decrease Linkage Policy Constantly Changed in Different Periods
A distribution table of the policy texts was established, as shown in Table 5.Using the distribution table of the policy texts, this paper analyzed the distribution of the 11 keywords in the policy texts and the contents of the policy texts (text coding) in 3 periods.The objectives of the increase and decrease linkage policy constantly changed in different periods.According to the keywords of the 105 policy texts, it can be seen that in the embryonic stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease, the relevant policy texts mainly focused on the aspects of "balance of occupation and compensation", "clear property rights", "rational planning", "project area", "turnover index", and "resettlement compensation", although the link between the increase and decrease had not made.However, the term "turnover index of construction land" indicates the emergence of the linkage between the increase and decrease, which was clearly put forward in a document by the State Council in 2004.This period was the conceptual link before the implementation of the work of linking the increase and decrease.The implementation of the policy of linking the increase and decrease is for the realization of the goal of cultivated land protection, so it is necessary to adhere to the strict balance system of occupation and compensation.At the same time, rational land planning and the clarification of various land areas can lay the foundation for the determination of various land use indicators, turnover indicators, and the definition of property rights to facilitate the linking of increase and decrease indicators.In the development stage of the increase and decrease linkage policy, the policy content focused on the definition of the connotation of the increase and decrease linkage, the determination of working principles and tasks, and the confirmation of turnover indicators and project areas.Therefore, supporting policies including keywords such as "supervision and management" and "capital finance and taxation" have been issued one after another to fully protect the rights and interests of farmers in the increase and decrease linkage policy.The normative stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease was a breakout period for policy documents, with a total of 91 policy documents issued.During this period, the five keywords of "rational planning", "project area", "turnover index", "supervision and management", and "capital finance and taxation" appeared most frequently.In the pilot process, although great achievements have been made, some shortcomings have also been exposed.It is not difficult to see that in different periods of the policy, the goal of the increase and decrease linkage policy always changed, but this change gradually tended to diversification and rationalization.

Conclusions
Based on a statistical analysis of 105 samples of the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) The scope of the policy is expanding.With the passage of time, pilot work linking the increase and decrease has been carried out continuously, and the number of linked policies has increased, which has almost been extended to the whole country.(2) The legal effect of the policy needs to be further improved.Although the scope of the linkage has spread to the whole country and a large number of policies have been issued from top to bottom, there are relatively few policies issued at the national level, and they are basically issued by the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources.Their status needs to be improved, and there is a lack of corresponding laws and regulations, which need to be formulated by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the National People's Congress.Most of the policies at the local level were issued in the form of notification opinions, working rules, management methods, implementation plans, etc., which have a lower level of effectiveness and cannot play a stronger normative role.(3) The policy is becoming more and more mature, and the policy objectives are becoming more and more reasonable.The linkage policy has gone through the embryonic stage, the development stage, and the normative stage and is now maturing.Governments at all levels still attach importance to the economic benefits brought by the linkage work, but they also attach great importance to the scientific planning of the linkage work, as well as the supervision and management of the linkage work.

Recommendations
Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the policy: (1) Efforts should be made to improve the legal status of the policy.Since the central policy is mostly promulgated by the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources and has not been upgraded to laws and regulations by the National People's Congress, it is suggested that the Land Management Law be amended with the idea of "equal access to the market, equal rights and equal prices" so as to bring collective construction land into the scope of application for use and at the same time liberalize the circulation of rural collective construction land.Then, the work of linking the increase and decrease should be promoted.(2) Changing "government-led" to "government-guided" and improving the relationship between the government and the market should be achieved.At present, the linkage work is mainly led by the government, and the linkage project areas and indicators are mainly decided by the government, with the color of the traditional planned economy, which is conducive to maintaining social stability but lacks the flexibility of the market mechanism, so we should properly introduce the market mechanism, respect the wishes of farmers and play the role of the market.For example, linked funds can be introduced into social financing.(3) We should strengthen the protection of cultivated land.Driven by interests, there are problems in some regions, such as "occupying first without approval", "occupying more", and "occupying the superior and compensating the inferior", which are extremely unfavorable to the maintenance of land quantity and quality.Therefore, we must clarify the principle of demolishing first and then building, resolutely refuse to approve situations with unequal land area and poor quality for "demolishing old areas" and strictly hold people accountable for violations of regulations.(4) The income distribution system should be improved.As important supporters and participants in the implementation of the policy, farmers should be reasonably compensated, and the value-added benefits generated by the implementation of the policy should be "used for the people".

Supplementary Materials:
The following supporting information can be downloaded at: https: //www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/land13030329/s1.Funding: This research was funded by the Later Funded Project of National Social Science Fund (22FGLB019), the Social Science Fund of Sichuan (SCJJ23ND45), the Soft Science Project of Sichuan (23RKX0107), and Sichuan university (2023CX20).

Data Availability Statement:
The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/Supplementary Material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Textual analysis framework for policy evolution.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Textual analysis framework for policy evolution.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Evolution of the number of policies linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Evolution of the number of policies linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land.

Figure 3 .
Figure 3.The time period of the first occurrence of the keyword.
Figure 4.In 2000, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued document No. 11 (Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of Small Towns).This document was a source of ideas to increase the linkage policy

Figure 3 .
Figure 3.The time period of the first occurrence of the keyword.

Figure 4 .
In 2000, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued document No. 11 (Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of Small Towns).This document was a source of ideas to increase the linkage policy through land consolidation and land replacement, to revitalize urban and rural construction land, and to make up for the lack of land for urban construction and industrial development.After that, Land 2024, 13, 329 9 of 15 the Ministry of Land and Resources issued document No. 337 (Notice on Strengthening

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Frequency statistics of policy texts since 2009.The period from 2005 to 2008 was the development stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease.In order to implement the policy of linking the increase and decrease, the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources issued a large number of documents and carried out pilot work linking the increase and decrease under the leadership and organization of the Ministry of Land and Resources.In 2005, the Ministry of Land and Resources formulated document No. 207, which clearly and meticulously stipulated the connotation, working principles, tasks, contents, turnover indicators, management of project areas and related supporting policies, and management of the linkage between the increase and decrease.In April 2006, under the organization of the Ministry of Land and Resources, the first batch of pilot projects linked to the increase and decrease was identified in five provinces and cities, namely Shandong, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Sichuan, of which the largest pilot project was in Shandong.In 2008, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued document No. 138, which further clarifies the principles, conditions, implementation process, and other key issues of the pilot work.In 2008 and 2009, 19 provinces were successively approved by the Ministry of Land and Resources to carry out pilot projects to increase linkages.On 23 October 2013, the Ministry of Land and Resources allowed 29 provinces to carry out pilot work.Preliminary exploration formed typical models such as the Chongqing land ticket, the "Guizhou model", the Tianjin "homestead for housing" model, the Zhejiang "two-for-two" model, and the Jiangsu "ten thousand hectares of fertile land construction project".With the pilot work, from top to bottom, from the central government to local governments, from the

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Frequency statistics of policy texts since 2009.The period from 2005 to 2008 was the development stage of the policy of linking the increase and decrease.In order to implement the policy of linking the increase and decrease, the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources issued a large number of documents and carried out pilot work linking the increase and decrease under the leadership and organization of the Ministry of Land and Resources.In 2005, the Ministry of Land and Resources formulated document No. 207, which clearly and meticulously stipulated the connotation, working principles, tasks, contents, turnover indicators, management of project areas and related supporting policies, and management of the linkage between the increase and decrease.In April 2006, under the organization of the Ministry of Land and Resources, the first batch of pilot projects linked to the increase and decrease was identified in five provinces and cities, namely Shandong, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Sichuan, of which the largest pilot project was in Shandong.In 2008, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued document No. 138, which further clarifies the principles, conditions, implementation process, and other key issues of the pilot work.In 2008 and 2009, 19 provinces were successively approved by the Ministry of Land and Resources to carry out pilot projects to increase linkages.On 23 October 2013, the Ministry of Land and Resources allowed 29 provinces to carry out pilot work.Preliminary exploration formed typical models such as the Chongqing land ticket, the "Guizhou model", the Tianjin "homestead for housing" model, the Zhejiang "two-for-two" model, and the Jiangsu "ten thousand hectares of fertile land construction project".With the pilot work, from top to bottom, from the central government to local governments, from the Ministry of Land and Resources to governments at all levels, from management to the masses, the understanding of the policy of linking the increase and decrease is deepening.The pilot work has also achieved great results, to a certain extent, to alleviate the contradiction between the shortage of construction land and

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Number of policies published by all levels of governments.

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Number of policies published by all levels of governments.

Table 2 .
Frequency statistics and proportions of the policy texts.

Table 2 .
Frequency statistics and proportions of the policy texts.

Table 3 .
Levels of the policy of linking the increase and decrease in urban and rural construction land.

Table 5 .
Distribution of policy texts.