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Article

Simulating the Evolution of Da Anglong Glacier, Western Tibetan Plateau over the 21st Century

by 1,2,3, 1,*, 4,5, 1,6 and 1,5,7,*
1
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4
Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 600500, China
5
CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
6
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Science, Glaciology Section, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
7
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, 96101 Rovaniemi, Finland
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Yaoming Ma and Guoqing Zhang
Water 2022, 14(2), 271; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020271
Received: 12 November 2021 / Revised: 10 January 2022 / Accepted: 12 January 2022 / Published: 17 January 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy and Water Cycles in the Third Pole)
We apply a three-dimensional (3D) full-Stokes model to simulate the evolution of Da Anglong Glacier, a large glacier in the western Tibetan Plateau from the year 2016 to 2098, using projected temperatures and precipitations from the 25-km-resolution RegCM4 nested within three Earth System Models (ESM) simulating the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The surface mass balance (SMB) is estimated by the degree-day method using a quadratic elevation-dependent precipitation gradient. A geothermal flux of 60 mW m-2 produces a better fit to measured surface velocity than lower heat fluxes and represents a new datum in this region of sparse heat flux observations. The ensemble mean simulated glacier volume loss during 2016–2098 amounts to 38% of the glacier volume in the year 2016 under RCP2.6 and 83% under RCP8.5. Simulation from 2016 to 2098 without ice dynamics leads to an underestimation of ice loss of 22–27% under RCP2.6 and 16–24% under RCP8.5, showing that ice dynamics play an important amplifying factor in ice loss for this glacier, unlike for small Tibetan glaciers where SMB dominates glacier change. View Full-Text
Keywords: Tibetan Plateau; glacier modeling; mass balance; full-Stokes model Tibetan Plateau; glacier modeling; mass balance; full-Stokes model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhao, W.; Zhao, L.; Tian, L.; Wolovick, M.; Moore, J.C. Simulating the Evolution of Da Anglong Glacier, Western Tibetan Plateau over the 21st Century. Water 2022, 14, 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020271

AMA Style

Zhao W, Zhao L, Tian L, Wolovick M, Moore JC. Simulating the Evolution of Da Anglong Glacier, Western Tibetan Plateau over the 21st Century. Water. 2022; 14(2):271. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020271

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhao, Wenqing, Liyun Zhao, Lide Tian, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore. 2022. "Simulating the Evolution of Da Anglong Glacier, Western Tibetan Plateau over the 21st Century" Water 14, no. 2: 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020271

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