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Multivariate Dam-Site Flood Frequency Analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir Considering Future Reservoir Regulation and Precipitation

1
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2
School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
3
Operation and Administration Center for River Basin Hydro Complex, China Three Gorges Corporation, Yichang 443133, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Maria Mimikou
Water 2022, 14(2), 138; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020138
Received: 30 November 2021 / Revised: 21 December 2021 / Accepted: 4 January 2022 / Published: 6 January 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Under a changing environment, the current hydrological design values derived from historical flood data for the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) might be no longer applicable due to the newly-built reservoirs upstream from the TGR and the changes in climatic conditions. In this study, we perform a multivariate dam-site flood frequency analysis for the TGR considering future reservoir regulation and summer precipitation. The Xinanjiang model and Muskingum routing method are used to reconstruct the dam-site flood variables during the operation period of the TGR. Then the distributions of the dam-site flood peak and flood volumes with durations of 3, 7, 15, and 30 days are built by Pearson type III (PIII) distribution with time-varying parameters, which are expressed as functions of both reservoir index and summer precipitation anomaly (SPA). The multivariate joint distribution of the dam-site flood variables is constructed by a 5-D C-vine copula. Finally, by using the criteria of annual average reliability (AAR) associated with the exceedance probabilities of OR, AND and Kendall, we derive the multivariate dam-site design floods for the TGR from the predicted flood distributions during the future operation period of the reservoir. The results indicate that the mean values of all flood variables are positively linked to SPA and negatively linked to RI. In the future, the flood mean values are predicted to present a dramatic decrease due to the regulation of the reservoirs upstream from the TGR. As the result, the design dam-site floods in the future will be smaller than those derived from historical flood distributions. This finding indicates that the TGR would have smaller flood risk in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: Three Gorges Reservoir; dam-site flood; multivariate flood frequency; C-vine copula; reservoir effect; summer precipitation anomaly Three Gorges Reservoir; dam-site flood; multivariate flood frequency; C-vine copula; reservoir effect; summer precipitation anomaly
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MDPI and ACS Style

Xiong, L.; Jiang, C.; Guo, S.; Li, S.; Li, R.; Li, W. Multivariate Dam-Site Flood Frequency Analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir Considering Future Reservoir Regulation and Precipitation. Water 2022, 14, 138. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020138

AMA Style

Xiong L, Jiang C, Guo S, Li S, Li R, Li W. Multivariate Dam-Site Flood Frequency Analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir Considering Future Reservoir Regulation and Precipitation. Water. 2022; 14(2):138. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020138

Chicago/Turabian Style

Xiong, Lihua, Cong Jiang, Shenglian Guo, Shuai Li, Rongrong Li, and Wenbin Li. 2022. "Multivariate Dam-Site Flood Frequency Analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir Considering Future Reservoir Regulation and Precipitation" Water 14, no. 2: 138. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020138

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