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Article

Influence of Dam Breach Parameter Statistical Definition on Resulting Rupture Maximum Discharge

1
Escuela de Ingeniería en Obras Civiles, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago 8370109, Chile
2
Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción 4030000, Chile
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Francesca Aureli, Andrea Maranzoni and Gabriella Petaccia
Water 2022, 14(11), 1776; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111776
Received: 5 May 2022 / Revised: 26 May 2022 / Accepted: 28 May 2022 / Published: 1 June 2022
However rare, dam breach occurrences are recently reported and associated with significant damage to life and property. The rupture of the structural dam wall generates severe flow rates that exceed spillway capacity consequently generating unprecedented flooding scenarios. The present research aims to assess the influence of the dam breach statistical configuration on the most relevant parameters to predict the rupture maximum discharge (RMD). McBreach© software was used to provide the necessary inputs for the operation of the HEC-RAS dam breach module. McBreach© automates the process of batch mode simulations providing a Monte Carlo approach to characterize the breach parameters stochastically. Thus, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential breach parameters, followed by an uncertainty assessment regarding their statistical definition of the resultant RMD. Analysis showed that the overtopping failure mode discharges are most sensitive to the breach formation time (tf) parameter, followed by the final height breach (Inv) and the final width of the breach (B), which combined are responsible for 85% of the rupture’s maximum discharge. Further results indicated highly variable RMD magnitudes (up to 300%) depending on the breach parameter’s statistical definition (i.e., probability density function and associated statistical parameters). The latter significantly impacts the estimated flood risk associated with the breach, the flood zone delimitation, preparation of emergency action plans (EAP) and scaling of future dam projects. Consequently, there is a plausible need for additional investigations to reduce this uncertainty and, therefore, the risk associated with it. View Full-Text
Keywords: dam breach; rupture maximum discharge; statistical definition dam breach; rupture maximum discharge; statistical definition
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MDPI and ACS Style

Bello, D.; Alcayaga, H.; Caamaño, D.; Pizarro, A. Influence of Dam Breach Parameter Statistical Definition on Resulting Rupture Maximum Discharge. Water 2022, 14, 1776. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111776

AMA Style

Bello D, Alcayaga H, Caamaño D, Pizarro A. Influence of Dam Breach Parameter Statistical Definition on Resulting Rupture Maximum Discharge. Water. 2022; 14(11):1776. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111776

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bello, Diego, Hernán Alcayaga, Diego Caamaño, and Alonso Pizarro. 2022. "Influence of Dam Breach Parameter Statistical Definition on Resulting Rupture Maximum Discharge" Water 14, no. 11: 1776. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111776

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