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Article

Metrics Assessment and Streamflow Modeling under Changing Climate in a Data-Scarce Heterogeneous Region: A Case Study of the Kabul River Basin

1
Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany
2
International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Lahore 53700, Pakistan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Renato Morbidelli
Water 2022, 14(11), 1697; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111697
Received: 11 April 2022 / Revised: 18 May 2022 / Accepted: 23 May 2022 / Published: 25 May 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Due to many uncertainties in hydrological data and modeling, the findings are frequently regarded as unreliable, especially in heterogeneous catchments such as the Kabul River Basin (KRB). Besides, statistical methods to assess the performance of the models have also been called into doubt in several studies. We evaluated the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model by statistical indicators including the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2) at single and multi-outlets in the KRB and assessed the streamflow under changing climate scenarios i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 (2020–2045). Because of the heterogeneous nature of the KRB, NSE and R2 performed poorly at multi-outlets. However, the KGE, as the basic objective function, fared much better at single-outlet. We conclude that KGE is the most crucial metric for streamflow evaluation in heterogeneous basins. Similarly, the mean and maximum annual streamflow is projected to decrease by 15.2–15.6% and 17.2–41.8% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; spatial heterogeneity; streamflow; Kabul River Basin; data-scarcity; performance metrics climate change; spatial heterogeneity; streamflow; Kabul River Basin; data-scarcity; performance metrics
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MDPI and ACS Style

Akhtar, F.; Borgemeister, C.; Tischbein, B.; Awan, U.K. Metrics Assessment and Streamflow Modeling under Changing Climate in a Data-Scarce Heterogeneous Region: A Case Study of the Kabul River Basin. Water 2022, 14, 1697. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111697

AMA Style

Akhtar F, Borgemeister C, Tischbein B, Awan UK. Metrics Assessment and Streamflow Modeling under Changing Climate in a Data-Scarce Heterogeneous Region: A Case Study of the Kabul River Basin. Water. 2022; 14(11):1697. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111697

Chicago/Turabian Style

Akhtar, Fazlullah, Christian Borgemeister, Bernhard Tischbein, and Usman Khalid Awan. 2022. "Metrics Assessment and Streamflow Modeling under Changing Climate in a Data-Scarce Heterogeneous Region: A Case Study of the Kabul River Basin" Water 14, no. 11: 1697. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111697

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