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Article

Prediction of River Stage Using Multistep-Ahead Machine Learning Techniques for a Tidal River of Taiwan

1
National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City 23143, Taiwan
2
Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei City 10617, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Achim A. Beylich
Water 2021, 13(7), 920; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070920
Received: 5 March 2021 / Revised: 23 March 2021 / Accepted: 23 March 2021 / Published: 27 March 2021
Time-series prediction of a river stage during typhoons or storms is essential for flood control or flood disaster prevention. Data-driven models using machine learning (ML) techniques have become an attractive and effective approach to modeling and analyzing river stage dynamics. However, relatively new ML techniques, such as the light gradient boosting machine regression (LGBMR), have rarely been applied to predict the river stage in a tidal river. In this study, data-driven ML models were developed under a multistep-ahead prediction framework and evaluated for river stage modeling. Four ML techniques, namely support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression (RFR), multilayer perceptron regression (MLPR), and LGBMR, were employed to establish data-driven ML models with Bayesian optimization. The models were applied to simulate river stage hydrographs of the tidal reach of the Lan-Yang River Basin in Northeastern Taiwan. Historical measurements of rainfall, river stages, and tidal levels were collected from 2004 to 2017 and used for training and validation of the four models. Four scenarios were used to investigate the effect of the combinations of input variables on river stage predictions. The results indicated that (1) the tidal level at a previous stage significantly affected the prediction results; (2) the LGBMR model achieves more favorable prediction performance than the SVR, RFR, and MLPR models; and (3) the LGBMR model could efficiently and accurately predict the 1–6-h river stage in the tidal river. This study provides an extensive and insightful comparison of four data-driven ML models for river stage forecasting that can be helpful for model selection and flood mitigation. View Full-Text
Keywords: river stage; data driven; machine learning; light gradient boosting; multistep ahead; Bayesian optimization river stage; data driven; machine learning; light gradient boosting; multistep ahead; Bayesian optimization
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MDPI and ACS Style

Guo, W.-D.; Chen, W.-B.; Yeh, S.-H.; Chang, C.-H.; Chen, H. Prediction of River Stage Using Multistep-Ahead Machine Learning Techniques for a Tidal River of Taiwan. Water 2021, 13, 920. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070920

AMA Style

Guo W-D, Chen W-B, Yeh S-H, Chang C-H, Chen H. Prediction of River Stage Using Multistep-Ahead Machine Learning Techniques for a Tidal River of Taiwan. Water. 2021; 13(7):920. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070920

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guo, Wen-Dar; Chen, Wei-Bo; Yeh, Sen-Hai; Chang, Chih-Hsin; Chen, Hongey. 2021. "Prediction of River Stage Using Multistep-Ahead Machine Learning Techniques for a Tidal River of Taiwan" Water 13, no. 7: 920. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070920

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