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Open AccessArticle

Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

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Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
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Northwestern Division US Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, OR 97232, USA
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College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
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Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Borja G. Reguero and Gary B. Griggs
Water 2021, 13(4), 545; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040545
Received: 19 January 2021 / Revised: 7 February 2021 / Accepted: 13 February 2021 / Published: 20 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise)
Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: coastal hazards exposure; alternative futures analysis; climate change; Envision; coastal erosion; coastal flooding; Tillamook County; Oregon coastal hazards exposure; alternative futures analysis; climate change; Envision; coastal erosion; coastal flooding; Tillamook County; Oregon
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MDPI and ACS Style

Mills, A.K.; Ruggiero, P.; Bolte, J.P.; Serafin, K.A.; Lipiec, E. Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis. Water 2021, 13, 545. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040545

AMA Style

Mills AK, Ruggiero P, Bolte JP, Serafin KA, Lipiec E. Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis. Water. 2021; 13(4):545. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040545

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mills, Alexis K.; Ruggiero, Peter; Bolte, John P.; Serafin, Katherine A.; Lipiec, Eva. 2021. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis" Water 13, no. 4: 545. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040545

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